币股风向标丨Strategy现金储备增至32.3亿美元暂停增持BTC；先锋集团等资管机构增持Strategy股票（7月21日）
- 核心观点：当前全球资本市场面临高波动与风险偏好下降，AI泡沫担忧推动美股空头仓位创历史新高，加密概念股在监管真空下缺乏增量机会，同时比特币财库公司整体配置速度显著放缓。
- 关键要素：
- 美股空头仓位创新高：标普500空头比例达3.79%，罗素3000达6.3%，均创2010年以来最高，反映投资者对AI驱动的科技股持续性与市场高估值存疑。
- 美联储加息预期升温：美联储官员释放鹰派信号，市场对加息预期增强，叠加费城半导体指数较历史高点下跌超20%，科技股领跌大盘，资金风格切换明显。
- 加密概念股泡沫出清：场内活跃的头部玩家中，仅少数有持续募资或自我造血能力，短期内缺乏监管政策利好刺激，建议仅做短期反弹博弈。
- 上市公司BTC买入骤降：全球上市公司上周仅净买入133万美元BTC，环比减少98.4%，Strategy未购买BTC且现金储备增至32.3亿美元，整体配置动能减弱。
- ETH财库公司BitMine持续增持：BitMINE ETH持仓增至578万枚（占流通量4.8%），其加密资产及现金价值达115亿美元，上周回购550万股，显示对以太坊的长期信心。
- 部分机构逆势增持Strategy股票：先锋集团旗下VOE基金、Swedbank AB及Capital Group旗下ETF均增持MSTR股票，虽看空市场但仍看好其比特币财库策略。
- 山寨币财库表现低迷：HypeStrat本周未调整财库，其mNAV降至长期低点0.87倍，税后仅为0.80倍，显示DAT模式相关资产承压。
Editor's Note: In last week's "Stock & Crypto Market Compass" article, we provided a brief commentary on markets including South Korean stocks, US stocks, A-shares, and crypto-related stocks.
Currently, affected by factors such as interest rate hikes, high leverage, and liquidity tightening, the South Korean stock market remains in a period of high volatility risk. It may enter what analysts previously described as a "sideways decline" in the short term to squeeze out bubbles. The US stock market remains highly dependent on extreme geopolitical factors such as the US-Iran situation and Trump's statements. The successful IPO of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) did not serve as a catalyst for A-shares to establish an independent trend, and its pre-market price has already declined to some extent, with the memory sector continuing to face pressure. In summary, the stock market is in a period of aggressive deleveraging; do not increase loan or other financing leverage ratios to participate in capital market investments.
Regarding crypto-related stocks, after a year of development, the DAT model has largely completed its bubble cleansing. Among the active leading players still in the market, only a few have sustained fundraising capabilities or self-sustaining cash flow. Without favorable regulatory policy catalysts, it is difficult to see a turnaround in the short term. Among US-compliant stocks such as Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood, only Robinhood has an incremental market. The first two have extremely limited cash flow generation and growth potential. It is recommended to invest cautiously, strictly control positions, and only engage in short-term rebound trading.
For more information on stock and crypto markets, please visit MSX.COM. (Note from Odaily: This content does not constitute investment advice and is for educational and exchange purposes only.)
US Stocks Remain the Global Capital Market Barometer: AI Bubble Spurs Short Bets, Rate Hike Expectations Re-emerge
AI Bubble Concerns Intensify, Short Bets on US Stocks Hit Highest Since 2010
As concerns over risks related to artificial intelligence intensify, bearish bets on US equities are climbing to historic highs, reflecting market skepticism about the sustainability of the current rally.
Data shows that short positions in S&P 500 index constituents as a percentage of free float have approached 3.79%, the highest level since S3 Partners began tracking the data in 2010. Meanwhile, the short interest ratio for Russell 3000 index constituents recently rose to 6.3%, also a record. Previously, the S&P 500 had risen approximately 18% since late March, driving the market higher. However, some investors are beginning to worry about the sustainability of the AI-driven tech rally and the risk of a market correction in a high-valuation environment.
Analysts point out that the significant increase in short positions reflects investor concerns about AI bubble risks, earnings expectations, and market concentration, and could also be an important signal of increased market volatility. However, historical data shows that high levels of short interest do not necessarily mean an imminent market decline. If corporate earnings continue to improve or AI investments yield better-than-expected returns, short covering could conversely drive stock prices higher.
Analysis: Rate Hike Expectations and Capital Rotation Lead Tech Leaders to Drag Down Broader Market
Last Friday, the three major US indices opened lower, with tech stocks broadly declining. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 20% from its historical closing high, potentially confirming an entry into bear market territory. SK Hynix's ADR broke below its IPO price of $149 for the first time, and SpaceX's stock price fell 38% from its peak, with its market cap potentially evaporating approximately $1 trillion from its peak. AMD fell over 7%, Intel dropped over 6%, and TSMC fell over 5%. Some analysts stated that the ongoing correction in chip stocks has gone beyond fundamental factors, being more influenced by capital style rotation and shifts in market preference.
Additionally, Fed Chair Walsh's dissatisfaction with inflation during the hearing increased market expectations for rate hikes. "Hawkish" signals from other Fed officials also exacerbated market tension. Among them, US official Logan explicitly called for a rate hike; US official Schmid warned that the risk of further inflation acceleration in the coming months remains. On the geopolitical front, the prospect of a US-Iran war remains uncertain, dampening market risk appetite.
Weekly Updates on Publicly Traded Crypto-Related Companies
Representative Companies with BTC Treasury
According to SoSoValue data, as of 8:00 AM EST on July 20, 2026, the total net Bitcoin purchases by global public companies (excluding mining companies) last week amounted to $1.33 million, a decrease of 98.4% compared to the previous week.
According to official documents, Strategy did not purchase Bitcoin last week. Strategy's USD reserves increased by approximately $225 million to about $3.23 billion.
Japanese public company Metaplanet did not purchase Bitcoin last week.
Additionally, one other company purchased Bitcoin last week. Asset management firm Strive announced on July 20 that it spent $1.15 million to purchase 21 Bitcoins at a price of $63,221, bringing its total holdings to approximately 19,921 BTC.
Capital holding company ORANGE JUICE announced the completion of a $40 million financing round, with the proceeds intended for purchasing Bitcoin.
As of press time, the total Bitcoin held by the tracked global public companies (excluding mining companies) stands at 1,139,656 BTC, an increase of 0.002% from last week, with a current market value of approximately $73.76 billion, accounting for 5.7% of Bitcoin's circulating market cap.
Investor Base Expands, Capital B Announces 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split
BitcoinTreasuries.NET reported that Bitcoin treasury company Capital B (ALCPB) announced a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, effective September 8, to support institutional development and make its stock accessible to a broader investor base.
BitcoinTreasuries.NET reported that public company Bitcoin Japan Corporation (8105.T) raised $60 million through convertible bonds and allocated $4.08 million for its initial BTC treasury purchase.
Bitcoin treasury startup ORANGE JUICE announced on July 15, 2026, the completion of a $40 million financing round. Grupo Salinas founder and chairman Ricardo Salinas served as the cornerstone investor, with Bitcoin investors such as Jeff Booth and Lyn Alden also participating.
ORANGE JUICE plans to acquire small businesses with annual cash flows between $1 million and $10 million, using a portion of retained earnings for new acquisitions and Bitcoin purchases. The company stated it will rely less on debt and equity issuance, primarily funding growth through operating cash flow.
Ruben Zweiban will serve as Operating Partner responsible for daily operations. He is a former investment banker at BofA Securities, equity research analyst at JPMorgan Asset Management, and former Chief Investment Officer of a billion-dollar private multi-family office. The company also plans to seek a public listing in the future.
Multiple Institutions Increase Holdings of Strategy Stock: Vanguard Group Funds, Swedbank AB, Capital Group's Growth ETF (CGGR)
Asset management giant Vanguard Group's Mid-Cap Value ETF (VOE) disclosed that it increased its holdings of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) by 83,093 shares, valued at $8.16 million; it currently holds a total of 2.12 million shares, valued at $209 million.
Swedbank AB, with $264 billion in assets, stated that it increased its holdings of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy by 8,278 shares, bringing its total position to 90,590 shares, valued at $8.81 million.
Capital Group, managing $3.3 trillion in assets, disclosed via its Growth ETF (CGGR) stated that it increased its holdings of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) by 80,240 shares, valued at $7.78 million. It currently holds a total of 1.66 million shares, valued at $161.39 million. Capital Group is the world's largest active fund manager.
Representative Companies with ETH Treasury
Ethereum treasury company BitMine stated that its ETH holdings have reached 5.78 million coins, accounting for approximately 4.8% of Ethereum's circulating supply, nearing its cumulative target of holding 5% of all ETH. The company added 7,430 ETH in the past week.
BitMine stated that the value of its crypto assets, cash, and marketable securities stands at $11.5 billion, including 207 Bitcoins and $385 million in cash and securities. Approximately 4.9 million of its ETH is staked through its validator network and partners, representing about 85% of its treasury.
BitMine also repurchased 5.5 million shares last week under its previously authorized $4 billion buyback program. Earlier this month, BitMine stated that its institutional staking platform, MAVAN, generated $45.7 million in staking and validator revenue in the three months ended May 31, accounting for 98% of the company's total revenue.
Representative Companies with SOL Treasury
None.
Representative Companies with Altcoin Treasury
mNAV Declines to Long-Term Lows; HypeStrat Did Not Adjust Company Treasury This Week
HyperliquidNews reported that DAT HypeStrat did not adjust its company treasury this week and did not purchase Hyperliquid's native token or PURR; its mNAV has declined to long-term lows, currently at 0.87x, and 0.80x after tax.
