BIT 투자 연구: 유동성이 사라지고 있는데, 비트코인이 2022년의 바닥 다지기 장세를 재현할까?
- 핵심 의견: 현재 시장은 정책 기대치의 매파적 전환과 유동성 지속 축소가 공동으로 주도하는 조정 국면에 있다. 비트코인은 단기적으로 압박을 받지만, 조정 과정은 차기 강세장을 위한 사이클 저점 기반을 마련할 수 있다.
- 핵심 요소:
- 연방준비제도 의장 케빈 워시의 매파적 신호가 완화 기대를 깨뜨렸다. 인플레이션 4.2%는 목표치를 크게 웃돌며 금리 인상 가능성이 대두되고 위험 프리미엄이 상승하고 있다.
- 추세 모델에 따르면 비트코인이 73,700달러 미만이면 약세 전망이 유지된다. 62,446달러는 핵심 지지선이며, 이를 이탈하면 하락이 가속화될 수 있다.
- 일일 거래량은 약 500억 달러로 위축되었으며, 이는 2025년 최고치(약 2,000억 달러)의 25%에 불과해 유동성이 크게 줄어들었다.
- 스테이블코인 USDT와 USDC의 12개월 성장률은 정점 대비 각각 약 20%로 하락했으며, 6개월 성장률은 0에 가까워 신규 자금 유입이 부족하다.
- Strategy가 STRC 우선주를 통한 비트코인 매수로 인한 지지 효과는 점차 사라지고 있으며, 시장의 30일 롤링 자금 흐름은 여전히 순유출 상태를 유지하고 있다.
The current market is in an adjustment phase driven jointly by policy expectations and liquidity changes. The easing of geopolitical tensions and the better-than-expected performance of the SpaceX IPO once pushed Bitcoin to rebound from technically oversold levels. However, the unexpected hawkish signals from the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, stripped the market of its previously anticipated loose policy support. At the same time, stablecoin liquidity continues to shrink, with a clear lack of fresh capital inflows, and the market has re-entered the typical low-volume summer trading period.
From current pricing, the market still lacks the macro catalysts needed to fuel a new rally. Daily trading volumes have shrunk significantly compared to the peak periods of 2025. The growth rate of stablecoins continues to slow down, and the supporting effect from Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) Bitcoin purchases financed through STRC preferred stock offerings is also gradually diminishing. Under the combined pressure of policy uncertainty, seasonal weakness, and liquidity contraction, Bitcoin's short-term trajectory remains under pressure.
Hawkish Sentiment Intensifies: Policy Uncertainty Suppresses Market Risk Appetite
The market had widely anticipated the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to deliver dovish signals, but the FOMC unexpectedly pivoted hawkishly. Several committee members hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes this year if inflationary pressures persist, and Warsh also clearly expressed his determination to rebuild policy credibility.
The trend model indicates that as long as Bitcoin remains below $73,700, the overall trend stays bearish, with key resistance levels gradually shifting downwards over time. Furthermore, Warsh's refusal to disclose his personal dot plot projections has left the market without a clear policy anchor, causing risk premiums to rise. Historically, this type of uncertainty tends to be unfavorable for sustained Bitcoin rebounds.
From a technical perspective, $62,446 remains a crucial support level. A break below this point could accelerate the downward trend. However, similar to the bottoming process in 2022, the market might also undergo a prolonged period of sideways consolidation, gradually completing the formation of a cyclical low.
Liquidity Continues to Contract: Insufficient Fresh Capital Limits Rebound Potential
Beyond macro factors, insufficient liquidity is becoming a core constraint for the current market. Daily trading volumes have occasionally shrunk to around $50 billion, compared to the average daily volume of approximately $200 billion during the upward phase from July to October 2025. This represents only about 25% of the previous peak.
Stablecoin growth has also slowed significantly. The 12-month rolling growth rates for USDT and USDC peaked at 52% and 122% respectively in late 2025, but have now fallen back to around 20% year-over-year. The 6-month growth rate is even closer to zero, reflecting a significant weakening in new liquidity injection.
Meanwhile, the capital inflows from Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy have also weakened noticeably compared to earlier periods. Previously, Strategy's aggressive issuance of STRC preferred stocks had driven Bitcoin up by about $15,000, an increase of nearly 20%. However, this supporting effect is gradually fading. The current 30-day rolling net fund flow remains negative. Without strong new catalysts, a sustained upward trend is still difficult to establish.
Overall, the inflation rate of 4.2% remains well above the Fed's 2.0% target. Under the combined influence of a hawkish stance, seasonally weak summer dynamics, and insufficient liquidity, Bitcoin lacks sufficient support to sustain levels above $60,000 in the short term. Nevertheless, as the market gradually completes its cleansing process, this adjustment phase could still establish a cyclical low this summer. The price may not immediately initiate a new rally, but this process might be laying the groundwork for the next bull cycle.
The above views are partly from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
