长鑫之后，宇树当兴：人形机器人第一股的价值与分量

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

On August 19, Unitree Robotics (688836.SH) officially listed on the STAR Market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, turning the title of "First Humanoid Robot Stock on A-Shares" from a name into reality. The stock opened at 1,100 yuan, surging 629.44% from its issue price of 150.80 yuan, far exceeding the average first-day gain of 466.61% for STAR Market new stocks this year. Its market capitalization once peaked at 445 billion yuan. In this year's biggest A-share wealth-creation feast—marked by "only 73 days from listing review to approval, nearly 9.8 million subscription accounts, and an online lottery rate of just 0.018%"—each lot of 500 shares yielded a profit of 475,000 yuan per lot, far exceeding prior estimates, representing a roughly 6.3-fold return on principal.

After overseas SpaceX's "largest IPO in human history" and memory chip newcomer CXMT's "domestic storage leader IPO," Unitree Robotics has taken the capital stage under the banner of "the only profitable humanoid robot manufacturer," and was met with strong demand at its opening.

As of the time of writing, Unitree Robotics' share price is trading at around 892 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 361 billion yuan, a turnover rate of 55.25%, and trading volume exceeding 15.3 billion yuan. As AI and hard technology advance rapidly, Unitree's listing itself is a microcosm of the mainstream market trend in the capital markets.

What Is Unitree Robotics Worth? The Market's Answer: 350-450 Billion Yuan

After Unitree Robotics' IPO subscription period ended, in response to the question of "what is a reasonable market cap range for Unitree Robotics," we previously presented a range of representative market views in our article "How Much Is the 'First Humanoid Robot Stock' Unitree Robotics Really Worth?". As it turns out, the most aggressive estimate from Yu Wenchao, an early investor in Unitree and partner at Dunhong Capital, as shared in this interview, came closest to the capital market's pricing. He noted: "A market cap exceeding 200 billion yuan after listing is very reasonable, and I believe it could even exceed 400 billion yuan in the short term. Compared to valuations of similar overseas companies, this is not exaggerated." Given the near-450-billion-yuan intraday peak after the opening and the current figure of over 360 billion yuan, Unitree's reasonable valuation range has been revised upward from the previous 200-250 billion yuan to the current 350-450 billion yuan.

High Valuation, Low Float: Unitree Robotics Again Stages a SpaceX, CXMT-Style Rally

It is worth noting that the reason Unitree's market cap was able to surge to more than six times its issuance valuation—beyond the market's fervor and optimistic expectations for humanoid robots—is similar to many projects in the crypto space as well as historic IPOs like SpaceX and CXMT: they all exemplify "low float, high market cap."

According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange announcement, Unitree previously disclosed an issue price of 150.80 yuan per share, with total share capital of 404 million shares after issuance, of which 30.0877 million shares of unrestricted circulating stock were available in the initial listing phase, representing 7.44% of total share capital. The issue price corresponded to a static price-to-sales ratio of 35.89 times on a fully diluted basis for 2025, higher than the average level of comparable companies.

This can also be glimpsed from earlier data on retail lottery rates and total subscription accounts: reportedly, Unitree issued 40.4464 million shares in this offering, accounting for only 10% of total post-issuance share capital. After the clawback mechanism was activated, 9.707 million shares were ultimately issued online, with 9.7846 million valid subscription accounts, resulting in a final lottery rate of 0.0181%—a figure that simultaneously set two records for STAR Market new stocks: the lowest lottery rate and the highest number of participating accounts. There were 19,414 winning numbers in total, and each winning lot of 500 shares required a payment of 75,400 yuan. Online abandonment totaled only 8,734 shares, with zero offline abandonment, indicating strong willingness to pay.

On the other side, the strategic placement allocated to institutions and the relatively high shareholding of founder Wang Xingxing also ensure that selling pressure is weak, preventing a retail stampede on the first day of listing.

It is understood that nine investors, including social security funds, DeepSeek, Tencent, CNPC Kunlun Capital, China Southern Power Grid, and China Telecom Tianyi Capital, were collectively allocated approximately 8.09 million shares, with subscription amounts totaling around 1.22 billion yuan. Among them, DeepSeek was allocated 933,400 shares worth 141 million yuan, with a lock-up period of 36 months—far exceeding the conventional 12 months for institutions. The two parties have signed a strategic cooperation memorandum to jointly develop in three directions: general artificial intelligence, high-performance robotics, and AI large models. The social security fund received the same allocation across three portfolios, with a 12-month lock-up period. Tencent, CNPC, China Southern Power Grid, and Tianyi Capital each received approximately 900,000 shares, with amounts all around 136 million yuan.

Before Unitree's listing, the most criticized or debated point was its price-to-earnings ratio of up to 219 times.

However, calculated based on 2025 non-GAAP net profit, the corresponding P/E ratio is 92.92 times; the fully diluted static price-to-sales ratio for 2025 is 35.89 times. While still higher than the average of comparable companies, this is considerably more reasonable compared to the "219" figure. As things stand now, given that most comparable domestic and overseas companies have yet to turn a profit, while Unitree achieved 600 million yuan in non-GAAP profit in 2025 and shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots in 2025—the highest globally—the 150.8 yuan issue price was actually a value trap for investors.

Founder Wang Xingxing Tops Wealth Charts: Crowned "New Richest Post-90s Entrepreneur"

Unitree's surge has directly driven up the personal wealth of founder Wang Xingxing.

According to the prospectus, Wang Xingxing, Chairman, General Manager, and CTO of Unitree, directly holds 86.7149 million shares of the company, representing 21.4395% of total share capital after issuance. In addition, prior to the stock issuance, he indirectly held an additional 9.5367% stake in the company through the equity incentive platform Shanghai Yuyi. All told, Wang Xingxing's direct and indirect combined stake in Unitree totals approximately 31% or more, with a market value exceeding 110 billion yuan, thereby clinching the highly meaningful title of "China's Richest Post-90s Entrepreneur."

Previously, this title belonged to Liu Jingkang, founder of Insta360, who had been named the new richest post-90s entrepreneur with a net worth of 20.2 billion yuan.

Of course, Wang Xingxing is not the only beneficiary of Unitree's successful listing and surging market cap—many investment institutions and individuals behind the company also stand to gain. At the employee level, Yang Zhiyu (head of mechanical structure), Chen Li (head of sales and service), and Zhang Yangguang (head of algorithms and software) indirectly hold stakes in the company of 0.49%, 0.26%, and 0.15%, respectively, through Shanghai Yuyi. Based on a 350-billion-yuan market cap, the value of their shareholdings reaches 1.715 billion yuan, 910 million yuan, and 525 million yuan, respectively, entering the"Billionaires' Club" alongside Wang Xingxing.

Unitree's Listing Wealth Feast: Meituan's Wang Xing, Xiaomi's Lei Jun, DeepSeek's Liang Wenfeng

Meituan: Paper Gains Exceed 33.3 Billion Yuan, Holds Approximately 35.12 Million Shares

As the largest external shareholder of Unitree, Meituan-affiliated capital holds approximately 35.12 million shares in aggregate through companies including Hanhai Information, Chengdu Longzhu, and Galaxy Z, with paper gains exceeding 33.3 billion yuan during this IPO.

Liang Wenfeng: 1.1 Billion Yuan in Paper Gains from Unitree IPO

DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng, through his entities DeepSeek, High-Flyer Quant, and Jiuzhang Asset, was allocated approximately 1.19 million shares in total via strategic placement and offline subscription. Based on an issue price of 150.8 yuan and a peak opening price of 1,100 yuan, Liang's paper gains from the IPO once exceeded 1.1 billion yuan. At the current market cap of 360 billion yuan, his shareholding is valued at approximately 1.06 billion yuan, still representing paper gains of around 882 million yuan.

Lei Jun: Shunwei Capital Affiliate's Paper Gains Exceed 15.2 Billion Yuan

Lei Jun's Shunwei Capital affiliate, Astrend IV, an overseas investment vehicle, holds 16.106 million shares of Unitree, representing approximately 3.98% of total post-issuance share capital, making it the company's fifth-largest shareholder. Its paper gains once exceeded 15.2 billion yuan.

It's worth noting that Shunwei Capital participated in Unitree's Series A financing back in 2021, with funding in the tens of millions of dollars. Earlier this year, Lei Jun reflected on the investment with some emotion: "Thank you, Wang Xingxing, for giving us the opportunity to invest in Unitree five years ago."

Beyond the aforementioned institutions and individuals, Unitree's shareholder list also includes a host of prominent institutions and internet tech giants: Sequoia Capital China holds a combined 7.11%, Matrix Partners China holds 5.45%, and Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are also on the shareholder roster.

Unitree's Ecosystem Positioning Revisited: Can It Become the "World's First Humanoid Robot Stock"?

For Unitree as it stands today, the IPO is far from a finish line where it can rest. A new challenge has emerged: how to grow from China's "first humanoid robot stock" into the "world's first humanoid robot stock"? With a current market cap of around 360 billion yuan, Unitree's position in the global humanoid robot track is not yet firmly secured.

Overseas Competitors at a Glance: Figure AI, Boston Dynamics, Optimus in Close Pursuit

From an overseas perspective, the highest-valued company at present is Figure AI, with a valuation of approximately 39 to 40 billion USD, equivalent to around 280 billion yuan. Despite monthly production of only about 150 units and not yet being publicly listed;

Boston Dynamics, famous in the industry but with a turbulent history, is valued at just 3.4 billion USD, approximately 22.9 billion yuan. It is currently under Hyundai Motor, with initial commercial deliveries beginning in 2026;

1X Technologies is valued at approximately 10 billion USD, Physical Intelligence at around 5.6 billion USD, Apptronik at around 5.5 billion USD, and Agility Robotics at approximately 2.1 to 2.5 billion USD (already listed via SPAC).

Tesla's Optimus does not have a standalone valuation, being part of Tesla's overall market cap of approximately 1.33 trillion USD, with mass production planned to begin by the end of 2026.

Domestic Comparables: Agibot, UBTech, Dobot Still Far Behind

Among domestic comparables, Agibot Robotics, after its backdoor listing via Shangwei New Materials, has a market cap of approximately 68.3 billion yuan; UBTech's Hong Kong market cap is around 42.7 billion HKD (approximately 36.7 billion yuan); Dobot is valued at around 10.9 billion HKD (approximately 9.36 billion yuan).

On the other side, countless embodied intelligence companies are queuing up for the next IPO slot: on July 24, Agibot Robotics officially announced the initiation of its Hong Kong listing process; market rumors suggest a target valuation of approximately 20 billion USD, with cornerstone round valuation targets of around 40 to 50 billion HKD; Yunshenchu, another member of the "Hangzhou Six Little Dragons," has had its STAR Market IPO application accepted; Galaxy General, Leju Intelligent, Zhi Pingfang, Zizhixing Robot, Zhuji Power, Zhongqing Robot, Xingchen Intelligent, and other embodied intelligence companies are also ramping up efforts.

Additionally, Xinghitu, Songyan Power, Xingdong Epoch, Fourier Intelligence, Yuanli Lingji, and other companies have also completed share reform—according to incomplete statistics, more than 50 robot-related companies are already queuing at the doorstep of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

But behind the intensifying competition and shrinking opportunity window, "the inversion between market valuation and actual delivery volume" is another real hurdle facing the robot track: Figure AI's valuation was previously more than four times that of Unitree, yet its annual deliveries are far lower. Following Unitree's listing, this phenomenon has improved somewhat, but the valuation gap between domestic and overseas markets still objectively exists. To grow into the world's first humanoid robot stock, Unitree's market cap needs to aim for at least 500 billion yuan or more.

Valuation Outlook and Future Trajectory: A Compilation of Perspectives

Regarding the future trajectory of Unitree's share price, the market holds three schools of thought.

The optimistic camp believes that Unitree is a scarce pure-play humanoid robot target on the A-share market—already profitable and ranking first globally in shipments. The strategic partnership with DeepSeek opens up imaginative space for AI+robotics, and long-term capital backing from social security funds and Tencent provides support. Scarcity premiums could push the market cap to above 400 billion yuan in the short term.

The cautious camp points out that the 219x fully diluted P/E ratio already prices in high growth expectations; first-quarter profit declines indicate earnings volatility; more than 70% of humanoid robot revenue still comes from scientific research and education, with industrial penetration still shallow; the digestion path for the planned production capacity of 190,000 units/year at the fundraising project site has yet to be validated; US FCC restrictions create uncertainty for the export of new models; and the high valuation requires sustained earnings growth to digest.

The neutral view is that after an initial surge in the early listing period, the stock will enter a phase of high-level consolidation during the "earnings verification period." Following the path of hard-tech new stocks like CXMT, the share price will gradually return to fundamentals-driven movement, with subsequent trends depending on the pace of industrial scenario adoption and commercial breakthroughs in embodied large models.

In response to the above issues and valuation trajectory, Wang Xingxing also addressed some of these questions at the earlier IPO roadshow. In addition to the "remote-controlled toy controversy" and "P/E ratio controversy" mentioned previously, Wang also provided explanations on valuation, competitive advantages versus overseas counterparts, US FCC restrictions, and commercialization plans:

On valuation: Wang Xingxing noted that most listed and to-be-listed companies in the industry with similar main businesses have yet to turn a profit, while Unitree has already achieved strong profitability