UFO 파일 공개 후, 예측 시장은 외계인 존재 확률을 20%로만 평가했다?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)

Last night, the U.S. Department of Defense officially launched a UFO archive website and released the first batch of government documents related to UAPs, unidentified flying objects, and potential extraterrestrial life. According to public reports, the initial release contains over 160 documents, including videos, photos, mission logs, eyewitness reports, communication records, and historical archives, involving multiple U.S. federal agencies such as NASA, the FBI, and the Department of Defense.

This batch of documents is not merely abstract government reports but includes a large amount of specific imagery and historical records. Among them, Apollo mission spacecraft captured three anomalous points of light hovering above the lunar surface. Communication logs from Apollo 17 also contain discussions among astronauts about mysterious objects approaching the spacecraft. Other materials show unexplained objects appearing in locations like the UAE, Greece, and Iraq.

What is more viral are the unresolved cases detailed with specific visuals in the documents. A jellyfish-shaped object was spotted over the UAE. Some records document suspected glowing orbs and an unidentified flying object shaped like an eight-pointed star. The FBI also captured anomalous targets near U.S. military aircraft. One image released by the Pentagon shows an unidentified object appearing over the western United States in September 2025.

An image released by the U.S. Department of Defense allegedly shows an unidentified object over the western United States in September 2025 (Source: U.S. Department of Defense)

Compared to text-only reports, these images and eyewitness accounts are more likely to rapidly spread the UFO discussion, making this release appear as a concentrated showcase of "declassified archives."

However, the prediction market offered a much calmer verdict than social media. After the initial UFO文件的公开, the probability on the prediction market predict.fun for the event "The US will confirm the existence of aliens before December 31, 2026" did not surge significantly due to this explosive news. The market did not interpret this disclosure as an imminent "US confirmation of alien existence"; the probability remains at only 20%.

Source: https://predict.fun/market/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027

So, why didn't this UFO file release significantly change the prediction market's assessment?

Prediction Markets Bet on Whether the U.S. Government Will Acknowledge, Not Whether Aliens Exist

Many people see the 20% probability and might immediately think the prediction market believes there's only a 20% chance that aliens exist. However, this misunderstands the market itself.

What markets like predict.fun truly trade is not whether extraterrestrial life exists in the universe, but whether the U.S. government will explicitly confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or extraterrestrial technology before 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2026. According to the market's settlement rules, the market will only settle as 'Yes' if the U.S. President, a U.S. Cabinet member, a Joint Chiefs of Staff member, or a U.S. federal agency makes such a definitive statement. Otherwise, the market will settle as 'No'. The primary source for settlement is official U.S. government information, and consensus from credible media reports will also be considered.

This rule is crucial. It means a UFO video is not enough, a blurry photo is not enough, an astronaut communication log is not enough, and the military acknowledging that some phenomena are currently unexplainable is also not enough. What can truly trigger a 'Yes' is an official statement from the U.S. government that is sufficiently clear and definitive, acknowledging that extraterrestrial life or technology indeed exists.

The release of files merely puts more materials before the public. Official confirmation implies the government is endorsing the conclusion. The former generates discussion, the latter triggers settlement. Between them lies a line that is very difficult to cross.

Archive Release is Not an Answer Publication

This UFO file release is indeed not an ordinary information update. The Pentagon is concentrating relevant materials through a dedicated website and has stated it will continue to release more documents in batches. For the public, this means that UFO and UAP data, previously scattered across different agencies, eras, and filing systems, is being reorganized into a single official portal. It centralizes the discussion and makes it easier for outsiders to track what materials the U.S. government possesses.

However, based on the current disclosures, this batch of files seems more like placing historical sightings, anomalous images, mission logs, and old archives before the public, rather than providing a unified explanation for these materials. The Pentagon hasn't directly told the public "what this is," but instead releases more unresolved cases, leaving the judgment to the public.

This places the release in a nuanced position. It increases transparency without changing the nature of the events. The UFO debate gains more material, but these materials expand the scope of the question rather than pushing unidentified phenomena towards an extraterrestrial confirmation.

For the prediction market, this file release is more like a new starting point for observation, rather than evidence strong enough to rewrite the odds. It brings the UFO topic back to center stage and gives subsequent file updates tradable value; but the initial batch is still dominated by historical records, eyewitness reports, and unexplained imagery. The market is truly waiting for a higher-level, harder-to-avoid key signal that is closer to an official characterization.

Is 20% an Underestimation or an Overestimation?

From an emotional perspective, 20% might be low. After all, the release of UFO files is now in an official rhythm, and more materials will continue to be released. If clearer military videos, higher-level internal records, or more direct assessments from a federal agency appear in the future, the 'Yes' price could still be quickly re-evaluated.

But from a market pricing perspective, 20% is not insignificant. This market trades on a question with a clear deadline, not an open-ended one. The market must judge not just whether the U.S. will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology, but also whether this confirmation will happen before the end of 2026.

Time itself is a hurdle. Even if subsequent files are released, and more unresolved cases enter the public domain, it doesn't mean the U.S. government will complete evidence review, internal coordination, and political assessment within a few months to reach a sufficiently definitive conclusion. For the official system, continuing to disclose materials is one thing; reaching a characterization within a short timeframe is another.

Therefore, the current 20% probability looks more like a tail-end pricing with a time discount. It doesn't deny that subsequent files might create volatility, but it also indicates the market doesn't believe the initial release has changed the fundamental assessment of the event. For traders, the release of files itself isn't scarce. What is truly scarce is the key signal capable of pushing for an official characterization before the year's end. Until such a signal appears, it's difficult for the 'Yes' price to be re-elevated solely on archive updates.

When UFOs Enter Prediction Markets, Truth Starts to Have a Price

The most noteworthy aspect of this event is no longer just a specific photo, video, or jellyfish-shaped object. In the past, UFOs have long lingered between emotions, beliefs, and conspiracy narratives. Believers see more clues in every file release, while skeptics continue to emphasize lack of evidence, misidentification, and technical noise. The two sides have debated for years, yet struggle to truly convince each other, often because they are not discussing the same question.

Prediction markets pull this question closer to reality. They don't attempt to answer whether there is other life in the universe. Instead, they narrow the question to a more concrete level: whether the U.S. government will explicitly acknowledge the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology before the end of this year. It transforms a previously ungrounded imagination into an event that can be traded, settled, and adjusted as information changes.

So, this ~20% probability is not a final judgment on the existence of extraterrestrial life, but rather the market's assessment of whether the U.S. official position will shift by the end of this year. What it truly reflects is traders' composite judgment on the chain of evidence, official statements, and the time window.

When the oldest human mystery enters the prediction market, the truth is no longer just awaited and discussed, but also priced. UFOs may still remain suspended in the sky, but the question of when they will be officially confirmed, and when they will transition from an unknown phenomenon to a factual conclusion, has now landed on the trading board.