BIT 투자 리서치: 나스닥을 따라잡았다면, 비트코인은 14만 달러에 가까웠을 것이다
- 핵심 견해: 시장은 인플레이션 재평가에 의해 주도되는 거시적 조정을 겪고 있으며, 비트코인은 금리 경로에 대한 높은 민감도와 구조적인 인플레이션 수혜 메커니즘 부재로 인해 나스닥보다 저조한 성과를 보이고 있으며, 그 핵심 지지 기반인 유동성 완화 기대가 약화되고 있다.
- 핵심 요소:
- 인플레이션 데이터 반등: 미국 CPI가 2.4%에서 3.8%로, PPI가 2.9%에서 6.0%로 상승하면서 시장의 2026년 금리 인하 경로에 대한 기대가 반전되기 시작했다.
- 에너지 쇼크 심화: 이란 정세로 인해 2026년 2월 하순 이후 원유 가격이 약 40% 상승하며 인플레이션 우려를 강화했다.
- 비트코인과 기술주 간 분화: 2025년 10월 이후 분화가 확대되었으며, 이론적 가격(나스닥 흐름 기반)과 현재 가격 간의 격차는 약 14만 달러에 달한다.
- 자산 특성 차이: 비트코인은 장기 자산으로 금리에 민감하지만, 주식처럼 명목 소득이나 부채 희석을 통해 인플레이션으로부터 직접적인 혜택을 받지는 않는다.
- 미래 인플레이션 경로: BIT 모델은 CPI가 6.0%까지 상승할 수 있으며, AI 인프라 확장에 따른 에너지 수요 증가가 높은 인플레이션 지속 기간을 연장할 수 있다고 예측한다.
- 유가 하락 기대: 시장은 유가가 101달러에서 2026년 9월 89달러, 2028년 1월 73달러로 점진적으로 하락할 것으로 예상하지만, 단기적인 공급 병목 현상은 여전히 존재한다.
The current market is in a phase of macro-adjustment dominated by inflation repricing. If Bitcoin were to consistently track the Nasdaq, its current price would theoretically be close to $140,000. However, since October 2025, the divergence between the two has widened significantly. The core reason behind this is the resurgence of inflation in the United States, which has begun to reverse market expectations for the path of interest rate cuts.
The latest data shows that the US CPI has rebounded from 2.4% to 3.8%, while the PPI has risen from 2.9% to 6.0%. At the same time, the interest rate market is gradually unwinding some of the pricing for rate cuts in 2026. For Bitcoin, the loose liquidity expectations that supported the previous rally are beginning to wane. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in Iran have pushed oil prices up by approximately 40% since late February 2026, and rising energy costs have further intensified market concerns about inflation.
Based on current pricing, the market still tends to view this round of inflation as a temporary pressure disturbance. However, as the linkage between energy, interest rates, and risk appetite strengthens, the market is also beginning to reassess the risk that the high-interest-rate environment might persist for longer. In this process, Bitcoin's performance has started to lag notably behind tech stocks, which can benefit from nominal inflation.
Inflation Repricing: Why Bitcoin Struggles to Benefit from a High-Inflation Environment
Most investors often equate "monetary expansion" with "inflation," but the two actually correspond to completely different market phases. The primary driver of Bitcoin's rise in recent years has essentially been loose liquidity and expectations of rate cuts, not inflation itself. In December 2022, the BIT model had already indicated that price pressures would significantly ease, foreshadowing a potential shift in central bank policy toward signaling rate cuts. This also became a key starting point for the rally in tech stocks and Bitcoin from 2023 to 2025.
The problem, however, is that when inflation truly begins to re-emerge, market logic changes. Even without actual rate hikes, the mere expectation that "rates will stay higher for longer" is sufficient to trigger a repricing of Bitcoin. As a typical long-duration asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to the interest rate path. Once expectations for rate cuts are withdrawn, its valuation tends to come under pressure.
At the same time, Bitcoin, unlike stocks, does not derive structural benefits from a certain level of inflation. Stocks can potentially benefit from rising nominal corporate revenues and may also reduce their real debt burden to some extent. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no debt to be diluted by inflation nor cash flows that can expand with it, making it difficult to directly benefit from this inflationary rebound. This explains the recent pronounced divergence between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.
From Energy Shocks to Interest Rate Constraints: The Market Re-evaluates the Liquidity Path
The real concern for the current market is no longer just "whether inflation is rising," but whether high inflation will force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period. The BIT model predicts that the US CPI could even rise further to 6.0% in the future. If this scenario materializes, Bitcoin could face periodic pullbacks around each release of CPI and PPI data.
Meanwhile, although the crude oil futures curve suggests that oil prices will gradually decline in the future, it will be difficult to return to the pre-war level of around $63 in the short term. The market has already priced in a long-term premium of about 15% for oil prices, reflecting real supply bottlenecks. Starting from the current oil price of around $101, the market expects crude oil prices to fall to $89 by September 2026, $80 by January 2027, and further to $73 by January 2028.
Beyond geopolitical and energy factors, the expansion of AI infrastructure may also be altering the inflation path the market has been accustomed to. Data center construction, electricity demand, and infrastructure capital expenditure are continuously adding to energy pressures. This implies that inflation could remain above target levels for longer than the market previously anticipated. In such an environment, tech stocks can benefit from order growth and improved earnings expectations, while Bitcoin is more susceptible to the headwinds of a high-interest-rate environment.
Overall, the core of this round of market change is not that Bitcoin's long-term thesis has been broken, but that the market is reassessing the interest rate and liquidity paths in the wake of resurgent inflation. In the short term, a high-inflation environment may continue to weigh on Bitcoin's performance, causing it to lag the Nasdaq periodically. However, this does not signal a bearish shift in the market. More accurately, it merely slows down Bitcoin's upward momentum. As the market begins to price in expectations of looser liquidity in the future, Bitcoin could regain support.
Parts of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to receive the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
