6月26日SpaceX開始闖入指數後，幾百億的資金是如何買入的？SpaceX是否會被爆拉？

Author: SoSoValue Research



If you open any stock trading app or forum right now, you’ll probably see the same types of posts:

“$SPCX is about to enter the Nasdaq 100; tens of billions in passive funds are coming in, time to position early?”

“Effective July 6th, will it pump 20 points that day?”

As of writing, according to data from the decentralized RWA trading platform SoDEX.com, the perpetual contract price of SpaceX ($SPCX) is trading around $150. For a company that hasn’t even been officially included in an index, its total market cap has already “taken off” to $2 trillion — that’s the magic of speculative anticipation.

If you’re already pondering these questions, it means you’re thinking deeper than 70% of traders. But the truth might shock you — those tens of billions in buy orders won’t stupidly pile in on “effective date” to lift your bags. The image you have of a “big player buying with one click” simply doesn’t exist on Wall Street’s script.

In this article, we’ll break down the seemingly simple matter of “index inclusion” in thorough detail. You’ll see that behind it lies a carefully orchestrated, multi-layered liquidity landscape. If you don’t understand the rules of the game, you could easily go from “bag lifter” to “exit liquidity.”

1. The “Commander-in-Chief” You Imagine Doesn’t Exist

Retail investors usually picture this:

At 9:30 AM on July 6th, the Nasdaq exchange rings its bell. A “commander-in-chief” of an index fund controlling hundreds of billions gives the order, a trader hits enter, and a massive buy order slams into the market, sending $SPCX’s price straight up.

Exciting. Inspiring. But completely wrong.

In reality, those hundreds of billions are scattered across hundreds of fund management firms. BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street — each manages funds tracking different indices. They don’t collude, take no unified orders, and are even competitors. Yet their operations will synchronize at a certain moment, not because someone commands them, but because they all follow the same iron rule:

“Minimize tracking error.”

The KPI for passive funds isn’t “how much money they made,” but “how much they deviated from the index.” Buying cheap isn’t good; buying expensive is the real taboo. As long as the transaction price differs from the closing price used to calculate the index, tracking error emerges. Large errors can lead to bonus deductions or even job loss for fund managers.

So, these people fear “standing out” the most. Their sole wish is to buy the required shares at a price as close to the closing price as possible on the index effective date. Don’t aim for bargains, don’t seek attention — complete the task like an invisible person.

Here’s the problem: hundreds of hungry people must rush into the same supermarket at the same time to grab the same hot item, and the boss’s order is — whoever buys it expensive is out.

How do you think they’ll scramble?

2. Two Indices, Two Scripts, But Neither Pounces on the “Last Day”

SpaceX is being added to two indices: the Russell US Index and the Nasdaq 100. Their rules differ, leading to completely different buying rhythms.

Script One: Russell Index — The action is in the final minute of the close

The Russell Index uses a simple rule: announced on June 26th, takes effect after market close that day. No hesitation period, no transition.

Retail traders usually think funds tracking the Russell will be buying aggressively throughout June 26th. But if you watch the intraday chart that day, you might be disappointed — the price could be muted, and volume might not be as explosive as imagined.

Because all the buying is compressed into that final moment of the close.

Wall Street has a tool specifically invented for this day, called “MOC orders” (Market-On-Close). In simpler terms:

“I don’t care what the transaction price is. At the closing auction moment, you must buy all the shares I need.”

On Russell’s annual reconstitution day, trillions of dollars in passive funds converge into an MOC torrent in the final minutes before the close. The closing auction volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq explodes several times over in an instant. You watch the chart all day and think nothing happened, but in reality, the massive transfer of shares happens quietly within seconds of the closing bell.

You didn’t see the volume surge because you didn’t watch those few seconds.

Script Two: Nasdaq 100 — A “legal front-run” window of 10 days

Nasdaq’s rules are different. Based on predictions, SpaceX will be announced for fast inclusion on June 26th, officially effective July 6th. The 10-day gap is the most exciting phase of the entire game.

Many retail traders wonder: should you buy on announcement day or wait until the effective date?

The answer is: Whatever you think of, Wall Street already has, and is executing with real money. During these 10 days, three groups appear in the market:

Group 1: Arbitrage funds — Legitimate “bag lifters.”

On announcement day, this group starts accumulating. Their logic is brutally simple: hundreds of billions in passive funds must buy on July 6th regardless of price. If I buy now and sell to them during the closing auction, I make a guaranteed profit. They aren’t betting on SpaceX’s fundamentals — they’re betting that “passive fund buying is rigid.”

Group 2: More aggressive index funds.

They fear the free float on July 6th will be too small to fill their orders, so they start one or two days early, breaking orders into small lots and quietly accumulating in the secondary market through algorithms.

Group 3: The most rigid bulk of index funds.

They strictly follow the rules, leaving their biggest order for the July 6th closing auction, aiming to resolve it all in one MOC shot.

So, the real script for the 10-day window is: In the first few days after announcement, arbitrage funds push the price up; in the middle days, front-running funds quietly accumulate; on the final day, the bulk of funds and arbitrage funds execute precise cross-trades at the closing instant.

The bitter conclusion: If you charge in on July 6th thinking passive funds will lift your bags, you’ll likely be the exit liquidity being unloaded by the first two groups.

3. Lock-up Period: The Ultimate Boss Determining “Pump or Not”

The above analysis assumes one basic condition — enough circulating stock available to buy.

SpaceX breaks this assumption.

IPO on June 12th, then June 26th and July 6th — less than a month apart. Under traditional IPO lock-up rules, most original shareholders’ stocks are locked for 180 days. The “free float” truly tradable on the secondary market might be only 10-20% of total shares.

Let’s do the math: Assume SpaceX’s post-IPO market cap reaches $2 trillion, with a free float of 15%. That’s a free float market cap of only $300 billion. Yet passive funds for the Nasdaq 100 alone are expected to buy $10.2 to $12.7 billion. That means eating over 4% of the free float.

4%, in one day. And with hundreds of hungry funds using “at any price” MOC orders.

If all this money bull-rushed directly into the July 6th closing auction, the stock price wouldn’t just rise a few points — it could create a pulse of tens of points or more.

So, how do Wall Street’s hungry funds avoid this stampede?

The answer might surprise you again: They don’t go scrambling in the “supermarket.”

Path One: “Backdoor” Block Trades

Fund managers call investment banks’ sales desks directly: “Bro, find me a few large institutional holders privately. I’ll negotiate a price with them OTC and transfer hundreds of millions in shares in one go. Don’t make a mess in the exchange’s public market.”

These OTC block trades bypass the exchange’s central matching system. The transaction price is negotiated, and details might only be disclosed days later. You stare at the candlestick chart and see nothing.

Path Two: “Bypass” via Derivatives

A more advanced move is signing a total return swap with a major shareholder still in the lock-up period. Simply put: you keep holding the stock, it’s still yours nominally, but all future gains or losses are mine. Through this financial derivative arrangement, index funds perfectly sidestep the legal restriction “no transfer during lock-up” and also bypass the exchange’s public market system.

The ultimate truth: Most of those hundreds of billions in index buy orders will never appear in the volume bars on your candlestick chart. They’ve already been completed silently in the “dark pools” and OTC markets you can’t see, through block trades and derivatives.

You’ve been waiting for a volume surge signal, but the real smart money has already “secretly crossed the border.”

4. Retail Survival Guide: How Can Ordinary People Participate?

After all this about “what not to do,” you must be wondering: How should I actually participate?

First, a harsh premise: Ordinary retail investors are completely mismatched with institutions in terms of information, tools, and access. Trying to short-term trade against institutions for a slice of meat gives you a win rate lower than a coin flip. So we’ll only discuss relatively stable, non-insider “dumb methods.”

Worst Strategy: Chasing Pumps on Direction

Some retail traders see the June 26th inclusion announcement, assume the price will rise, and immediately buy in chasing highs. Others, bolder, use derivatives to amplify returns. In such a volatile game of speculation, a wrong directional bet combined with high leverage means liquidation in an instant. You think you’re arbitraging, but you’re actually fighting a knife fight against well-equipped institutions.

Medium Strategy: Wait for Emotional Lows, Go Long-Term

The logic is simple: Index inclusion creates structural passive fund demand that is real and long-term. But short-term prices will be swung dramatically by arbitrage funds and sentiment.

If you’re bullish on SpaceX long-term, wait for the dust to settle — for example, one or two weeks after the effective date, when arbitrage funds have sold off, volume normalizes, and the price stabilizes — before considering building a position in batches. When building a position, you can consider levered tools, like SoDEX.com, a popular decentralized RWA trading platform that supports up to 20x leverage for SpaceX investment. This way, you profit from the company’s growth. SoDEX also recently launched a $SPCX trading event with a prize pool of $100,000, offering extra returns.

Best Strategy: Use Options to Profit from Volatility — the Most Stable, Most Technical

Around index inclusion, the greatest certainty isn’t whether the stock goes up or down, but that volatility will definitely spike. Everyone knows big money is coming, but no one can pinpoint which day. This uncertainty drives option prices (premiums) very high.

This gives option sellers a natural advantage. A classic stable strategy is to sell a Strangle when implied volatility spikes — simultaneously selling an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put.

You’re not profiting from price direction; you’re profiting from “the stock won’t go up that crazily or down that badly.” As long as the price stays between the two strike prices at expiration, you pocket the entire premium. Why is this relatively stable? Because you’re on the side of time. Arbitrage funds and passive funds will most likely complete their handovers through OTC dark pools, and the real fluctuation on the candlestick chart is often less dramatic than what option pricing reflects. You’re profiting from “pricing errors.”

Of course, a warning: If an extreme black swan occurs (e.g., lock-up shares are suddenly allowed for early sale), the seller’s losses are theoretically unlimited. Strictly control position size and have a stop-loss plan ready.

Core Mindset

In this game, the most important lesson for retail isn’t “how to front-run institutions,” but “how to exploit institutions’ rule constraints to find their pricing mistakes.” Options volatility arbitrage is one relatively high-probability approach.

5. So, Will SpaceX Be Pushed Up Dramatically?

By now, you should be able to answer this question yourself.

It might rise, but not in the way you imagine — “an instant 20-point pump on effective date.”

The real action will likely occur during the warm-up period after the June 26th inclusion announcement. Arbitrage funds and front-running funds jostle there, pushing the price to an equilibrium level. By July 6th, the effective date, you might see a bizarre sight — huge volume, but a calm price. Because both buyers and sellers complete precise cross-trades at that instant of the closing auction.

The “final battle” you imagine is actually a carefully rehearsed “settlement ceremony.” The rousing charge was sounded before the battle even began. By the time you hear the noise and rush in, only scattered cleanup gunfire remains on the battlefield.

So, back to the question at the start of this article:

How do hundreds of billions in funds buy SpaceX?

The answer is: They’ve already bought it, in places you can’t see, using tools you can’t imagine, while your guard was down.

At the index table, the most important thing isn’t guessing whether price goes up or down, but understanding the game’s rules. Otherwise, you won’t even know how you lost.