HIP-4が無許可デプロイメントを開放、HyperliquidはPolymarketを倒せるか？

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Golem (@web3_golem)

Just after the World Cup ended, Hyperliquid dropped a "nuclear bomb" on the prediction market track.

On July 20, Hyperliquid announced that HIP-4 will support permissionless deployment in the future, similar to HIP-3. The staking requirement for HIP-4 deployers is also 500,000 HYPE, which will be locked for 6 months. HIP-4 deployers can set a fee share of up to 50% in the deployed markets. This feature will first be available on the testnet and then launched on the mainnet.

Hyperliquid announces permissionless deployment for HIP-4

Although Hyperliquid's announcement is only preliminary, and the specific launch time for HIP-4 permissionless deployment has not been confirmed, the market has already become excited after the news spread.

The reason Hyperliquid has become the world's largest platform for equity tokens and on-chain commodity perpetual contracts, even beating traditional financial markets to price IPOs, is largely due to its launch of HIP-3 in October 2025, which opened up third-party permissionless creation of perpetual contract markets.

Therefore, this time, investors believe Hyperliquid can once again leverage the power of "decentralization" to surpass all leaders in the prediction market track.

Who will be the next Trade.xyz?

Hyperliquid launched the HIP-4 market on May 2, 2026, marking its official entry into the prediction market track. Before the HIP-4 market launch, the market generally expected it to become Hyperliquid's next core narrative point. However, nearly three months since its actual launch, its performance can only be described as poor.

According to Hyperliquid's official data, the HIP-4 market has accumulated a total trading volume of only $216 million over the past three months, with an average daily volume of just $10 million. Its peak daily active users reached only 7,000, and total fee revenue was a mere $442.38. In comparison, according to DeFiLlama data, Polymarket's trading volume in the past month alone reached $4.587 billion, with fees of $50 million.

HIP-4 average daily volume and total volume

Not only are users and trading volume low, but the number of events with tradable outcomes on HIP-4 is also quite limited. Currently, the entire HIP-4 market has only 6 prediction markets, which is a drop in the bucket compared to Polymarket in both quantity and variety.

Currently tradable events on HIP-4

Given such a vast disparity in scale, Hyperliquid chose to rely on its path, following the successful experience of HIP-3. Since it couldn't succeed on its own, it decided to hand the stage over to the community and create another Trade.xyz within HIP-4.

Hyperliquid opening permissionless deployment for the HIP-4 market is equivalent to allowing users to independently create prediction market events on Polymarket. Hyperliquid founder Jeff also stated that permissionless deployment is particularly important for the growth of outcome markets (HIP-4) because the range of tradable outcomes is extremely broad. The number of independent events suitable for outcome trading far exceeds the number of underlying assets used for derivatives and real-world asset tokenization.

Deploying prediction market events by the community or third parties also offers greater flexibility. Currently, the creation of prediction market contracts is mainly handled by the team or reviewed by the community, which is not sufficiently decentralized. Team members also cannot cover all areas of interest comprehensively, especially for hot events in the real world. This model slows down the time from reacting to market trends to final execution and launch.

In the HIP-4 market, as long as enough HYPE tokens are staked, third parties can launch prediction market events according to their own standards without needing review by the Hyperliquid team. Hyperliquid also stipulates that it will not restrict multiple deployers from deploying identical events simultaneously, which will encourage healthy competition in the HIP-4 market. Only by providing users with more comprehensive events and deeper liquidity can one succeed in the competition.

Hyperliquid consistently adheres to a win-win strategy in its product philosophy. The HIP-3 market has already nurtured the behemoth Trade.xyz, which holds over 90% of the HIP-3 market share. The trading volume for the first 10 perpetual contract assets it launched all exceeded $10 billion.

Perhaps many teams are already gearing up. On the day Hyperliquid's mainnet opens permissionless deployment for HIP-4, we might witness a lively "Clash of the Titans."

Can Hyperliquid Disrupt the Prediction Market Landscape?

But can Hyperliquid truly rely on a single "trick" to succeed everywhere?

First, Hyperliquid is not what it used to be. The HYPE price has stabilized above $60, and the requirement for HIP-4 market deployers to stake 500,000 HYPE (approximately $30 million) has effectively shut out small startup teams. Today, a crypto project might not even raise $30 million in a single funding round. Prediction market projects with the capability to raise $30 million would likely prefer to develop their own prediction market platform.

Therefore, the high staking threshold for HIP-4 deployers could lead to a sharp decline in third-party competitors. Ultimately, only prediction market projects with "strength" might come to attract users. The number of tradable independent events will also be limited, severely hindering the innovation momentum of the entire HIP-4 market.

Secondly, Hyperliquid's timing in launching permissionless deployment for HIP-4 didn't even catch the last train. One main reason why 2026 has become a year of opportunity for the prediction market track is the dense schedule of sports events in recent years, especially the quadrennial World Cup. Various prediction markets have been focusing on World Cup matches. For example, on Polymarket, the total trading volume for just the Argentina vs. Spain match on July 20 alone reached $83.75 million.

However, Hyperliquid completely missed this crucial World Cup window, which is undoubtedly a significant strategic oversight. Even the success of the HIP-3 market came from a convergence of favorable timing, geographical advantages, and human effort. The international crude oil price volatility caused by the US-Iran conflict in February this year became an important catalyst for the HIP-3 market's development. On the first day of the war, which fell on a weekend, with traditional markets closed, traders urgently needing to adjust positions and hedge had to find new tradable markets. Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market became their first choice.

When Hyperliquid launched HIP-3, it did not emphasize its creation for equity tokens and commodity tokenization, but ultimately, it led to the rise of Trade.xyz and Hyperliquid's current leading position in the tokenized trading market. If Hyperliquid had not seized the opportunity presented by the US-Iran conflict, it might not have a place in today's tokenized trading market.

Similarly, having missed the World Cup opportunity, how confident can Hyperliquid be in disrupting the prediction market giants now?