Adjustment End or Trend Continuation: BTC and HYPE Technical Structure Review | Guest Analysis

This week's report focuses on a multi-timeframe technical structure analysis of two major targets: BTC and HYPE. For Bitcoin, we analyze the corrective structure since the May 6th high from both daily and 4-hour perspectives. Combined with our proprietary quantitative model, we provide forecasts for key resistance, support levels, and short-to-medium-term trading paths for this week. For HYPE, we concentrate on the 4-hour level trend, analyzing the structural evolution of the current rebound and proposing corresponding risk management suggestions for short-term operations this week. Below are the details.

Last Week's Strategy Verification

• BTC Price Forecast Verification: Last week's article clearly pointed out that Bitcoin's short-term correction was nearing its end. The actual market movement was largely consistent with the predicted trend, validating the forward-looking analysis.
• HYPE Price Forecast Verification: Last week's article indicated that a short-term long entry opportunity for HYPE was emerging. Current market trends confirm this judgment.

I. Bitcoin Multi-Timeframe Trend Structure Analysis

1. Daily Level Trend Structure Analysis

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart

Figure 1

① As shown in Figure 1: Since the corrective trend began at the May 6th high of $82,850, the daily chart has formed a clear four-wave corrective structure from "End Point 0" to "End Point 4".

② The market is currently in the (3-4) rebound phase. The final position of "End Point 4" will determine the short-term price movement.

• Path One: If the rebound price at "End Point 4" breaks above the $65,700 resistance level, the probability of a subsequent price decline directly breaking through the July 1st low of $57,820 will significantly decrease. In this scenario, the market is expected to rebound again after the correction concludes, with the overall short-term trend leaning towards range-bound consolidation. The longer this consolidation structure persists, the more it helps to slow down bearish momentum and gather strength for a subsequent bullish counterattack.
• Path Two: If the rebound price at "End Point 4" fails to reach $65,700, or is even lower than $64,500, the probability of a subsequent price decline directly breaking below $57,820 will increase substantially. The market is then more likely to continue its downward trend.

③ According to analysis from our proprietary quantitative model, the probability of the market entering range-bound consolidation (i.e., Path One) is significant.

2. In-depth Analysis of Hourly Level Trend Structure (Using 4-Hour Chart)

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 2

① Last week's review pointed out: "If the end point of End Point 44 is lower than $58,110 and accompanied by a momentum bottom divergence, the market will have an opportunity to rebound." Last week's price action confirmed this judgment, with the actual movement highly consistent with the predicted structure.

② On the 4-hour chart, the hourly-level downward wave initiated from the June 15th high of $67,300 has completed a full five-wave structure. Additionally, at the end of the correction, comparing the two lows of "End Point 44" and "End Point 42" reveals a clear momentum bottom divergence pattern, providing technical support for the subsequent oversold rebound.

③ The market is currently in the (44-45) rebound phase. From Figure 2, the current rebound high "End Point 45" has already broken above the lower boundary of the previous "Descending Central Zone F" (approximately $62,300), indicating short-term momentum turning bullish. If the price can further break above "End Point 41" (approximately $65,700) in the coming period, it would mean an upgrade in rebound strength, and the probability of a subsequent pullback directly breaking below "End Point 44" (approximately $57,820) would be significantly reduced.

II. Bitcoin Price Forecast and Trading Strategy for This Week (07.06-07.12)

1. BTC Trend Forecast for This Week

Core Viewpoint: Focus on the peak level of the daily oversold rebound initiated from the low of $57,820.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

   • First Resistance Zone: $64,500 - $65,700 region (previous important high/low levels)  

   • Second Resistance Zone: near $67,300 (previous important resistance area)  

   • Third Resistance Zone: $69,500 - $71,000 region (previous important resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels:

    • First Support Level: $60,950 - $62,300 region (previous important support level)

    • Second Support Level: near $57,820 (previous important support level)

    • Third Support Level: near $55,000 (previous important support level)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week

① Medium-Term Strategy:

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 3

As shown in Figure 3, the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel", confirming that the market structure has shifted to a bearish dominant pattern.

• Currently, maintain medium-term short positions at around 20%.
• If the price rallies to the $65,700 - $67,300 zone and shows signs of stagnation, combined with a top signal from our proprietary quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term short position to within 50%.

② Short-Term Strategy

Utilize 30% of capital with a stop-loss set, looking for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute charts as the operating timeframe).

③ Short-Term Operation Plan

To dynamically respond to complex market developments, two specific operation plans (A and B) are drafted in advance:

• Plan A: Short on Strength Near Strong Resistance Zone
• Entry: If the price rallies to the $65,700 - $67,300 zone and meets resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position of around 30%.
• Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss order.
• Exit: When the price corrects down to a key support level and combined with a signal from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to take profits.
• Plan B: Light Long on Weakness Near Strong Support Zone
• Entry: If the price breaks above the $65,700 zone but then retreats due to resistance, falls back to the strong support level near $57,820, and shows signs of stabilization, combined with a bottom signal from the quantitative model, establish a long position of around 15%.
• Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss order.
• Exit: When the price rallies back to a key resistance level and combined with a model signal, gradually close the position to take profits.

III. HYPE Hourly Level Trend Structure Analysis

HYPE 4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 4

1. As shown in Figure 4, last week's review pointed out: "If 'End Point 56' is higher than 'End Point 54', it forms a 'double bottom' pattern, indicating the current correction might end, with a high probability of a rebound starting from 'End Point 56'." To date, the market trajectory is highly consistent with this analysis. In last week's actual movement, HYPE's price rose from "End Point 56" (approx. $60.55) to "End Point 59" (approx. $72.06), achieving a maximum increase of about 19.01% during the period.
2. Analyzing from the 4-hour chart, the rebound of HYPE initiated from the June 25th low of $58.5 (End Point 54) can be broken down into a seven-wave bullish structure on the 4-hour timeframe, namely 54-55, 55-56, 56-57, 57-58, 58-59, 59-60, 60-61.
3. The price is currently in the 60-61 upward wave, and the overall bullish structure appears complete. However, from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model," top warning signals have been triggered at both "End Point 59" and "End Point 61". Furthermore, the price is now approaching the historical high zone near $76.94. Therefore, chasing the rally blindly is inadvisable at this point, and one should be cautious of short-term correction risks.

IV. HYPE Price Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week

1. HYPE Trend Forecast for This Week

Key Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Level: near $75 - $76.94
• Second Resistance Level: near $80

Key Support Levels

• First Support Level: near $68
• Second Support Level: near $65.5
• Third Support Zone: $60.5 - $61.5 region

Core Viewpoint for This Week: Observe the battle between bulls and bears when the price rises to the $75 - $76.94 zone.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week

The focus this week is on closing positions to lock in profits and manage risk. If long positions were already established in the support zone according to the plan, it is recommended to trail the stop-loss up to around $68 to protect profits (or as you see fit). If the market shows signs of correction, positions should be closed promptly to take profits.

V. HYPE Short-Term Operation Review

Strictly adhering to the operation plan based on trading signals from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," we completed one short-term (long) trade last week, achieving a total trading profit of approximately 10.23%.

Short-Term Trade 1: (See Table 1)

① Summary of HYPE Short-Term Trade Details: (Leverage *1)

Table 1

② Short-Term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)

• Entry Strategy:

a. Based on an accurate assessment of the overall upward price trend.

b. When the price effectively broke above the short-term downtrend line, and the "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model" simultaneously issued a bottom divergence resonance signal.

Therefore, we established a 30% long position at $64.

• Exit Strategy:

a. When the price rose to the resistance near $72 and showed signs of stagnation, forming a "top divergence" pattern on the K-line;

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong top warning signal (green dot + white dot), forming a top resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model".

Therefore, we fully closed the position near $70.55.

• Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 10.23%.

HYPE_60 minute K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 5 (Short-Term Trade Diagram)

VI. Special Reminders

1. At Entry: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to secure the principal.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous Monitoring: For every subsequent 1% increase in profit, trail the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in gains.

Financial markets change rapidly, and all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. All viewpoints, analysis models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, serving solely as a personal trading journal. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market carries risks, investment requires caution, and decisions should not be based solely on this content.