As the World Cup approaches, sports are entering an era of "fractional finance."

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Planet Xiaohua

The World Cup is about to kick off, and beyond the prediction markets gearing up, another industry is quietly heating up.

Recently, FIFA announced a new rule: all players participating in the World Cup for the first time must wear a "debut patch" on their jerseys. This means that even globally renowned superstar players who have never set foot on a World Cup pitch before, such as Erling Haaland and Lamine Yamal, will need to wear this special insignia. Some national teams returning to the World Cup after many years may even need the entire squad to wear it.

This isn't just about adding a sense of ceremony for World Cup rookies. Those familiar with the sports card industry know that this patch will be removed, authenticated, cut, and then embedded into trading cards after the match. Ultimately, it could become a 1/1 rookie autograph card, which gets graded, auctioned, and traded, potentially fetching a price in the future that exceeds a supercar.

Just this May, FIFA announced a long-term exclusive licensing partnership for collectibles with Fanatics. Future World Cup-related trading cards, stickers, and collectibles systems will officially enter the Fanatics/Topps era.

You might not be into sports cards, but it's worth noting that behind these small pieces of cardboard lies an alternative asset world worth over tens of billions of dollars, boasting a massive secondary market and long-term bull and bear cycles.

At the same time, the entire sports world is entering a new era of "fractionalized finance."

Sports Leagues "Selling History by the Piece"

In the past, fans cared about "a historic moment witnessed by a jersey." Now, people might care about "how many pieces of history this jersey can be broken into."

After all, one jersey can belong to dozens of cards, hundreds of buyers, be resold countless times in the future, and even form a price curve that continuously rises or fluctuates wildly.

A piece of fabric might go from a player's chest to the card factory, into a blind box, then to a grading company, into an auction house, and finally become an alternative asset in some investment portfolio.

Soccer trading cards are nothing new either. Since the 1970 World Cup, Panini has established a system for World Cup stickers and trading cards. Many fans' childhoods began with a World Cup sticker album.

However, it has never managed to build a mature, highly liquid "sports financial asset system" like the NBA.

Those unfamiliar with this might find it strange. Soccer has the largest global fan base, and its superstars hold immense commercial value, yet the prices, liquidity, and secondary market depth of soccer cards have long failed to compare with the NBA.

The reason behind this is that the NBA is inherently more suited for "assetization," while soccer lacks a highly unified commercial operation system like the NBA that continuously generates excitement and scarcity.

Basketball is a sport of extreme individual heroism. Superstars make game-winning shots, data systems are standardized, the league narrative is unified, and the American industry is exceptionally skilled at creating stars. From draft night, debut, All-Star, MVP, playoffs to the championship, every milestone can be packaged into an asset.

The soccer world, on the other hand, is too fragmented. National teams, leagues, clubs, the Champions League, sponsors, and broadcasting rights systems are isolated from each other, making it difficult to form a unified and sustained financial narrative like the NBA.

It's easy to understand then, that the World Cup patch mentioned at the beginning is FIFA actively trying to create "financial raw materials" for high-value trading cards in the future.

The NBA Turned Cardboard into a Financial Asset Over 70 Years

Many in the crypto space might have learned about trading cards during the NFT boom, but the NBA trading card market has been trading for over 70 years.

In 1948, Bowman released the first batch of NBA player cards; in 1986, Fleer released the Michael Jordan rookie card that would later change the entire industry; in the 1990s, with the Jordan era and the globalization of the NBA, the trading card market experienced its first wave of mass frenzy. At that time, almost every mall, convenience store, and toy store in America was selling cards.

But soon, the industry entered its first major crash.

In the late 1990s, a large number of publishers wildly overproduced cards, losing control of print runs, and the market entered a major bear market. This period was later dubbed the "Junk Wax Era" by the collecting community.

What changed the industry was the "scarcity revolution" after 2000.

In 2003, LeBron James entered the NBA. That same year, Upper Deck launched the Exquisite series, firmly introducing concepts like autographs, jersey patches, serial numbering, and 1/1s into the high-end card market.

From then on, trading cards began to transform into an alternative financial asset.

They started having clear serial numbers, scarcity tiers, long-term price trajectories, grading systems, auction platforms, professional market makers, and a vast secondary market.

During the pandemic, grading companies like PSA and BGS rose to prominence, auction platforms like eBay, Goldin, and PWCC matured, breakers started live-streaming card breaks, and the entire industry gradually formed a complete ecosystem.

The scale of this market is far beyond imagination. According to 2025 data, the global sports trading card market has reached approximately $11.5 billion. Basketball cards remain the core, most profitable category, while autograph and patch cards are the fastest-growing high-end assets.

At the same time, grading companies have even become true "platform businesses."

In 2025, PSA's parent company, Collectors, completed its acquisition of Beckett (BGS's parent company), pushing the entire industry towards greater financialization and centralization.

In recent years, grading companies have essentially become very close to the "asset issuance layer" in Crypto. PSA's annual revenue in 2024 already exceeded $300 million. In today's trading card world, whether a piece of cardboard goes from $500 to $5000 often depends solely on whether it ends up encased in a PSA plastic slab.

Furthermore, numerous physical "exchanges" specializing in trading cards have emerged globally. CardsHQ in Atlanta, USA, is called "the world's largest trading card store" by many media outlets. It's not just a store; it's a large financial entertainment hub integrating live card breaks, auctions, KOLs, communities, and trading.

Today's NBA trading card market is actually very close to the Crypto world.

It has weathered time, experienced long-term bull and bear cycles, possesses massive secondary liquidity, has "diamond hands" holding for the long term, KOLs pumping cards, and emotional trading betting on the next GOAT.

Many trading card break communities are like meme communities, with hosts setting the tone, communities hyping, betting on rookies, trading on scarcity narratives, and FOMO opening boxes...

Collective Emotion Can Become an Asset

What provides this market with sustained liquidity and allows it to be financialized relies, like other assets, on "narrative."

Last June, a 2024 Topps Now Paris Olympics 1/1 autograph card of Stephen Curry sold for $518,500 at Goldin Auctions.

This card was valuable because it was tied to a moment. In the men's basketball final of the 2024 Paris Olympics, Curry hit crucial three-pointers consecutively and made that iconic "night-night" gesture towards France.

Therefore, the price of a card is deeply tied to the "narrative moment" hyped behind it. That shot, that game, that cheer, that feeling of "I witnessed history."

However, this price isn't exaggerated in the top-tier trading card market. In 2021, Curry's Rookie Logoman Autograph 1/1 sold for $5.9 million.

This is the most profound change in the sports collectibles market in recent years: price is no longer absolutely bound by time or scarcity, but defined by different "storytelling campaigns."

This is essentially the same logic as the hype around prediction markets. On Polymarket, we trade on whether Trump will be elected, if Bitcoin can hit new highs, or if a certain movie will win the Oscars.

In the trading card market, they trade on whether Yamal will become the next king of soccer, if Haaland can win the World Cup, or if a certain rookie will become the future GOAT.

Prediction markets sell "outcome probabilities," trading cards sell "historical ownership," – both are essentially pricing collective emotion in advance.

What NFTs Couldn't Do

Crypto players burned by NFTs might find this "emotion into asset" chain familiar.

But NFT projects all face the same unsolvable problem: a lack of ability to continuously produce "new stories."

A profile picture can be very popular for a while after minting, but once the hype fades, the project team can only struggle to maintain market consensus by constantly creating: new roadmaps, new airdrops, new collaborations, and new utilities.

After an infinite loop, they eventually have to launch a new project until no one is left to buy in.

But sports are different. Sports are the world's perpetual "emotion production machine."

It automatically updates its storyline every day, never ending. Someone hits a game-winner, someone gets injured, someone seeks revenge, someone retires, someone becomes a legend overnight, someone rises from benchwarmer to star.

Its narratives aren't fabricated by project teams; they happen continuously in the real world.

I've always enjoyed watching UFC. Dana White is one of the best sports promoters over the past decade when it comes to understanding "attention finance."

UFC doesn't just sell tickets to fights; it sells rivalries, trash talk, revenge storylines, underdog triumphs, dynasty downfalls – it's constantly fermenting emotions and dramatic narratives.

People don't pay for "statistics," but they will always pay for "narratives."

In fact, the NBA has been doing this for years too.

On one hand, older fans constantly complain about the league's "entertainmentization," biased refereeing, player superteams, drama, league marketing, and increasing scripted feel. On the other hand, it's undeniable that the NBA's reach and commercial value among young people are growing stronger.

The Financialization of Sports Leagues

The logic of sports consumption today, and even the entire entertainment industry's consumption, has changed.

Many young people may not watch full games, but they will watch trash talk, memes, short video clips, player personas, social media drama, and post-game interviews.

Sports are increasingly becoming a large-scale, never-ending reality show IP. Trading cards serve as the most direct financialized outlet for these emotions.

During the NFT bull market, project teams also loudly proclaimed that Web3 would redefine sports collecting. But looking back, it is the traditional sports leagues that have truly completed the "assetization" first. Because they possess what Web3 lacks: real people, real games, and real collective emotional consensus.

In today's world of universal financialization, sports are not only a perpetual motion machine creating "future history," but are also becoming a platform for issuing financial assets.