专访PPP：世界杯引爆预测市场，如何找到“可复制的聪明钱”？

Original by Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

With the World Cup in full swing, the prediction market has experienced an unprecedented surge in activity.

From match winners and qualifying outcomes to the ultimate champion and Golden Boot rankings, massive amounts of capital are pouring into the prediction market, driving trading volumes and user engagement to all-time highs. Yet, amidst this frenzy, most average users face an awkward reality — staring at fluctuating probabilities on the screen, they don't know how to operate to achieve consistent profits.

In search of profit certainty, many users track the moves of "smart money" on social media or news platforms. However, this "wait for signals, then manually copy trade" approach often puts them in a passive position. Since prediction market probabilities fluctuate in real-time, opportunity costs can vanish in an instant, making it difficult for manual operations to keep pace.

To address this, some users have turned their attention to standard copy-trading tools available in the market, which harbor a more insidious "smart money trap." Many tools simply use "total profit" or "recent win rate" as the sole criterion to showcase so-called smart money addresses. Users see these "gurus" boasting millions of dollars in impressive gains and blindly follow them, only to end up suffering losses themselves.

"Not all profitable addresses are suitable for copy trading."

When discussing the reasons behind this situation, PPP (Prediction Position Platform), a strategy platform we recently came across, gave the above answer.

PPP explained that certain addresses might generate profits due to privileged information, extreme positions, one-time market movements, or capital size advantages. If average users only look at profit rankings, they can easily overlook drawdown, liquidity, position styles, and actual replicability. Blindly copying these addresses often leads to unexpected results. In other words, "being profitable" does not equate to "being copyable."

"An address that can be safely copied by average users must demonstrate stable profitability over a long period with a large sample size. Win rate, maximum drawdown, strategy stability, and position allocation... every indicator is indispensable. Only addresses that pass these dimensional tests have a profit logic that is replicable."

AI Modeling + Human Review: Screening for Truly Reusable Strategies

In PPP's view, the biggest problem facing current prediction market users is how to filter out truly "replicable, verifiable, and sustainable" smart money addresses from a sea of trading addresses, and be able to track the dynamics of these addresses in a simpler way to participate in copy trading.

To this end, PPP is attempting to build a complete system — structuring complex address data and trading signals, ultimately transforming them into strategy entry points accessible and usable by ordinary users.

Lorne, a member of the PPP team, stated: "The market lacks neither monitoring tools nor copy-trading tools. What's missing is a mechanism that structures and cleans complex trading behaviors, turning them into a strategy system that ordinary users can understand, dare to use, and find easy to operate."

Lorne added that PPP employs a dual mechanism based on AI modeling and human review, conducting a comprehensive analysis of specific addresses across multiple dimensions, including but not limited to:

• Profit performance and stability;
• Win rate structure;
• Maximum drawdown and risk exposure;
• Capital size and position allocation;
• Activity level and trading frequency;
• Holding period...

After comprehensive AI modeling of these indicators, the system first eliminates "accidental profits" and "abnormal trading samples." Then, combined with multiple rounds of human review, it ultimately filters out a batch of trading addresses that are statistically more stable and have sustained research value.

PPP emphasizes that its AI algorithm model itself is not publicly disclosed, but the platform makes the analytical capabilities of the model available to users in the form of an "AI Address Analysis Tool." Users can paste addresses they are tracking on PPP, compare them against the smart money address database, and assess their profitability, information advantage, drawdown resistance, and win rate level to determine if the address possesses robust capabilities.

Strategy Layering: Meeting Diverse Needs

After completing the initial screening, PPP further stratifies these replicable smart money addresses and builds two core product systems targeting different user needs.

First is the "Strategy Plaza." According to Lorne, the Strategy Plaza aggregates stable trading strategies that have been validated over a longer period. Addresses entering this system usually need to meet stricter screening criteria, specifically including:

• At least six months of historical trading validation;
• Passing an AI multi-dimensional scoring;
• Human review confirming strategy consistency;
• Focus on risk-reward ratio and drawdown control ability;
• Emphasis on strategy replicability and long-term stability;

In summary, the Strategy Plaza can be understood as a filtered, long-term strategy pool, aiming to provide users seeking stable copy trading with more sustainable options. PPP also conducts regular reviews of the strategies in this section weekly to ensure their continued effectiveness.

Second is the "Trading Hot List." Lorne explained that, unlike the Strategy Plaza, the Trading Hot List is more focused on capturing periodic opportunities. This list is generated by PPP through its AI multi-dimensional model and human review, primarily screening for traders with outstanding performance over the last 30 days, focusing on dimensions such as:

• Profit growth rate;
• Win rate trend;
• Activity level and market participation;
• Short-term capital behavior characteristics;

In this system, high profits often come with higher volatility. PPP has also explicitly warned about this: "This list is more suitable for users looking for short-term opportunities, not long-term stable copy trading strategies."

To meet users' diverse operational needs,PPP provides concise, easy-to-understand abstract summaries and descriptions of the specific styles of strategies and addresses in the Strategy Plaza and Trading Hot List (e.g., "High Implied Win Rate Strategy, Very Volatile"), helping users better understand the differences between strategies and make choices.

In addition to the two standardized ranking systems mentioned above, PPP also offers one-click trading and address copy-trading features – the former helps users immediately copy trades upon receiving a signal, while the latter allows users to input any address of their choice for copy trading.

Lucky Test Run: Over 60% Daily Return

Lorne revealed that PPP has recently officially launched its Telegram Bot product, currently serving as the primary user interface, with a website and other products under active development.

Guided by Lorne, we also tried out the complete user journey as a regular user.

Upon first entry, users need to log in and create a wallet via the Telegram Mini App. PPP's wallet system is non-custodial, meaning users always retain control of the wallet (the private key can be exported following the process; please ensure you keep it safe). This implies that any potential future earnings from the wallet, such as potential airdrops from Polymarket, will belong entirely to the user.

The next steps are deposit and subscription. PPP operates on a subscription model. Users need to subscribe first to unlock full functionality. The monthly subscription fee is 59 USDC, but there is currently a limited-time discount offer reducing the fee to 1.99 USDC, allowing early users to experience the service at a low cost.

Once subscribed, users can see the complete unlocked services on the PPP homepage, including the Strategy Plaza, Trading Hot List, Address Copy Trading, AI Address Analysis, as well as "Wallet & Assets" for checking balances, "Current Copies" for viewing existing positions, and "Signal Detection" for monitoring the latest market movements... PPP has also launched a dedicated World Cup section where users can view real-time match schedules. Furthermore,PPP will continuously update related smart money trends and key trading signals, helping users quickly identify where capital is flowing.

As for the specific copy-trading operation, after selecting a strategy, users can view its core indicators across various dimensions. Once confirmed to meet their needs, they can choose the copy amount or customize settings to start copying. A feature worth highlighting is the "Copy Settings" function, where users can actively adjust parameters such as the trigger amount, copy amount, slippage, take-profit, and maximum position limit for different strategies to control the boundaries of their copy trades.

I personally deposited $100 for a one-day test run, copying two strategies and addresses from the Strategy Plaza and Trading Hot List. When I checked the next day, I was surprised — the net value of my account had reached a peak of $164, representing a daily return of over 60%.

However, during subsequent testing, the account experienced some drawdown. In summary, the main issue was not setting different copy amounts for strategies with different risk profiles, causing a low-probability event to drain excessive funds.

Lorne candidly admitted: "Although PPP has conducted rigorous screening and review of the historical performance of selected strategies, and has validated the address's capabilities through multi-dimensional modeling, the platform cannot guarantee that the strategy accounts will continue to be profitable in the future. Therefore, users are advised to try within their acceptable risk range and avoid getting carried away."

Finding Certainty in an Uncertain Market

After testing for a few days and having an in-depth conversation with Lorne, our most intuitive feeling is that PPP should not be simply understood as a "copy-trading tool." It is more like an attempt to build a structured "compilation" path from trading signals to executable strategies.

Smart money does exist, but it is dispersed across countless addresses, strategies, and short-term fluctuations. Profit records are real, but the underlying risk structure, capital behavior, and strategy stability are often masked by simple profit numbers. This explains why "following smart money" is often unstable in practice — users see the results, but the market operates on the process; users want to replicate the profits but often overlook the path.

PPP is trying to solve this disconnect. By deeply combining AI's complex algorithms with human review, it denoises and structures the originally chaotic and random on-chain trading signals, distilling truly "replicable" smart money strategies, and delivering them to users via the low-barrier TG Bot. This serves as an effective defense against the "smart money trap" and also helps eliminate information asymmetry in the prediction market.

Of course, as Lorne emphasized, no historical backtesting or strategy screening can offer a 100% guarantee of future returns. High returns in the prediction market are inevitably accompanied by high volatility and high risk. While PPP provides a set of "weapons" that have undergone deep processing to help users improve their win rate and avoid obvious pitfalls, ultimately, success in long-term competition depends on the user's own capital management skills and risk appetite.

As the prediction market