CLARITY法案倒數25天：若8月休會前未通關，加密市場將如何？

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng 888 )

The much-anticipated "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act" (CLARITY Act) has been further delayed as expected. Senator Cynthia Lummis previously stated that negotiators aimed to finalize the compromise text around July 4th (US Independence Day) and "advance it in July," but progress has clearly lagged behind.

Now, with the Senate's August 10th recess approaching, the window of opportunity is shrinking rapidly: the bill must cross the 60-vote threshold in the Senate (requiring at least 7 Democrats to cross party lines), be reconciled with the Senate Agriculture Committee's text, merged with the House bill, and signed by the President—all within the next 25 working days, making the timeline extremely tight.

If this pre-August recess window is missed, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year will further decline. In fact, data from the prediction market Polymarket indicates only a 40% chance of passage this year; Galaxy Digital has also lowered its 2026 passage probability to 50%.

1. Review of Latest Developments in the CLARITY Act

The CLARITY Act is a landmark cryptocurrency market structure legislation pushed by the US Congress, aimed at clarifying the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, providing a non-security pathway for decentralized tokens, and requiring registration and anti-money laundering obligations for digital commodity intermediaries.

On July 17, 2025, the House passed HR 3633, introduced by French Hill, with 294 votes in favor and 134 against, including over 70 Democratic votes; on May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced it with a 15-9 vote (13 Republicans + 2 Democrats in support). On June 1, 2026, the CLARITY Act was officially placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar (Calendar No. 423), qualifying for full debate.

However, progress on the CLARITY Act throughout June has been rocky. On June 9, negotiations over ethics clauses related to the President's crypto holdings broke down, directly leading some Democratic lawmakers to soften their positions or impose additional conditions, slowing the bill's entry into floor debate. On June 10, following a meeting between the White House and police and prosecutor groups, the enforcement struggle over Section 604 of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (Developer Protection Clause) reached an impasse; if unresolved, law enforcement groups may lobby against it, and Democratic lawmakers might vote 'no' due to insufficient consumer protection/crime fighting.

Simply put, the former is a "political/ethical hurdle," the latter an "enforcement/security red line," together constituting the final two major obstacles before the CLARITY Act can "clear" the Senate. Without resolution, it's difficult to gather 60 votes and finalize the text, making it impossible to complete the legislative process before the August 10th recess. These two negotiations directly hinder the final push of the CLARITY Act, acting as key "stumbling blocks" that caused the July 4th target to be missed and overall progress to stall. Talks are still attempting to break the ice, but time is critically short.

Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel, stated that for the bill to pass in 2026, "it likely needs Senate passage by the end of July, preferably in June," warning that if the Senate misses the recess, the outlook will significantly deteriorate.

However, the market holds little hope for the bill's passage this year. Galaxy Research lead Alex Thorn lowered his prediction for the bill's passage in 2026 from 75% to 60% on June 5, citing the increasingly tight Senate agenda. Data from the prediction market Polymarket shows only a 40% probability of passage this year.

2. What Happens to Crypto if the CLARITY Act Fails to Pass on Time?

According to analysis by CCN, if the CLARITY Act fails to pass before the August recess, the market's most likely reaction is not a crash but "a slow bleed through premium products." In fact, cryptocurrency's poor performance throughout June indicates the market has already begun repricing legislative uncertainty. (Odaily Note: "Premium products" here mainly refer to various spot ETFs.)

Data shows that throughout June, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of approximately $4.5 billion, equivalent to about 77,000 BTC being redeemed; this is the largest single-month net outflow since the product's launch in January 2024, surpassing the previous record from February 2025 (about $3.56 billion), setting an all-time worst monthly record.

In fact, XRP may be one of the assets most directly and significantly affected by the bill, as the act would permanently cement its commodity classification, eliminating the risk of reversible institutional interpretations. If the bill is delayed long-term or fails, XRP may lose some of its "regulatory premium."

Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, predicts an XRP target price of $8, contingent on the Senate fully passing the relevant bill and $4 billion to $8 billion in ETF inflows. JPMorgan predicts that if the bill passes, XRP ETFs could see inflows of $4.3 billion to $8.4 billion in their first year. Data shows that since the launch of XRP spot ETFs in November 2025, cumulative net inflows are about $1.41 billion, with 84% coming from retail; institutional inflows still await clear regulatory signals.

For Bitcoin, having been classified as a commodity through the joint SEC and CFTC interpretation in March 2026, the CLARITY Act's primary role is to permanently codify this reversible decision into federal law. Even if the bill fails or is delayed long-term, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative remains relatively robust, making it less vulnerable to a direct hit.

The impact on ETH is similar to Bitcoin. Ethereum has also been classified as a commodity by the joint interpretation. Failure of the bill could lead to longer periods of compliance ambiguity for DeFi protocols, suppressing innovation and capital inflows. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick previously estimated an ETH target price of $7,500 by the end of 2026 (later revised down to $4,000), assuming the relevant bill was passed.

Kristin Smith, Head of the Solana Policy Institute, stated that many asset allocators are actively exploring investments in digital assets but are holding back capital due to unclear regulatory guidelines. The same applies to institutional DeFi, where projects are currently on hold awaiting the introduction of Section 604.

3. Where Does The Path Lie Ahead?

Time is running out for the CLARITY Act to clear its hurdles. Several scenarios could unfold next:

• First, passage before the August recess: The biggest catalyst, potentially leading to significant price rebounds, especially for XRP and related ETFs;
• Second, delay until 2027: The least desirable outcome for the market, extending the "slow bleed" process and causing institutional capital to remain on the sidelines;
• Third, failure and push to the next Congress: The CLARITY Act is currently in the 119th Congress. If it fails to complete Senate floor voting, reconciliation, and final passage before the August 2026 recess, the entire process cannot conclude within this Congress. When the new Congress (the 120th, 2027-2028) begins, the bill must be reintroduced and go through all committee hearings, floor debates, and other procedures from scratch.

The CLARITY Act is currently in a critical "stuck at the doorstep" phase. Technically, it's on the Senate calendar, but political negotiations, the time window, and bipartisan support remain the biggest obstacles.

However, as Vincent Chok, CEO of First Digital, stated: "The CLARITY Act reaching the Senate floor for a vote itself shows the US is closer than ever to resolving regulatory ambiguity... A successful vote will accelerate the process, but failure won't necessarily stop it. In fact, a delay in the US framework could create urgency and extend the window for setting global standards, potentially establishing the US as the de facto global digital asset center."