如果CLARITY法案最終未能通過，會發生什麼？

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: jk

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), passed in the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, by a vote of 294 to 134, has been stalled in the Senate for over a year. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill to the legislative calendar on May 14, 2026, by a vote of 15 to 9, but as of now, it has not received a full Senate vote nor has it been signed by the President.

So, what's the holdup? Odaily Planet Daily has conducted a specific analysis on this matter; interested readers can check "Almost There, What Exactly is Holding Up the CLARITY Act?"

The core of this act is to classify and define crypto assets: clearly determining whether tokens are securities or commodities, and accordingly delineating the regulatory authority of the SEC and CFTC, while also covering provisions for user self-custody of private keys, stablecoin yield mechanisms, and registration of overseas exchanges. The main controversy currently hindering the Senate vote is the ethics review clause regarding conflicts of interest in crypto assets for senior government officials.

On July 27, Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that the Senate will prioritize sanctions legislation against Russia and personnel appointments in the near term, potentially delaying the voting window for the CLARITY Act until September. Industry and congressional negotiators had generally viewed August 7 as the last realistic window for the bill to pass in 2026. If missed, most analysts believe the prospects for the bill's enactment this year will significantly diminish.

Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law within the year is only 35%. In February, this number was 82%.

The probability of Clarity passing within the year continues to decline. Source: Polymarket

So, if the Clarity Act ultimately fails to pass, how will the crypto market react? How will Bitcoin move? How will related US stock targets be impacted? What changes will occur in Washington's political landscape? Odaily Planet Daily will explore from these three perspectives the potential situation the industry may face if the CLARITY Act ultimately fails to pass the Senate.

1. Crypto Market: Analysts Generally Believe the Impact is Limited and the Market Has Already Priced It In

From current price action, the market's pessimism regarding the CLARITY Act is gradually being reflected. The most obvious is Polymarket's probability drop from 82% to the current 35%. Looking at the trend, this probability rose above 70% multiple times between February and May but has consistently declined since June, indicating a clear weakening of confidence. Currently, cumulative trading volume has reached $2.845 million.

Bitcoin's price itself has been under pressure recently, fluctuating in the $65,000 to $66,000 range in late July, with market interpretations generally linking this to macro liquidity factors rather than the bill itself.

Institutional analysts generally have reservations about the view that "failure of the bill equals an industry crisis." Ed Engel, an analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading, maintains a sell rating on Coinbase but also points out that even if the CLARITY Act fails, there are enough industry events in the second half of the year to maintain market attention, and the blockchain industry still has opportunities to prove its practical application value in the next two to three years.

It should be noted that the specific provisions of the bill themselves contain significant points of contention, and their impact varies greatly across different sub-sectors. For example, regarding the stablecoin yield clause, a draft of the CLARITY Act in March proposed prohibiting any stablecoin holding yield arrangements "substantially equivalent to interest." This news caused Circle's stock price to plummet 20% in a single day, and Coinbase's stock price fell nearly 10% on the same day. In other words, the market impact of the bill's failure largely depends on the final details of the clauses, rather than the passage of the bill itself.

2. US Stock Market: Will Coinbase and Circle Plummet?

Coinbase

Coinbase's performance over the past week. Source: Google

Coinbase's stock price has recently been pressured as the probability of the bill passing has decreased. On July 28, COIN closed at $165, down 3.8% over the past five days, with the decline attributed to selling pressure from the weakening prospects of the bill. In the week leading up to July 24, COIN fell from the $169 level, with Raymond James setting a target price of $158, about 6.5% lower than the then-current price; Oppenheimer had previously lowered its target price to $209. Baird lowered its target price from $160 to $142, maintaining a neutral rating.

That is, institutions believe that if CLARITY does not pass, we will likely see Coinbase trading in the $140 - $160 range.

However, most analysts do not directly link Coinbase's long-term investment thesis to the success or failure of the CLARITY Act. Analysis cited by TipRanks suggests that even if the bill fails to pass before August, Wall Street's trend towards institutional allocation of crypto assets will still support Coinbase's long-term growth. Coinbase is set to release its Q2 earnings on July 30, with market expectations of EPS at $0.19, a significant improvement from the Q1 loss per share of $1.49. In the long run, even if CLARITY fails, long-term growth could offset this setback.

Circle

Circle's performance over the past week. Source: Google

Circle's situation is relatively more complex, with some analysts believing that the failure of the bill might not necessarily be bad for Circle. Analysts at Mizuho Securities point out that if the CLARITY Act passes smoothly, bringing a clearer regulatory framework, it might instead attract more competitors into the stablecoin space, accelerating homogenized competition in the stablecoin business, and reducing Circle's revenue in the long run. This year, the stablecoin sector has seen the emergence of the Open USD project, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and BlackRock, posing direct competition to Circle's USDC. Mizuho had previously downgraded Circle's rating due to this project.

On the other hand, if the clause in the CLARITY Act regarding restrictions on stablecoin yields is ultimately enacted, it would weaken Coinbase's high-margin revenue from the USDC distribution agreement. This could tilt negotiating power toward Circle during their commercial agreement renegotiation scheduled for August 2026. Morgan Stanley analyst Thielen believes that a stricter federal regulatory framework generally benefits licensed issuers with compliance capabilities, asset scale, and credit backing, with Circle being relatively advantaged in this landscape. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes that the earlier sell-off in Circle's stock triggered by the draft bill was "over-interpreted," and the bill itself does not change Circle's long-term investment thesis.

In other words, if CLARITY genuinely fails to pass, it might be a positive for Circle's long-term price. In the short term, if sentiment continues to weaken, several repeatedly mentioned support levels are around $61.70, and in more extreme cases, the market has mentioned a potential decline to this year's February low of $49.

Crypto Treasury Companies

The stock prices of crypto treasury companies, represented by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker MSTR), have a much higher correlation with Bitcoin's price than a direct link to the CLARITY Act itself, and can be viewed as leveraged plays on Bitcoin.

As of July 1, impacted by Bitcoin's price falling below $59,000, MSTR's stock price slid to the $85-$86 range, marking its eleventh consecutive monthly decline, down approximately 84% from its all-time high of around $540 in November 2024. Citigroup analysts linked their base case of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 to expectations of the CLARITY Act passing. They believe that if the bill passes smoothly, pushing Bitcoin to $100,000, the value of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings would correspondingly rise to approximately $84 billion.

Strategy recently disclosed that its model calculates a lower bound for Bitcoin's annualized return at negative 11.34%. If actual returns fall below this level, the company may need to consider restructuring its debt. Notably, two listed companies sold a combined 511 Bitcoins within 24 hours to repay approximately $31.7 million in debt. These financial pressures are relatively independent of the CLARITY Act's legislative progress but could be amplified in an environment where the bill's passage is delayed and market sentiment is weak. Strategy is set to release its Q2 earnings during the week of July 30-31, and the market expects its stock price volatility to increase during this period.

3. Washington Political Landscape: Future Legislation Will Be Much Harder

Looking at the Senate voting structure, the bill's passage depends on securing support from 7 to 9 Democratic senators to overcome the 60-vote threshold. On the Republican side, Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul are expected to vote against it based on substantive grounds. This means that even if all 53 Republican senators are present, they would still be unable to push the bill through on their own. On the Democratic side, Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona is considered a relatively reliable source of support.

It is worth noting that the Democratic opposition to the bill is not purely about the crypto regulatory framework itself. It is significantly linked to Trump's and his family's disclosed crypto assets exceeding $1 billion. Several Democratic senators view the ethics clause as a check on the President's potential conflict of interest. Senator Angela Alsobrooks previously referred to a compromise proposal from the White House as a "frivolous proposal." This has, to some extent, tied the legislative process of the CLARITY Act to the broader objective of opposing Trump, rather than being a purely technical debate on industry regulation.

If the bill ultimately fails to pass within 2026, most analysts believe this will not create a regulatory vacuum. Instead, it means the crypto industry will continue to rely on two existing paths in the short term: first, the GENIUS Act, which took effect in July 2025, currently specifically governing payment stablecoins and their issuers; and second, the respective regulatory agendas of the SEC and CFTC, with the SEC's Regulation Crypto proposal expected to formally enter the rulemaking process in the second half of 2026.

From a timing perspective, the November 2026 midterm elections are a key variable affecting the bill's future progress. Most analysts believe that if the window before the August recess is missed, the likelihood of resuming deliberations in the fall is significantly compressed due to appropriations bill disputes and the approaching election cycle. Substantial progress will likely have to wait until 2027, which itself falls within a period of political realignment post-midterms, significantly reducing the chance of sustaining the previous bipartisan consensus on the bill. Some industry lobbyists have proposed an alternative path: incorporating the core provisions of the CLARITY Act into a must-pass omnibus bill by the end of the year. However, as of now, no senator has publicly confirmed that this strategy is being seriously considered.