每周編輯精選 Weekly Editor's Picks（0509-0515）

郝方舟

Odaily资深作者

@OdailyChina

2026-05-16 02:32

本文約3409字，閱讀全文需要約5分鐘

優質深度分析文章及一週熱點惡補。

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核心觀點：本週區塊鏈與加密市場聚焦於監管政策（CLARITY法案）和地緣政治（NACHO交易）對資產價格和市場結構的雙重影響，同時公鏈融資熱潮與CeFi新敘事（Uniswap v4 Hook）為市場帶來新變數，但HYPE等資產的高FDV與未解鎖拋壓風險值得警惕。
關鍵要素：
1. 華爾街興起「NACHO」交易，押注荷姆茲海峽持續關閉，透過保險、油價和降息市場博弈地緣風險，取代了此前押注「川普認慫」的TACO交易。
2. Bitwise報告指出，頂級資本正押注Arc、Canton、Tempo等新公鏈，專為穩定幣與資產代幣化場景設計，資本動向跟隨監管立法，隱私保護成核心應用方向。
3. 觀點認為HYPE再翻倍難度大，因其75%代幣未解鎖帶來拋壓，當前FDV已接近傳統交易所估值，新買家來源不明，且面臨監管、駭客等多項風險。
4. CLARITY法案若通過將掃清機構入場障礙，CFTC明確管轄DeFi，導致逐利資金從閒置穩定幣理財撤離，湧向Pendle、Morpho等合規收益類協議。
5. Uniswap v4 Hook機制代幣（如sato、Lo0p）引爆市場新敘事，帶動生態發展，但UNI短期漲幅有限。
6. LayerZero因Kelp DAO攻擊事件面臨信任危機，資金加速向Chainlink的CCIP協議遷移，鏈上數據增長，Chainlink成為此次危機受益者。
7. Grayscale建議修改以太坊質押模型，設置獎勵上限曲線，以控制ETH通膨並強化其價值儲存敘事，雖降低短期質押收益但利好長期價格。

The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analytical articles are easily overshadowed by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Pick" column retrieves these valuable pieces of content from the vast sea of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and gain inspiration.

Macro

"TACO" is outdated; Wall Street is now embracing "NACHO" trades

NACHO stands for "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens."

It's the inverse of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). TACO bets on "the person backing down" – that Trump will flinch at a critical moment. NACHO bets on "the situation stalemating" – that the Strait of Hormuz can't be reopened this time with just one Truth Social post.

NACHO isn't just talk; it's the same wager placed with real money across three independent derivatives markets: insurance, oil prices, and interest rate cuts.

The market is no longer trading Trump's next Truth Social post but is instead trading the early June inventory data for the Strait of Hormuz.

Investment & Entrepreneurship

After 50x Storage, Justin Sun Always Looks to the Next Decade

"Short-term chip shortage, long-term energy shortage, and an eternal shortage of storage."

In early 2026, Justin Sun's predictions were: embodied intelligence, drones, spatial computing, and space exploration.

Anthropic and OpenAI Cut Off the Logic of Pre-IPO Crypto Stocks Themselves

Anthropic and OpenAI have successively stated that they "do not recognize unauthorized stock transfers." The risks of SPVs being over-financialized through "matryoshka doll" structures have begun to surface. Reflected at the market level, pre-IPO stock tokens have plummeted, while contracts are relatively stable.

Anthropic and OpenAI's public "refutations" are, to some extent, redefining the boundaries of this wild growth market. For speculators, this is a risk education lesson; for the long-term development of the industry, the market might also need such a "de-bubbling" moment.

Bitwise: Why Are Top Capitals Aggressively Betting on New Public Chains?

The three public chains, Arc, Canton, and Tempo, are all tailor-made for stablecoin and asset tokenization scenarios.

The key insight from this wave of concentrated funding frenzy is: Capital always follows regulatory legislation; privacy protection may become a phenomenal core application.

Niche View: Why It's Hard for HYPE to Double Again

75% of the token supply is yet to be unlocked, implying sustained selling pressure in the future; The current FDV is already approaching or even exceeding the valuation range of some traditional exchanges; And at this price, it's still unclear whether the marginal buyers will come from retail investors, traditional institutions, or crypto funds.

More importantly, HYPE faces risks beyond just valuation, including regulatory issues, hacker attacks, key person dependency, and trader liquidity migration.

For an asset that has already received market attention and concentrated hype from KOLs, the real question is no longer "does it have a narrative?" but "at this price, who will keep buying?" When a crypto asset evolves from alpha to consensus, investors need to re-evaluate not just how good the project itself is, but whether the current price has already priced in the future prematurely.

AI

The Semiconductor Century: An Investment Roadmap Amidst the 2026 AI Frenzy

High-value AI chips contribute about half of the industry's revenue but account for less than 0.2% of total shipments. Semiconductors have evolved from consumer electronics components into strategic assets for giants with market caps exceeding $10 trillion.

The four key players in the supply chain are: Designers (Architects), Foundries (Manufacturers), Equipment Manufacturers (Tool Providers), and Memory Manufacturers (Storage Layer).

Key companies worth studying include: NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, AMD, Broadcom (AVGO), and SK Hynix.

Semiconductor ETFs include: SMH — VanEck Semiconductor ETF, SOXX — iShares Semiconductor ETF, SOXQ — Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF.

Key catalysts to watch: The trillion-dollar market cap milestone, TSMC Arizona fab ramp-up, NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform deployment, AMD market share progress, memory pricing, and HBM4 supply.

Policy & Stablecoins

When Stablecoins Stop Yielding: 7 DeFi Protocols Benefiting from the CLARITY Act

Once the CLARITY Act is officially enacted, it will immediately trigger two major changes: Clear institutional entry barriers. BlackRock, Apollo, Deutsche Bank, pension funds, corporate treasuries, etc., have been on the sidelines. Compliance teams couldn't assess whether related assets were securities, preventing large-scale allocation. Now, with the CFTC establishing clear jurisdiction and DeFi getting a safe harbor, institutions can finally enter in a big way. Yield-seeking funds flee idle stablecoin products. The previous model of earning ~5% APY just by holding USDC on exchanges will disappear. Tens of billions of dollars seeking stable yields must find new allocation channels.

Therefore, two massive pools of capital (institutional investors finally entering + retail investors seeking yield) will converge on the same type of target: compliant, real-business-case structured yield-generating products.

Protocols tailored for this new regulatory landscape include: Pendle (underlying yield infrastructure layer), Morpho (on-chain prime broker), Sky (USDS / sUSDS), Maple Finance (on-chain credit trading desk), Centrifuge (RWA asset native issuance layer), and protocols leveraging STRC assets (fixed-income track pathway).

Also recommended: "Earnings, Legislation, Fed… Circle Faces Three Major Tests This Week", "CLARITY Act Unveiled: Is Ethereum the Biggest Winner?", "Under the CLARITY Act, XRP and the New Order of the Crypto Market".

CeFi & DeFi

Is Hook Summer Really Here? Sato, Lo0p, FLOOD Ignite New Uniswap v4 Narrative

Following ASTEROID, ecosystem tokens backed by the Uniswap v4 Hook protocol like sato, sat1, Lo0p, and FLOOD have become market focal points, with market caps ranging from millions to tens of millions of dollars, bringing much-needed concentrated liquidity to the narrative-starved crypto market.

Hook mechanism tokens drive Uniswap ecosystem development: UNI is bullish long-term, but limited short-term upside.

$3 Billion DeFi Capital Migration: LayerZero Stumbles, Chainlink Feasts

The rescue operation following the Kelp DAO attack also saw substantial progress recently. However, restoring market trust is proving more difficult than repairing the financial damage.

LayerZero, the cross-chain leader at the center of this storm, faces accelerated departures from many protocols and was forced into a drastic shift in attitude within weeks – from initially shifting blame to publicly apologizing and launching remedial actions. In contrast, Chainlink unexpectedly emerged as a beneficiary of this crisis, with its CCIP protocol absorbing a significant portion of the migrating liquidity, showing a clear increase in on-chain data.

Airdrop Opportunities & Interaction Guides

Hot Interaction Collection | The Beacon Season 1 Pre-Registration; GenLayer Latest Testnet Interaction (May 15)

Circle Releases Arc Whitepaper: What Are the Early Interaction Opportunities?

Meme

From A9 Myth to Millions in Debt: A Meme Trader's 5-Year Journey

Ethereum & Scaling

Grayscale: Ethereum's Staking Model Needs a Rethink

Ethereum's current staking reward model faces two structural issues: L2 diversion leads to reduced token burn and increased net issuance; The staking threshold approaches zero, potentially locking nearly all ETH into staking.

The community is discussing setting a staking reward cap curve, which Grayscale believes would be beneficial for ETH's long-term price. The Ethereum community is considering modifying the network's staking reward model, with the core idea being to only incentivize staking up to a certain percentage, offering no additional rewards beyond that.

If implemented, nominal yields for stakers would decrease. However, Grayscale believes this is positive for ETH's long-term price for two reasons: first, controlling ETH inflation; second, strengthening ETH's narrative as a store of value asset.

Weekly Hot Topic Catch-up

Policy & Macro Market

Trump pays a state visit to China, accompanying entrepreneurs draw attention;

Trump's Q1 "stock trading moves" exposed, igniting discussion;

U.S. Senate votes to confirm Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair;

U.S. Senate Banking Committee passes the CLARITY Act (Interpretation);

Some Senators introduce "anti-DeFi" amendments that could weaken related protections in the CLARITY Act;

Opinions & Voices

Arthur Hayes: U.S.-China AI arms race combined with war inflation makes BTC returning to $126,000 inevitable, and the AI bubble is the biggest opportunity;

Wintermute: The current BTC rally is clearly driven by leverage, with surging open interest but sluggish spot trading volume;

CZ's new interview: Still devotes 80% of energy to blockchain; $10 million is enough for financial freedom;