速览24岁“AI股神”的最新布局：六成仓位对冲半导体下行

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

No application for confidentiality! No complete liquidation either! The fund Situational Awareness LP, run by the newly-minted "AI stock guru" Leopold Aschenbrenner, officially released its 13F filing this evening.

• Odaily Note: For more on Leopold Aschenbrenner’s personal story, see details in “SBF's Protege Turned $225 Million into $5.5 Billion in a Year.”

This means our first assumption from this morning’s article, “To Be Revealed Today at the Earliest, the Market Awaits the 'AI Stock Guru's' Answer,” was correct. Situational Awareness LP filed late on the May 15 deadline, preventing the SEC from posting it on its website that day. The market had to endure another weekend until the SEC returned on Monday to make the fund’s holdings public.

According to this latest 13F filing, as of March 31, 2026, Situational Awareness LP’s nominal holdings totaled $13.7 billion, more than doubling (148%) from $5.52 billion on December 31 last year.

• Odaily Note: It is important to note that in calculating 13F filings for US stocks, the market value of options typically reflects the "notional value" of the underlying stocks, not the actual premium cost paid by the fund. This means that while the fund built a semiconductor hedging wall with tens of billions in nominal assets, its actual cash cost (maximum loss) was much smaller, typical of high-leverage macro hedging.

Furthermore, net fund inflows accounted for 32.51% of the total portfolio value this quarter, indicating that the fund's rapid growth was not just due to portfolio appreciation but also significant new capital subscriptions from external investors.

Drastic Portfolio Restructuring

The filing also reveals that Situational Awareness LP executed a major portfolio overhaul in the first quarter.

• New Purchases: 23 stocks (including options);
• Added To: 9 stocks;
• Sold out of: 10 stocks (including options);
• Reduced holdings in: 4 stocks (including options).

New Purchases: 60% Allocation Hedging Against Semiconductor Downturn

• Odaily Note: The chart above only covers new stocks with a value over $100 million. All 23 new stocks can be viewed via this “link.”

Let’s first look at the new purchases, which contain the most striking information in Situational Awareness LP’s entire 13F report: In the first quarter, the fund systematically hedged risks in the AI semiconductor and computing hardware sectors through large-scale put option positions.

Let’s look directly at the data:

• SMH PUT (VanEck Semiconductor ETF Put): 14.94% ($2.04 billion) – Largest new position.
• NVDA PUT (Nvidia Put): 11.47% ($1.56 billion) – Second largest new position.
• ORCL PUT (Oracle Put): 7.84%.
• AVGO PUT (Broadcom Put): 7.36%.
• AMD PUT (AMD Put): 7.09%.

These top five put option positions alone accounted for 48.7% of Situational Awareness LP’s total $13.7 billion in nominal holdings. Adding put options on Micron (MU), TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), and Intel (INTC), over 60% of the fund’s nominal positions were betting on or hedging against a decline or sharp volatility in core AI hardware stocks.

Furthermore, it’s noteworthy that Situational Awareness LP simultaneously bought both call and put options for the same stocks. For example, while buying Micron puts (MU PUT, 4.27%), it also bought MU CALLS (3.09%); while buying TSMC puts (TSM PUT, 3.91%), it also bought TSM CALLS (2.59%).

This is a common two-way betting strategy used by hedge funds. It suggests the fund believes that Micron (memory chips) and TSMC (foundry) could experience significant stock price swings far exceeding market expectations in upcoming 2026 earnings reports or industry cycles, driven by geopolitical factors or extreme supply-demand imbalances. If the swing in one direction is large enough, both sides can be profitable.

Additions: Still Bullish on SanDisk, CRWV in Common Stock

For additions, Situational Awareness LP did not use options but increased holdings in 9 stocks through common stock purchases.

In Q1, Situational Awareness LP slightly increased its SanDisk (SNDK) position by 85,000 shares, bringing the total to 1.14 million shares, with a market value of $724 million, representing 5.30% of the entire portfolio. This is one of the very few super-heavyweight positions held entirely as common stock in Situational Awareness LP’s portfolio.

Another noteworthy move is that Situational Awareness LP significantly added over 1.07 million shares of CoreWeave (CRWV) in Q1, pushing the holding value to $556 million, accounting for 4.07% of the portfolio. CoreWeave is one of the most closely watched infrastructure companies in the AI GPU cloud services space and a key partner in the Nvidia ecosystem. Following its IPO, Situational Awareness LP quickly incorporated it as a core holding and aggressively increased its position. This suggests that while the fund is shorting Nvidia’s short-term valuation (via puts), it remains extremely bullish on cloud giants that directly convert GPUs into computing power rented out to major AI models.

Additionally, Situational Awareness LP added positions in computing or power infrastructure companies like KEEL, IREN, APLD, RIOT, CLSK, and BTDR, continuing Leopold Aschenbrenner’s advocated logic that "electricity is the new oil."

Liquidations: Exiting Intel Call Leverage, Withdrawing from Optical Communication

Regarding liquidations, Situational Awareness LP’s biggest move was completely eliminating its leverage on Intel call options (INTC CALL). In the previous reporting period, Situational Awareness LP had allocated over 13% of its portfolio to Intel call options (up to 20.23 million option contracts), representing a highly leveraged directional bet. This quarter, it completely exited this position, retaining a negligible stake (0.07%) in common stock.

Furthermore, Situational Awareness LP fully liquidated LITE (8.68% weight in the prior period) and COHR (1.61% weight in the prior period) in Q1. LITE and COHR are both global leaders in optical communication chips and optical transceivers. This liquidation indicates that Situational Awareness LP is withdrawing from the AI optical module/network hardware sector.

Situational Awareness LP also liquidated CIFR (2.80% weight in the prior period) and HUT (0.72% weight in the prior period) in Q1, both crypto mining companies (along with CORZ in the reduction section below). Considering the additions to similar companies like RIOT, CLSK, and BTDR, this might simply be a routine portfolio adjustment.

Reductions: Significant Profit-Taking on BE

Finally, looking at the reduction part, Bloom Energy (BE) was Situational Awareness LP's largest disclosed holding in the previous 13F filing. In Q1, the fund reduced its stake by 3.59 million shares, with the position weight dropping sharply from 15.87% last quarter to 6.42%.

Bloom Energy specializes in solid oxide fuel cell technology and is a core target for data center "on-site power generation," bypassing the traditional grid. Given that the remaining position is still substantial, this reduction likely represents routine profit-taking rather than a lack of confidence in the company.

CoreWeave call options (CRWV CALL) were the second largest reduction for Situational Awareness LP (position weight plummeted from 14.04% to 1.03%). As mentioned earlier, the fund shifted to holding CRWV in common stock, so this move is more about deleveraging.

Situational Awareness LP also cut its stake in Core Scientific (CORZ) by 2.74 million shares, reducing the position from 7.59% to 2.84%. CORZ is a leading player in the transition of Bitcoin miners to AI computing hosting. However, given that Situational Awareness LP added positions this quarter to other mining companies still in transition with more attractive valuations, reducing CORZ seems like partial profit-taking.

What is the "AI Stock Guru" Really Thinking?

Looking only at the surface data of this 13F, many might draw a simple, crude conclusion: Leopold Aschenbrenner, who once loudly proclaimed "AGI by 2027," has turned completely bearish on AI.

But the reality is clearly not that simple. Within Situational Awareness LP's position structure, there exist two seemingly contradictory but highly unified main themes.

• On one hand, extreme vigilance regarding short-term valuation bubbles in the "chip sector." Situational Awareness LP used a staggering nominal amount of put option positions, essentially buying "crash insurance" for the entire AI semiconductor supply chain, including Nvidia and Broadcom.
• On the other hand, an almost obsessive optimism about long-term AI infrastructure demand. Whether it's CoreWeave, Bloom Energy, or a series of power, transformer, and data center-related companies, they all point to one deterministic logic: the AI computing war has entered the deep end.

This may well be Situational Awareness LP's core thesis currently. What will truly be scarce in the future might not be the GPU chips themselves, but the energy, power systems, and data center infrastructure needed to keep those GPUs running continuously. GPU production can be expanded continuously, and advanced manufacturing processes will eventually ramp up. However, megawatt-scale power supply capabilities, transformers, transmission systems, and large-scale data center construction cycles are difficult to replicate quickly. Compared to the "selling shovels" logic that is already fully priced into the market, Leopold Aschenbrenner seems more focused on where the true bottlenecks in the next phase of the AI industry might appear.

This also explains why Situational Awareness LP would simultaneously buy large-scale semiconductor put options to hedge against sharp volatility in the AI hardware sector while continuing to heavily invest in GPU cloud services, power, and computing infrastructure assets.

In a sense, this 13F filing reads less like a simple disclosure of holdings and more like Leopold Aschenbrenner’s directional judgment on the evolutionary path of the AI industry in its next phase.

When a genius investor, who rose to fame quickly by going all-in on AI, begins deploying tens of billions in notional positions to buy insurance for the AI sector, it at least indicates one thing: even the most steadfast AI bull of this era has started to seriously reckon with volatility itself.