How far are we from the end of the crypto bear market?

Wenser

Odaily资深作者

@wenser2010

2026-07-03 10:17

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The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been "negative" for 46 consecutive days, breaking the historical record.

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Core Viewpoint: The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been negative for 46 consecutive days, setting a new all-time record. Combined with the continuous decline in BTC and ETH prices and the loss of key support levels, the current bear market cycle is confirmed and has yet to bottom out, likely lasting at least another 2-3 months.
Key Factors:
1. The Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 46 consecutive days since May 19, surpassing the previous record of 40 days set in January, reflecting persistently weak demand in the U.S. market.
2. Strategy's sale of 32 BTC in early June triggered market panic. This, coupled with consecutive net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, served as the direct catalyst for the recent sharp decline.
3. BTC fell over 16% in the first week of June, breaking below $60,000 and the 200-week moving average, marking its worst weekly performance since the FTX collapse in 2022.
4. The scale of losses among long-term holders has hit a new high, with 10.83 million BTC in a loss position. ETH whales are experiencing an overall loss for the first time since 2019.
5. Previous bottom predictions from multiple institutions (e.g., CryptoQuant pointing to $53,600, BIT suggesting an end in August) have been invalidated by subsequent declines, further dampening market confidence.
6. The price of STRC preferred shares once fell to a historic low of $73. Although Strategy later stabilized the situation through a buyback plan, the price reverting to $100 remains one of the key indicators for the end of the bear market.
7. Analysts are sharply divided. Yi Lihua predicts a bottom in July-August (BTC $43,000-$51,000), while Jiang Zhuo'er predicts a bottom in October-December ($42,000-$44,000), with late September to early October seen as a key rebound window.

Original｜Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010)

According to Coinglass data, from May 19 to today (July 3), the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in "negative" territory for 46 consecutive days, setting a record for the "longest consecutive negative streak." Previously, the index had been in negative premium for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, breaking the longest "consecutive negative" record since the indicator's launch, surpassing the roughly 30-day consecutive negative premium period during last year's "October 11 crash."

Considering that BTC and ETH have recently fallen below key price points such as $58,000 and $1,600, the exact timing of the bear market's end remains unclear. For many, the wait is particularly agonizing.

An overview of the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index

The Biggest Trigger for BTC's Plunge: Strategy Selling BTC to Survive, Expanding Losses

In late May and early June, Strategy, the largest BTC treasury company and a leading cryptocurrency concept stock, sold BTC for the first time in three years. This transaction, involving only 32 BTC, quickly sparked panic in the crypto market, acting like the last straw that broke the camel's back. Prices of mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and SOL subsequently plummeted.

Combined with persistent net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and continuous bleeding in the crypto market, the shadow of the crypto bear market once again hangs over everyone in the industry.

Bear Market Onset: BTC Records Worst Single Week Since 2022 in Early June

In the first week of June, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, recording its worst single-week performance since the FTX exchange collapse in 2022. In the approximately seven days leading up to June 7, Bitcoin accumulated a 16% decline, retreating over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.

On the data front at that time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with cumulative outflows reaching approximately $5.5 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price fell below the widely watched "200-week moving average," a key support level, further weakening market confidence.

Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market conditions as a "silent bear market," believing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is an important confirmation signal of the market entering a bearish phase.

Although BTC subsequently rebounded slightly to around $65,000, several market analysts warned at the time that the rebound might be unsustainable, and Bitcoin may not have hit the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still a considerable distance from a "true bottom."

From the author's perspective, if the market still held hopes for a significant BTC rebound in May, Strategy's action of selling BTC for survival directly shattered people's last illusions, marking the symbolic beginning of the "bear market confirmation" phase.

Bear Market Continues: Predictions of Bear Market's End Proven Wrong

On June 11, crypto research institution CryptoQuant stated in a post that Bitcoin might form a bottom around $53,600, which is the current realized price of Bitcoin, i.e., the average on-chain cost basis of all market participants. The report pointed out that in previous major bear market cycles, Bitcoin typically bottoms out near or slightly below its realized price.

On June 12, BIT released its latest weekly report titled "Will the FIFA World Cup Mark the End of the Bitcoin Bear Market?" It suggested that Bitcoin's current bearish trajectory is largely consistent with its outlook from early February 2026. The previously predicted A-B-C corrective structure has entered its final phase: after the A-wave decline to the $60,000-$69,000 range, Bitcoin rebounded to the $80,000-$90,000 range, forming a temporary top around $83,000, after which the rebound momentum gradually weakened.

BIT noted that the current Fear & Greed Index is approaching historical low levels with significant reference value, showing some structural similarity to the bottom formation of the 2022 bear market. It maintained its previous view that the quiet summer trading period during the 2026 World Cup could mark the final phase of this Bitcoin bear market.

On June 17, crypto research firm K33 stated that the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has reached an all-time high, suggesting the bear market might be nearing its end. It emphasized that the reactivation of old coins in 2026 has been notably subdued, with only 218,421 Bitcoins reactivated as of June 6, indicating significantly reduced on-chain selling pressure. In contrast, 1.18 million Bitcoins had been reactivated by the same period in 2024. K33 believes that the decline in old coin activity suggests long-term holders are less willing to sell, and patient participants are continuously absorbing supply.

However, Bitcoin's further decline soon shattered these optimistic views, indicating the bear market's march continues.

Bear Market Indicators: STRC De-pegs from $100, Losses Widen for Long-term BTC and ETH Holders

On June 18, after falling below $95 earlier in the month, Strategy's preferred stock STRC dropped below $90, closing at $89, recording its lowest daily closing price since its IPO and its lowest dividend-adjusted closing price since November last year.

Subsequently, STRC continued its downward slide, persistently de-pegging.

On June 26, STRC's pre-market price briefly fell to $73, hitting an all-time low. Market attention then shifted to two things: first, the ex-dividend date on June 30, where eligible holders would receive a dividend of $0.48 per share on July 15; second, the resetting of the monthly dividend rate. At that time, STRC's effective yield was near 15%, and investors expected Strategy to raise the dividend rate from 11.50% to at least 12% or 12.50%.

Three days later, on June 29, Strategy officially announced a $1 billion digital credit security buyback plan and launched a board-approved "up to $1.25 billion BTC Realization Plan." Its dollar reserves also increased to $2.55 billion following the implementation of various fundraising plans, giving it the capacity to pay interest on preferred stocks like STRC. STRC's discount crisis was temporarily resolved for the time being, with its price recovering to above $80 and currently trading at $87.87.

Source: Strategy Official Website

However, affected by the continued decline of BTC and ETH, losses for long-term holders have further widened.

On June 25, Bitcoin briefly fell to around $59,100, with 10.83 million BTC in a loss position, a record high, surpassing the previous bear market bottom peak of about 10.5 million. Long-term holders (holding for at least 155 days) held a record 14.8 million BTC (Note from Odaily: The total circulating supply of Bitcoin is approximately 20 million coins), of which 37% were in a loss state. Latest data shows the number of BTC held by long-term holders has grown to 16.61 million BTC today, with the average cost basis dropping to around $49,700.

Data on June 26 showed that ETH whales have fallen into losses for the first time since 2019. Even during the 2022 bear market, the largest whales holding over 100,000 ETH remained profitable. Currently, the unrealized profit ratios for all three categories of whales are negative: -0.26 for the 1,000 to 10,000 ETH range, -0.21 for the 10,000 to 100,000 ETH range, and -0.05 for the 100,000+ ETH range. This state has persisted for several weeks.

Bitcoin UTXO data on June 28 showed that the ratio of loss-making transaction volume to profitable transaction volume in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "capitulation" phase. The last time a similar low occurred was during the depth of the mid-2023 bear market when Bitcoin's price fell to around $26,000.

Previously, due to the continuous price decline, ETH's market cap briefly fell below $185 billion, being surpassed by USDT. With the price rebounding above $1,700, ETH's market cap currently stands at $207 billion.

In summary, events such as STRC re-anchoring at $100 and long-term BTC and ETH holders moving out of loss positions will be key indicators for the end of the bear market.

Predicting the Bear Market's End: August or December?

Regarding the exact timing of the bear market's end, there is currently no mainstream consensus in the market. Here, we use the views of some industry figures as a reference.

Yi Lihua: July-August Could Be Prime Buying Opportunity

At the end of June, TrendResearch founder Yi Lihua stated in a post that the current decline is the third wave since the October 11 crash. According to wave theory and cyclical patterns, this could be the last major drop for Bitcoin.

The market's primary focus is Bitcoin's current bottom price, mainly influenced by U.S. stocks and MicroStrategy. Concerns over the Fed's CPI data could trigger changes in expectations for rate cuts or even hikes, leading to a continued pullback in U.S. stocks. Secondly, past bear market tails often featured black swan or blow-up events, which have not yet materialized in this cycle, requiring close observation.

Based on Bitcoin's peak of $126,000, a 60% decline corresponds to $51,000, and a 66% decline corresponds to $43,000. In any case, July to August should be the final timeframe and the best buying opportunity, possibly the most worthwhile move in the next three years.

Jiang Zhuoer: BTC Will Bottom at $42,000-$44,000 Between October and December

On June 25, LBCM pool founder Jiang Zhuoer predicted in a post that this BTC bear market would bottom at $44,016 on October 31 this year. Integrating the pattern where mNAV leads coin prices by 6 months at the bottom, he revised the bottoming window to October-December 2026, with a bottom price range of $42,000 to $44,000.

He pointed out the underlying logic: the mNAV (market cap/net asset value ratio, or price per share / BTC value per share) of Strategy's common stock MSTR has fallen to 0.72, close to the lowest point of 0.7 in the previous bull market on May 11, 2022. Based on recent market sentiment events like STRC's significant de-pegging, this is currently predictable as the lowest region of mNAV for this cycle. However, the lowest mNAV does not coincide with the lowest BTC price. In the previous cycle, when mNAV bottomed at 0.7 on May 11, 2022, BTC was at $31,017. BTC then bottomed at $15,476 on November 21, 2022, when mNAV was 1.2, with a 6-month interval between them.

BTC Price Indicators: 4-Year Moving Average, 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap

According to Coinglass data, the BTC 4-Year Moving Average index showed that from June 25 to June 30, affected by BTC briefly falling below $59,000, this index once dropped to 0.95. It has since recovered to around 1 as BTC rebounded above $61,000.

According to the BTC 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap, BTC's current price is roughly in line with the 200-week moving average and has remained below it since June 23, potentially suggesting a price bottom.

Additionally, returning to the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index mentioned at the start of the article, it currently remains at -0.123%. Based on previous positive ranges, BTC's price would need to rebound to around $77,000 for the index to have a chance of turning positive.

In summary, without strong external positive catalysts, this bear market is likely to last at least another 2-3 months. The period from late September to early October will be a critical window for determining whether BTC can stage a rebound.