数据破译BTC周期：三大见底信号齐亮，Q4或成关键转折窗口？
Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: jk
Last October, the night BTC broke through $120,000, countless people screenshot the chart and posted it on their social media with the caption "Witnessing history." Just eight months later, the same people were staring at a price of $59,100, and their captions had changed to "Will it drop further?"
From the peak of $126,198 to the low of $59,100, BTC has retraced over 52%. In early June, the crypto market Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 8, its lowest level since 2022.
Is entering the market now a brave bottom-fishing move, or just catching a falling knife?
In 2018, people said BTC would eventually go to zero. In 2022, they said the crypto industry was finished after FTX collapsed. By 2026, the narrative had shifted to "the four-year cycle is broken," "institutional entry only leads to selling pressure," and "risk assets have no future in a high-interest-rate era." Every time, these narratives sound most indisputable when prices are at their lowest.
However, narratives are emotional; data is neutral. Only by separating the two can the market's current position become clear. Let's take a look together: where exactly are we standing in the BTC cycle right now?
Where Does a 52% Drop Stand in Historical Cycles?
On October 6, 2025, BTC hit its all-time high of $126,198. From that day to the intraday low of approximately $59,100 on June 5, 2026, this correction's peak-to-trough decline exceeded 52%.
A 52% drop sounds alarming, but compared to the three previous complete bear markets in BTC's history, this figure is actually below the historical median. The 2014 bear market saw an 86% drop from top to bottom, 2018 saw 84%, and 2022, falling from $69,000 to $15,479, was about 77%. The current cycle's maximum drawdown so far is around 52%, significantly milder than the previous three.
In other words, historically, prices have recovered even after deeper falls. While this statement might sound somewhat arbitrary, from a market confidence perspective, the fear surrounding the current price likely exceeds the actual risk reflected by fundamentals.
This is precisely why it's often said that market confidence is more precious than gold.
Four Halvings, Three Almost Identical Curves
Understanding our current position is inseparable from the halving cycle framework.
BTC's block reward halves approximately every four years, contracting the new supply. Around these halvings, the past three cycles have followed remarkably similar bull-bear rhythms: peaking 12 to 18 months after the halving, bottoming 12 to 14 months after the peak, with the bottom usually occurring about 17 months before the next halving.
- Cycle 1: Halving in November 2012 when BTC was only $12. About 12 months later, in November 2013, the price peaked at $1,150. The subsequent bear market lasted about 13 months, bottoming around $160 in January 2015, approximately 18 months before the next halving (July 2016).
- Cycle 2: Halving in July 2016 at around $650. About 17 months later, in December 2017, the price peaked at $19,800. The subsequent bear market lasted about 12 months, bottoming around $3,200 in December 2018, approximately 17 months before the next halving (May 2020).
- Cycle 3: Halving in May 2020 at around $8,600. About 18 months later, in November 2021, the price peaked at $69,000. The subsequent bear market lasted about 13 months, bottoming around $15,500 during the FTX collapse in November 2022, approximately 17 months before the next halving (April 2024).
- Now, Cycle 4. The halving occurred on April 19, 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, with the price around $63,000. About 18 months later, BTC peaked at $126,198 on October 6, 2025, perfectly falling within the historical "12 to 18 months post-halving peak" window.
As of June 2026, it's about 26 months since the 2024 halving and about 8 months since the October 2025 peak. According to historical patterns, bottoms occur 12 to 14 months after the peak, suggesting a potential bottom window around October 2026. This would be approximately 17 months before the next halving (April 2028), closely mirroring the timing of the previous three cycles.
BTC Halving Timeline
From our current standpoint, the second half of 2026 looks more like a phase in this cycle worth reassessing risk-reward ratios, rather than a period for panic exits.
Supply contraction post-halving is ongoing, and long-term buying pressure from spot ETFs and institutional funds has changed BTC's market structure, which previously relied solely on retail sentiment. If historical cycles continue to function, Q4 2026 could be the critical window where the market transitions from pessimism to recovery, from deleveraging to re-accumulation. For investors bullish on BTC's long-term value, the current pullback might offer more attractive phased entry points. As the bottom zone gradually approaches, market confidence has the potential to rebuild, and the foundation for the next up-cycle may be quietly forming in this very phase.
On-Chain Data: Three Simultaneous Bottom Signals
Beyond price charts, on-chain data provides a more fundamental valuation reference.
- Indicator 1: MVRV Z-Score. This measures the deviation between the current market cap and the average cost basis of all coin holders. Historically, a Z-Score above 7 indicates significant overvaluation, near a peak. A drop to near zero or negative corresponds to deep undervaluation zones. When BTC peaked in October 2025, the Z-Score was around 5 to 6. According to MacroMicro data from June 9, the current Z-Score is approximately 0.27, nearing the boundary of historical bottom zones.
- Indicator 2: Network Realized Price. This is the aggregate cost basis of all circulating BTC, weighted by the price at their last on-chain move. CryptoQuant Research Head Julio Moreno noted on June 10 that this value is currently around $53,600. With the current spot price around $62,000, the market price is only about 9% above the network's aggregate cost basis – a historically rare low premium. In the past three cycles, major bottoms formed at or slightly below the realized price, briefly dipping below it in November 2022.
- Indicator 3: 200-week Moving Average (200 WMA). This represents the average price over the past four years, currently around $62,200. On June 4, 2026, BTC touched this line for the first time in this cycle. The bear market bottoms of 2015, 2018, and 2020 all occurred precisely near this line. 2022 was the only exception, where the price pierced and stayed below the line for about 16 months, culminating in the FTX collapse.
200-week Moving Average Price. Source: TradingView
Capital Flows: Retail Exits, Whales Enter
Beyond valuation-level bottom signals, the structure of capital flows also shows some bottom characteristics.
Regarding ETFs, from mid-May to early June, US spot BTC ETFs experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion (around 59,400 BTC). This was the longest single outflow streak since the ETFs launched. BlackRock's IBIT saw weekly outflows of about $980 million, a record low. This reflects panic redemptions from short-term capital and retail investors.
Simultaneously, opposite action occurred on-chain. The number of whale addresses holding 100+ BTC hit a new 2026 high of approximately 20,229. In the first five months of 2026, net whale purchases already matched the total for all of 2025. Strategy sold 32 BTC in late May to pay preferred stock dividends – its first sale in four years – sparking concerns about a strategic shift. However, two weeks later, on June 8, the company bought 1,550 BTC at an average price of $65,332, bringing its total holdings to 845,256 BTC. Michael Saylor described this as "a good time to add."
At the exchange level, BTC balances on major exchanges have been declining for months, with coins flowing from trading platforms to long-term holders and institutional cold wallets. Currently, long-term holders (those holding for over 155 days) control approximately 78% of the circulating supply, one of the highest proportions in history.
Macro: The Biggest Uncertainty Just Got Halved
The core macro logic suppressing BTC over the past few months primarily stemmed from two factors: high interest rates and the Iran conflict.
In early 2026, the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, leading to a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA characterized this as the largest supply disruption in global oil market history. International oil prices spiked temporarily to between $105 and $120 per barrel. Inflation rebounded, with the US May CPI rising to 4.2%, far exceeding the 2% policy target. The federal funds rate was forced to remain on hold in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The market briefly priced in a ~79% probability of "zero rate cuts" for 2026, and the US Dollar Index strengthened to around 99-100. The dual pressure of high interest rates and risk aversion meant that, despite continuous global liquidity expansion, capital was slow to flow into the crypto market.
However, on the night of June 14, US President Trump announced the completion of the US-Iran agreement. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council then issued a statement in the early hours of June 15, formally confirming the memorandum of understanding for a ceasefire. The official signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, and the Strait of Hormuz will consequently reopen.
The market reaction was immediate and sharp. WTI crude oil fell over 4% that day to around $80.25/barrel, and Brent crude dropped to around $83.51. BTC jumped from around $61,500 before the announcement to above $65,000, a single-day gain of over 5% – the largest daily rebound in three months – accompanied by a surge in trading volume. Futures for the three major US stock indices all rose over 300 points, and Asian stock markets rallied in tandem.
Following the agreement, Deutsche Bank stated that near-term risks of a Fed rate hike are expected to fade. However, due to sticky inflation, labor market resilience, and the possibility that the neutral interest rate is higher than expected, the risk of a rate hike in 2027 still exists. The Fed's future path will depend particularly on the debut of its new chair, Kevin Warsh.
Conclusion: It's a Bottom, But Also When Confidence is Lowest
When BTC was above $120,000, everyone was willing to believe it would go higher. But now that it's back around $60,000, with on-chain valuations, cycle positioning, long-term holder ratios, and macro variables all pointing towards a bottom zone, market confidence is at its lowest.
Yet investing is never completed when emotions are most comfortable. Historically, every major BTC bottom has been accompanied by the doubt of "this time is different," along with total skepticism towards the industry, the cycle, and the asset itself. The difference lies only in whether one treats this doubt as a reason to exit or as an opportunity to re-price risk-reward ratios.
Where BTC is now, of course, doesn't mean it can't fall further, nor does it guarantee this is *the* absolute bottom. But if we zoom out, separating short-term panic from long-term structure, the current zone is no longer appropriately defined as "chasing highs." It's closer to a phased entry window requiring patience, discipline, and faith.
Market confidence is more precious than gold. Because gold can only hedge against inflation, while confidence can transcend cycles. For those who still believe in BTC's long-term value, in scarcity, and in global liquidity eventually returning to risk assets, the most important question for the second half of 2026 might not be "Will it fall further?" but rather, "When the market believes in it again, will you already be in?"
What choice will you make?
