赤字、インフレ、そして新FRB議長：米国債利回り5%突破の深層ロジックと市場のリセット

Key Data: 10-year yield 4.61% to 4.687% · 30-year yield 5.2%, highest since 2007 · S&P 500 down for three consecutive days · Warsh confirmed as new Fed Chair · "One Big Beautiful Bill" projected to increase deficit by $2.8 trillion · 62% of fund managers expect 30-year yield to reach 6%

Section 1 — What is Happening Now

During the week of May 15-19, 2026, long-term US Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.61% on May 18, a one-year high, before rising further to 4.687% on May 19. The 30-year Treasury yield soared to 5.2%, its highest level since 2007. The S&P 500 fell over 1% on May 15 and dropped another 0.67% on May 19, posting its third consecutive daily decline. The Nasdaq fell 0.90%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 index declined 1.33%.

Multiple factors are converging simultaneously. Inflation data exceeded expectations. Wholesale prices rose 6% year-over-year in April, marking the highest upstream inflationary pressure in years. The US debt trajectory continues to deteriorate. A new Federal Reserve chair takes over the most complex inflation situation in years. A massive tax cut bill is projected to add trillions of dollars to the national debt over the next decade.

The bond market is shouting loudly, and the stock market is finally starting to listen.

Educational Note: The US Treasury yield is the interest rate the US government pays to borrow money. When yields rise, it means the government must pay higher interest to attract creditors – either because investors demand higher risk compensation, or because bond supply exceeds market demand.

Section 2 — Four Reasons for Rising Yields

Reason One: Stubbornly Persistent Inflation

The April inflation data released on May 15 exceeded market expectations, directly triggering an immediate surge in yields. April wholesale prices rose 6% year-over-year, the highest upstream inflation record in years, indicating that price pressures are not just at the consumer level but are propagating upward throughout the entire supply chain.

Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a total of 175 basis points – 100 basis points in the second half of 2024 and another 75 basis points in the second half of 2025. Under normal circumstances, long-term yields should follow downward. Yet the reality is the opposite: the 10-year yield has only fallen about 35 basis points, while the 30-year yield has risen instead of falling, hitting 5.2%. Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert Financial, stated in a widely circulated article that this divergence is "unprecedented": "Historical data dating back to 1990 shows no such anomalous decoupling between Fed policy and long-term yields."

Current market pricing shows the probability of a rate hike before December 2026 has risen to 48%, compared to just 14% a week ago. The probability of a rate cut is now below 1%. The bond market's expectation is no longer a "pause in rate cuts" but is beginning to price in a "return to rate hikes."

Reason Two: A New Fed Chair Takes Over a Crisis

On May 13, 2026, the US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair by a vote of 54 to 45, the most contentious confirmation vote for a Fed chair in history. His term officially began on May 15 when Jerome Powell's term expired. Powell chose to remain as a member of the Fed's Board of Governors.

When Warsh took over, US inflation had exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five consecutive years, energy prices remained high due to the US-Iran conflict, and the bond market was calling for a clear return to fiscal discipline. JPMorgan now expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026, with the earliest possible rate hike being 25 basis points in the third quarter of 2027. Warsh stated at his confirmation hearing that the Fed needs a "different framework for dealing with inflation." His first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, and every statement made then will move the markets.

Reason Three: The US Debt Problem Intensifies

The US annual fiscal deficit is approximately $2 trillion, and interest payments on the existing debt alone are already close to $1 trillion per year. The Treasury Department estimates it needs to borrow $189 billion in the second quarter of 2026 alone, $79 billion higher than projections made just a few months ago. Actual borrowing in the first quarter of 2026 was $577 billion, and the projected borrowing for the third quarter is $671 billion.

Every bond issuance must find willing buyers. When market supply exceeds natural demand, the only mechanism to restore balance is higher yields. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the "safety premium" for Treasuries – the additional demand they enjoy as the world’s safest asset – is fading. Once the safety premium disappears, yields must rise to compensate for the gap.

Reason Four: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" and Moody's Downgrade

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB), signed into law in 2025, made the tax cuts from Trump's first term permanent and added new tax reduction provisions. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade. If all temporary provisions are made permanent, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the cost could reach $4 to $5 trillion.

On May 16, 2025, Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, becoming the last of the three major rating agencies to downgrade the US. S&P downgraded the US back in 2011, followed by Fitch in 2023. Moody's cited the failure of successive administrations to effectively address the continuously rising deficit and interest costs. By 2035, federal government interest payments are projected to account for 30% of revenue, compared to 18% in 2024 and just 9% in 2021.

A Bank of America survey released on May 19 showed that 62% of global fund managers expect the 30-year Treasury yield to eventually reach 6%, the most pessimistic consensus on bonds since the end of 1999. The term "bond vigilantes" has re-entered market discourse – a concept coined by Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni in the 1980s to describe traders who punish fiscal profligacy by selling bonds, pushing yields higher to force governments to confront fiscal issues. Today's version of "bond vigilantes," as Malek puts it, is undertaking "a slow and systematic campaign of pressure."

Educational Note: A yield curve is a graph showing the relationship between yields on Treasury bonds of different maturities. When long-term yields rise much faster than short-term yields, it is called a "bear steepener." This usually means investors are worried about long-term inflation and fiscal sustainability, even if short-term policy rates are relatively stable.

Section 3 — Why Rising Yields Impact the Stock Market

Rising yields pressure the stock market through four distinct channels.

Channel One: The Discounting Effect

The value of every stock equals the present value of all its future earnings discounted back to today. The higher the discount rate, the lower the present value. Rising yields directly push up the discount rate, hitting high-growth tech stocks the hardest because most of their value comes from future earnings expected years down the line. 2022 is the best reference: the 10-year yield soared from 1.5% to 4.3%, the Nasdaq fell 33%, and Nvidia was cut in half, dropping over 50%. The vast majority of these losses came from valuation multiple compression, not deteriorating earnings. The pace in 2026 is more gradual, but the mechanism is the same.

Channel Two: The Competition Effect and Equity Risk Premium

When risk-free government bonds offer a 30-year yield of 5.2%, stocks must offer a significantly higher return to convince investors to take on additional risk. Currently, the S&P 500's earnings yield is around 4.2%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.6%. This means investors are actually getting a lower return from stocks than from risk-free government bonds – an unusual and unsustainable state. The equity risk premium has been compressed to near zero. Historical patterns show this state eventually corrects either through falling stock prices or falling yields. Currently, yields are not falling.

Channel Three: The Borrowing Cost Effect

When Treasury yields rise, borrowing costs across the entire economy increase. As of mid-May 2026, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have risen to between 6.34% and 6.54%. Corporate financing costs rise, and consumer spending on housing, cars, and credit cards is constrained. The signal from the bond market ultimately reaches every household and every corporate balance sheet.

Channel Four: The Strong Dollar and International Capital Flow Effect

Rising US yields attract global capital towards US dollar assets, pushing up the dollar's exchange rate and putting pressure on the overseas earnings of US multinationals when converted back. For Asian investors, capital flowing to the US puts pressure on Asian currencies, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), and yield-bearing assets. This round of rising yields has a global resonance: the UK 10-year yield broke through 5.1%, Japanese government bond yields rose to 2.71%, their highest since 1997, and German Bund yields rose in tandem. When global bonds are sold off together, the pressure on stock markets is amplified everywhere.

Educational Note: The equity risk premium is the extra return investors demand from stocks relative to the risk-free rate. Currently, the S&P 500's earnings yield is about 4.2%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.6%, meaning stocks are technically less attractive than bonds. This state of compressed premium has historically been a leading signal for stock market weakness, as capital tends to flow towards higher-yielding, lower-risk assets.

Section 4 — Impact on Different Types of Investors

Stock Investors

The environment is less favorable for high-valuation growth stocks. Banks, insurance companies, and value-oriented cyclical stocks often perform relatively better in a rising yield environment because wider net interest margins benefit financial stocks. Tech stocks, REITs, and utility stocks face the most pressure.

Bond Investors

Need to note: Short-term bonds currently offer attractive yields close to 4% to 4.5% with lower price volatility risk. Most analysts prefer medium-term bonds with 5 to 10-year maturities, viewing them as the best balance between yield and risk management. Long-term bonds with 20 to 30-year maturities face the most downside price risk if yields continue to rise.

Yield-Seeking Investors

Are experiencing the most attractive fixed-income environment in over a decade. A 10-year Treasury yield of 4.6% represents substantial, real fixed income. Investment-grade corporate bonds offer spreads over Treasuries, providing even richer returns. For investors who plan to hold to maturity, locking in yields at current levels is far more attractive than any opportunity available in 2020 or 2021.

Section 5 — Key Developments to Watch

Warsh's first FOMC meeting, June 16-17. This is the most important near-term event. Any statement he makes about policy direction – whether tolerating inflation or leaning towards tightening – will have a major impact on both bond and stock markets.

US Inflation Data. Monthly CPI and PCE data will determine whether rate hike expectations strengthen further. April wholesale prices have already risen 6%, indicating upstream pressures have not abated.

US Treasury Bond Auction Results. If auction demand is weak, it signals that the supply-demand imbalance persists, further reinforcing upward pressure on yields.

The 30-year yield moving towards 6%. Ian Lyngen, Head of Rates Strategy at BMO, previously stated that if the 30-year yield consistently stays above 5.25%, it would trigger a "more persistent correction" in stock valuations. The 30-year yield is currently at 5.2%. Bank of America's consensus forecast target is 6%. The tipping point for a structural valuation reassessment in the stock market is approaching.

Framework for Positioning in the Current Environment:

Stock Investors: Consider a moderate rotation from long-duration growth stocks towards value stocks, financials, and sectors with robust current earnings.

Bond Investors: Favor medium-term bonds and high-quality investment-grade credit over long-term government bonds.

Yield-Seeking Investors: Current yield levels represent a rare opportunity to lock in superior returns seen only once in over a decade.

The equity risk premium is near zero. The 30-year yield is at its highest since 2007. A new Fed chair takes on the inflation challenge. Bond vigilantes have returned. The message from the bond market could not be clearer: the era of cheap government borrowing is over. Whether the stock market can smoothly digest this reality, or whether some link eventually breaks, will be the central question for markets in the second half of 2026.

The above investment views are cited from a BIT特邀 analyst and do not represent the official position of BIT.

BIT (formerly Matrixport) US stock business, since its launch in February 2026, has seen its Assets Under Management (AUM) surpass $200 million. Driven by AI, the US stock market continues to attract global investor attention. Benefiting from over 7 years of institutional service DNA and accumulated regulatory licenses, BIT has successfully bridged the gap between digital assets and traditional finance, helping investors quickly capture investment opportunities.

Data Sources

CNBC, "30-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Above 5.19%, Highest Since Before Financial Crisis," May 19, 2026. CNN Business, "30-Year US Treasury Yield Rises to Highest Since 2007," May 19, 2026. Federal Reserve FRED Database, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, May 18, 2026. TheStreet, Market Daily, May 19, 2026 & May 15, 2026. CNBC, "Kevin Warsh Confirmed as New Federal Reserve Chair," May 13, 2026. Yahoo Finance, "Warsh Confirmed as New Fed Chair Amid Rising Inflation," May 2026. JPMorgan Global Research, "Fed's Next Move," April 2026. Fortune Magazine, "The Bond Market is Shouting," May 2026. HeyGotrade, "10-Year Yield at 4.6%: How Rising Yields Reshape the 2026 Stock Market," May 2026. Mercer Media, "30-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Above 5.1%," May 2026. Allianz Global Investors, Moody's Downgrade Analysis, 2025. Fidelity Investments, US Credit Rating Downgrade, May 2025. Wikipedia, "One Big Beautiful Bill" entry. Price, "Impact of US Tax Bill on Economy and Bond Market," July 2025. BofA Global Research, "Impact of Interest Rate Changes on Bond Markets," April 2026.
Data as of May 19, 2026.

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