华尔街抢滩以太坊，为何ETH价格持续走弱？

Original Author: Alex O'Donnell

Original Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News

The Ethereum network is gaining recognition from Wall Street, but investors are still not fully bullish on ETH.

In recent months, institutional adoption of Ethereum has accelerated significantly. Since May, several financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase, Robinhood, and Morgan Stanley have successively launched various Ethereum-related products and services. In July, several former members of the Ethereum Foundation established the non-profit independent organization Ethereum Institutional, aiming to accelerate the adoption of Ethereum by major institutions.

At the same time, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin released a major network upgrade roadmap titled "Lean Ethereum," which aims to enhance Ethereum's privacy capabilities and resistance to quantum attacks.

However, the market has not responded positively. At the time of writing, ETH is trading slightly above $1,900, a decline of over 60% from its all-time high of approximately $4,950 in August 2025. Analysts generally believe it will be difficult for ETH to return to its previous highs in the short term. On July 1, Citigroup lowered its 12-month price forecast for Ethereum from $3,175 to $2,240, citing weakening investor demand and continued net outflows from Ethereum ETFs.

Research teams at Galaxy Institutional suggest the reason for the disconnect between market conditions and fundamentals is clear: an increasing number of investors are struggling to understand ETH's value growth logic.

Wall Street's Expansion Continues

Today, institutional use of blockchain is no longer limited to pilot attempts, and Ethereum is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend.

In May, JPMorgan Asset Management launched its second tokenized money market fund, JLTXX, on the Ethereum public chain. In July, online brokerage Robinhood introduced Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 network specifically designed for financial services and tokenized assets.

Morgan Stanley is also pushing ETH further into mainstream securities accounts. Eligible E*TRADE users can now trade and hold Ethereum, Bitcoin, and SOL.

The reason major institutions are increasing their commitment to Ethereum is its mature developer ecosystem and its large, decentralized validator node network. It is likely that institutional deployment will continue to accelerate.

As mentioned by ConsenSys CEO Joe Lubin in a statement on July 1, the vast majority of stablecoin issuances, tokenized assets, decentralized finance, and various on-chain financial infrastructure prefer Ethereum.

Ambitious Upgrade Plans

Furthermore, Ethereum is on the verge of comprehensive technological innovation, and this upgrade will further enhance its appeal to various institutions.

In July, Buterin publicly outlined the "Lean Ethereum" development plan, with the entire restructuring cycle expected to take three to four years. He stated that the scale of this upgrade is comparable to the network-wide upgrade when Ethereum transitioned to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism in 2022.

The upgrade aims to reduce the cost of using Ethereum, enhance network security, and optimize user privacy protection – a crucial factor for institutional traders. If the upgrade is successfully implemented, Ethereum could become one of the first blockchains with reliable resistance to quantum attacks.

Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake stated in July that strong security attributes will become a natural advantage for attracting global institutions to migrate to Ethereum.

Economic Fundamentals Remain Uncertain

Despite a continuous stream of positive news, the price of ETH remains persistently low.

One root cause lies in Ethereum's scaling solutions. Ethereum heavily relies on Layer 2 blockchains for lower-cost and more efficient transaction processing.

Theoretically, higher on-chain activity leads to more transaction fees, which should increase market demand for ETH. However, data from L2Beat shows that since 2024, the vast majority of transactions within the Ethereum ecosystem have been handled by Layer 2 networks, which only periodically finalize settlements on the Ethereum mainnet.

Scaling solutions significantly reduce transaction costs, helping Ethereum handle more traffic, but they also sever the link between on-chain activity and demand for ETH: a large number of transactions move off the mainnet, resulting in fewer fees earned by the Ethereum mainnet.

Researchers at 21Shares stated in January: This change benefits ordinary users, but presents both advantages and disadvantages for ETH holders. Unless the overall on-chain transaction volume surges enough to offset the decline in fee revenue, lower fees will reduce the amount of ETH burned.

Market Forecasts are Polarized

Currently, Ethereum is likely to grow into a core piece of financial infrastructure, but how much benefit ETH holders will ultimately reap remains uncertain. Price forecasts from various industry participants are widely divergent.

Citigroup predicts the ETH price will be slightly above $2,000 in 12 months; Standard Chartered is much more optimistic, forecasting ETH to reach $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by 2030.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee is even more aggressive, suggesting a long-term price target of up to $250,000 for ETH, corresponding to a total market capitalization of approximately $30 trillion.

In summary, the probability of Ethereum becoming mainstream core financial infrastructure is increasing, but whether ordinary token holders can fully share in the benefits of the industry's development remains highly uncertain.