每周編輯精選 Weekly Editor's Picks（0627-0703）

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-07-04 02:18

本文約3472字，閱讀全文需要約5分鐘

優質深度分析文章及一週熱點惡補。

AI總結

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核心觀點：當前市場脆弱性加劇，比特幣作為對沖工具的性價比上升；AI算力成本下降反而推升晶片需求，輝達正從晶片供應商演變為算力生態的「中央銀行」；歐盟MiCA法規生效導致交易所大規模清退。
關鍵要素：
1. 全球供應鏈擾動削弱多國經濟韌性，市場脆弱性快速累積，流動性枯竭促使資金向少數交易集中。
2. AI模型降價推動物理算力需求上升，輝達透過「算力合作計劃」向下游延伸，參與營收分成以掌控產業鏈。
3. Meta可能釋放過剩算力的消息引發SK海力士等儲存晶片股暴跌，但此回調更多由情緒驅動，非產業趨勢反轉。
4. iPhone利潤分配中蘋果約佔25%，台積電佔4-5%，記憶體供應商僅佔約3%，但有AI撐腰後議價能力增強。
5. 歐盟MiCA過渡期結束，約194家加密企業獲得授權，Bitget、KuCoin等仍在申請，幣安撤回申請致用戶外流。
6. Strategy發佈「數位信用資本框架」自救方案，包括現金儲備、比特幣變現等計劃，市場反應積極。
7. 川普揭露持有超過1億美元BTC和ETH，美CFTC對Polymarket發起調查，SEC啟動ETF規則審查。

The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analysis articles can easily be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column retrieves these valuable insights from a sea of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain the observations, and spark inspiration.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

Metrics Ventures Market Observation: The Fragility of the World is Rapidly Accumulating

Since 2022, disruptions to global supply chains have gradually pushed the economic resilience and monetary/fiscal policy autonomy of countries like Japan, South Korea, and Europe into a corner, quietly building momentum for future shocks in global capital markets. Liquidity is drying up everywhere except for AI and certain non-ferrous metal industries. Fragile nations are rushing to double down on centralized trading, and such a desperate gamble is unlikely to end well under the current international political and economic situation.

We need to seriously consider the possibility of MSTR continuously selling BTC, and the bleak outlook for demand makes BTC increasingly cost-effective as a hedging/shorting strategy against other assets.

What Does Apple's $4.3 Trillion Market Cap Mean? An Easy-to-Understand Stock Valuation Course for Beginners

Start with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to understand the basic pricing of a stock relative to its earnings, comparing it with the company's historical average and peers in the industry. Incorporate the PEG ratio to factor in growth rate—a high P/E ratio is more justifiable when growth is high. Use the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for a revenue perspective that is harder to manipulate. Calculate the free cash flow yield and compare it directly with the risk-free rate—this is the clearest comparison between the actual cash return you get from the business and a risk-free alternative. Use EV/EBITDA for cross-capital-structure comparisons. Assess business quality with ROE and ROIC to provide a basis for fair premiums. Finally, take a step back and consider the DCF perspective: what growth rate is implied by the current price? Is this realistic?

Valuation isn't a formula that outputs buy or sell recommendations. It's a language—a tool to help you think clearly about what you're paying for, what you're getting, and whether the deal makes sense considering everything you know.

Web3 & AI

The Cheaper AI Gets, the More Expensive Chips Become

There used to be a line in the AI narrative: inference efficiency would kill chip demand. However, the reality is the opposite—the cheaper AI becomes, the more valuable physical computing power is. Every dollar model manufacturers spend on price wars ends up in the pockets of chip and wafer foundries.

Nvidia is Starting to Take a Cut of Cloud Providers' Revenue

Nvidia is offering financial backstop commitments to younger cloud service providers that lease its GPUs. If these companies can't find enough AI developers to rent the computing power, Nvidia will repurchase unsold GPU capacity at a pre-agreed price. In exchange, Nvidia will take a percentage of these cloud providers' revenue, with the share gradually decreasing over the contract period.

The "AI Computing Partnership" marks a significant strategic shift for Nvidia. On one hand, it expands its customer base by lowering the financing barrier for emerging cloud providers. On the other hand, through revenue-sharing, it directly participates in the profit distribution of the downstream computing market, extending its control further down the AI industry chain. Nvidia is evolving from a chip seller into the "central bank" of the AI computing ecosystem.

On the Eve of Its US Trip, SK Hynix Crashed Like a 'Dogshit' Token

News that "Meta might release excess computing power" sparked speculation that big tech firms could cut capital expenditures, causing significant market volatility. As the narrative of AI computing power being in "absolute scarcity" began to waver, the semiconductor memory chip sector took a direct hit, with related stocks experiencing massive pullbacks in the secondary market—SK Hynix's Korean stock price closed down 14.57%, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in market value in a single day.

However, this sharp drop in SK Hynix, along with the broader sector correction, is more akin to a liquidity-driven stampede amplified by sentiment rather than a fundamental reversal of the industry trend.

Apple and the 'Microns': A Power Rebalancing—Deconstructing the iPhone's Profit Breakdown

Of the profit from a single iPhone, Apple takes about one-quarter, memory giants take about one-thirtieth, TSMC, due to its monopoly position, takes about 4%-5% of the profit, while the remainder covers other hardware suppliers, distribution channels, R&D, and taxes.

With AI backing them up, memory suppliers have finally become bolder in their negotiations with Apple.

Prediction Markets

Predicting World Cup Knockout Stages: Why Are Different AIs So Different?

Gemini and DeepSeek nail the underdog stories, Grok and Qwen master the small-scoreline results in popular matches, while ChatGPT and Claude are better for analyzing match processes.

With Frequent World Cup Upsets, the 'Dumb Money' in Prediction Markets is Hilarious

Loss-making cases aren't necessarily reliable contrarian indicators.

Policy & Stablecoins

MiCA Transition Ends, License Shortage: Europe Faces Its Largest Exchange Purge

On July 1st, the transitional grace period for the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) officially ended.

Approximately 194 crypto companies have received formal MiCA authorization. Coinbase (Luxembourg), Kraken (Ireland), OKX (Malta), and Bybit (Austria) secured licenses ahead of time. Bitget and KuCoin are still in the application process without a confirmed location. Binance withdrew its application in Greece, leading to a short-term outflow of users and funds.

A Major Competitor Arrives: CRCL Plunges Over 17%

The new dollar stablecoin, Open USD from Open Standard, will officially launch later this year. Its partnership list is impressive, and the yield generated from its reserve assets will belong to its partners.

From the very beginning, Open USD stands at a starting point far higher than ordinary new projects in terms of compliance, distribution channels, and adoption rates.

CeFi & DeFi

Quick Five-Point Plan! Strategy's Self-Rescue Plan Officially Released

Strategy officially unveiled its new "Digital Credit Capital Framework" plan, aimed at strengthening the credit quality of its various preferred shares (clearly referring to STRC here), improving liquidity, and creating long-term value for shareholders while maintaining long-term Bitcoin exposure.

Specific measures include: cash reserve status; STRC dividend policy; preferred stock buyback plan; common stock buyback plan; Bitcoin monetization plan.

The market holds relatively positive expectations for Strategy's self-rescue plan. Both MSTR and STRC saw price increases.

Why is it Hard for STRC Preferred Shares to Return to $100?

A higher dividend payout rate would become a financial burden for Strategy, potentially worsening its financial condition. Offering a high dividend rate in an unfavorable environment might also become a negative psychological factor for investors. Therefore, adjusting the dividend rate cannot be a fundamental solution. Unless there is a redemption, the claim right of $100 per share is meaningless.

Meme

Real-Life 'Black Mirror' Pump.fun Go: $40 to Lick a Toilet, $14,000 for a Forehead Logo Tattoo

Ethereum & Scaling

EF: Ethereum is Becoming the Most Needed Neutral Infrastructure for Governments and Institutions

Weekly Hot Topic Catch-Up

Policy & Macro Markets

The US CFTC launched a broad investigation into Polymarket;

The SEC initiated a review of ETF rules, focusing on crypto funds and prediction market ETFs;

The SEC investigated alleged insider trading involving Futu and Tiger Brokers, netting $100 million in profits through options bets;

Warsh: The Fed will chart a new course and will not provide forward guidance; Inflation risks have declined somewhat;

Trump disclosed holding over $100 million in BTC and ETH, with income over $1.4 billion in the 2025 filing period; Trump responded to receiving massive crypto gains: He was unaware;

Trump: Made a lot of money from the rising stock market, last year's profit was solely due to the stock market rise, funds managed by professionals;

South Korea will invest 800 trillion won to build chip factories for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (analysis);

Opinions & Voices

Anthropic CEO warns: Open-source AI is heading down a dangerous path with potential irreversible misuse risks;

Cathie Wood: New AI technology is ushering in a productivity cycle, the inflation rebound narrative weakened by macro data;

Wall Street's interpretation of "Meta's 'selling computing power' crashing AI hardware" (analysis): Not a sign of excess computing power, not an industry inflection point;

Agent for the '1011 Insider Whale': AI computing trades are shifting, capital flowing from memory chips to hyperscale cloud providers;

Bitwise CIO: The sharp drop in STRC is a bottom signal, bull market will start in the fall;

Galaxy: Structural conflict exists between SEC custody rules and DeFi demand, limiting RIA allocation to on-chain assets;