MSX美股每日观察：Microsoft FY 2026 Q4 Cloud Business Explodes, Azure Growth Hits 43% Surpassing $100 Billion Milestone
- Quan điểm chính: Báo cáo tài chính mới nhất của Microsoft cho thấy doanh thu, lợi nhuận và tốc độ tăng trưởng của dịch vụ đám mây Azure đều vượt kỳ vọng, nhưng chi tiêu vốn đang tăng tốc. Đồng thời, lợi nhuận ròng GAAP cao hơn dữ liệu đã điều chỉnh do khoản thu nhập một lần từ đầu tư cổ phiếu AI, cần chú ý đến tính bền vững của tăng trưởng biên lợi nhuận.
- Các yếu tố chính:
- Doanh thu quý 2 đạt 90 tỷ USD, tăng 18% so với cùng kỳ, vượt kỳ vọng 87,723 tỷ USD; EPS điều chỉnh là 4,74 USD, vượt kỳ vọng 4,25 USD.
- Tốc độ tăng trưởng dịch vụ đám mây Azure so với cùng kỳ đạt 43%, vượt xa mức kỳ vọng khoảng 40%, doanh thu cả năm lần đầu tiên vượt 100 tỷ USD.
- EPS GAAP là 4,81 USD, cao hơn EPS đã điều chỉnh, nguyên nhân chính là do các khoản đầu tư cổ phiếu AI như OpenAI tạo ra thu nhập ròng một lần, không phải tăng trưởng từ hoạt động kinh doanh cốt lõi.
- Tốc độ tăng trưởng Azure quý sau được dự báo là 45%, vượt xa mức đồng thuận 41,4%, nhưng hướng dẫn chi tiêu vốn vượt 50 tỷ USD, vẫn đang tăng tốc.
- Nghĩa vụ thực hiện còn lại (RPO) tăng vọt 84% so với cùng kỳ, số lượng ghế Copilot trả phí vượt 30 triệu, cho thấy tín hiệu nhu cầu mạnh mẽ.
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Today's Observation
Microsoft's revenue, profit, and cloud growth all beat expectations this quarter. Revenue reached $90 billion, up 18% YoY. Azure growth was 43%, significantly exceeding the ~40% expectation, and Azure's annual revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time. Interestingly, this quarter's GAAP EPS ($4.81) was higher than the adjusted EPS ($4.74). The main reason was that AI equity investments like OpenAI turned into a one-time net gain, reversing the previous quarters' drag from significant losses. Furthermore, the next quarter's guidance was also strong: Azure growth guidance of 45% far exceeded the consensus estimate of 41.4%, but capital expenditure continues to accelerate.
Data in a Minute
• Revenue $90.007 billion, +18% YoY, beating the $87.723 billion estimate
• Adjusted EPS $4.74 beat the $4.25 estimate; GAAP EPS $4.81 was higher due to one-time gains from AI equity investments
• Azure +43% YoY, beating the ~40% estimate, surpassing $100 billion annually for the first time
• RPO +84% YoY; Copilot paid seats surpassed 30 million
• Operating profit $40.6 billion, +18% YoY, with a margin of approximately 45%
• Next quarter guidance: Azure growth 45% (beating the 41.4% estimate); capital expenditure over $50 billion
MSX View
A key detail in Microsoft's earnings this quarter is GAAP surpassing non-GAAP. That was a one-time benefit from AI equity investments, unrelated to core operations. In reality, the solid growth lies in non-GAAP EPS and operating profit (+18% YoY). Setting that aside, Azure guidance significantly exceeded expectations, RPO surged by 84%, and Copilot surpassed 30 million users — strong demand-side signals. The only concern is that capital expenditure continues to accelerate, and depreciation periods are being extended. How much of the reported margin is real operating leverage versus accounting embellishment is worth monitoring closely.
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