美CFTC对Polymarket发起广泛调查，预测市场狂欢季要凉了？

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

Polymarket's deceptive marketing has finally caught the regulatory hammer's attention.

Recently, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched a broad investigation into Polymarket, covering its social media activities and other business operations. Previously, U.S. Republican Senator John Curtis and Democratic Senator Adam Schiff co-signed a letter to CFTC Chairman Mike Selig, urging an investigation into Polymarket's practices of paying KOLs for deceptive marketing and using fraudulent promotional tactics to market gambling-like products to U.S. audiences.

As the World Cup drives prediction market trading volumes to new heights, this move could pour cold water on the sector's development. More importantly, the CFTC's investigation into Polymarket reveals a conflict of interest between U.S. federal and state authorities, as well as between officials and capital. (Recommended reading: "WSJ: Fake Sites, Fake Trades, Real Promotions – Polymarket's Traffic Scam").

Wild West Era of Prediction Market Marketing Ends, Regulation Enters Deeper Waters

If Polymarket's previous tactics—such as using college students to post fake profit videos and paying KOLs to exaggerate prediction profits—were the wild attempts of early prediction market expansion, then the CFTC's formal investigation is clear proof that the prediction market's wild growth phase is over.

Prediction Market Platforms See Explosive Data Growth, Traditional Tech Giants Pay Close Attention

Entering June 2026, with the official start of the World Cup, prediction markets have experienced unprecedented attention, with trading volumes rising steadily.

a16z crypto data shows that prediction market trading volume has hit an all-time high for the third consecutive week. Two weeks ago, total market volume reached $14.4 billion for the first time, a significant increase from roughly $5–6 billion at the beginning of the year. This came just one week after the previous high of approximately $10 billion was set. From a platform perspective, data has also surged:

• The latest data shows that Kalshi's weekly notional trading volume exceeded $10 billion for the first time.
• Polymarket officially stated that its annualized revenue has significantly surpassed $1 billion, a milestone reached just six weeks after its U.S. trading platform was removed from the waitlist. Data indicates that daily trading volume on the U.S. platform grew from approximately $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million by June 20 (based on Dune Analytics data).
• Robinhood's prediction market platform is growing rapidly, with annualized revenue reaching $500 million. In Q2, as of June 25, Robinhood processed approximately 12.3 billion event contract trades. Based on the standard fee of $0.01 per contract, the platform's prediction market revenue for the quarter is estimated to be at least $123 million. Its recently launched Rothera prediction market platform achieved over 900 million trades in its first week, contributing nearly 60% of Robinhood's growth in event contract trading volume.

These impressive figures have also caught the attention of U.S. tech giant Meta. According to media reports, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has urged the company to explore partnerships with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Simultaneously, Meta is developing its own prediction market application called Arena.

All signs indicate that prediction markets have transformed from a niche sector a few years ago into a hot industry experiencing exponential expansion. Regulators will inevitably take notice of this trend. Polymarket's recent deceptive marketing scandal serves as a timely "soft entry point" for regulatory intervention. I believe that going forward, regulators will gradually clarify the boundaries for prediction market platforms concerning marketing, event contract content, and transaction fees. This aims to strengthen investor protection and establish a clear distinction from traditional gambling operations.

Meanwhile, as the investigation deepens, the power struggle between federal regulators like the U.S. CFTC and state-level regulatory authorities is also coming to light.

When the U.S. CFTC Clashes with Nine U.S. States: The Battle for Prediction Market Regulatory Power

Last Tuesday, the U.S. CFTC formally sued the state of Kentucky, seeking to reassert its jurisdiction over prediction market platforms.

In its complaint filed with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, the CFTC argued that Kentucky's attempt to shut down federally regulated designated contract markets interferes with the federal regulatory system established by Congress for the national swaps market. It claims "exclusive jurisdiction" over related event contracts and prediction market products.

Prior to this, Kentucky filed lawsuits against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed, illegal sports betting and gambling within the state. As of June, over twelve U.S. states, including Kentucky and New York, have taken legal action against Polymarket and Kalshi, alleging they operate illegal sports betting. Kentucky has become the ninth state sued by the CFTC in the prediction market regulatory dispute.

This action highlights the escalating conflict between federal derivatives regulation and state-level gambling regulation.

There are two main reasons behind the dispute:

• First, the practical interests of state and local gambling tax revenue. Traditional sports betting generates significant tax revenue for states (e.g., high-tax online gambling). If prediction markets completely replace the gambling industry, states could potentially lose billions of dollars annually in tax revenue (some estimates suggest around $600 million).
• Second, defining the regulatory boundary between the gambling industry and prediction markets as an emerging sector. The CFTC aims to classify "event contracts" as commodity derivatives, futures, or swaps, thereby enforcing federal preemption policy.

The final outcome may depend on how various state courts, and potentially the U.S. Supreme Court, interpret and apply the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA).

Furthermore, a battle has also ignited between exchanges and the U.S. CFTC. Previously, the CFTC approved Kalshi's perpetual futures trading application, prompting the CME Group to sue the former—

It is reported that the CME Group has sued the CFTC and its Chairman Michael Selig in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. The lawsuit challenges the CFTC's May 29 approval allowing Kalshi to launch perpetual futures contracts linked to Bitcoin's spot price. The CME argues that the CFTC handled "futures" with an expiration date as "swaps," violating Congressional directives and the CEA, and requests the court to void the related perpetual futures action. The CME also claims Selig acted unilaterally without a full panel of five commissioners.

A CFTC spokesperson responded, calling the CME's pursuit of "legal warfare" against the agency and the government's crypto policy, stating that "filing the lawsuit is extremely reckless." (They practically wrote "Your case is frivolous" on their forehead.)

Of course, the CME's strong reaction is understandable. The CFTC's decision to open the door for Kalshi's crypto perpetual contracts allows prediction market platforms like Kalshi and crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken to encroach on the CME's "trading territory." The driving force behind this may also be linked to the Trump family.

The Trump Family's "Two-Sided Bet" on Prediction Markets: Donald Trump Jr. Backs Both Kalshi and Polymarket

Recently, it was revealed that Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, with the deal potentially closing in Q3. After completing a $1 billion funding round in May (with investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, and Morgan Stanley), Kalshi's valuation rose from $12 billion to $22 billion. Now, that figure is poised to double.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the company is considering an IPO no earlier than late 2027 or 2028. Kalshi officially stated that as of April 2026, its annualized trading volume reached $178 billion, a 32x increase year-over-year.

It's hard to ignore the connection between these impressive market data and the high enthusiasm from capital markets on one hand, and Donald Trump Jr., a key figure of the Trump family, on the other.

It is understood that Donald Trump Jr. is playing both sides in the prediction market sector:

On one hand, he worked as a paid strategic advisor for Kalshi in early 2025, receiving approximately $300,000 in company equity. At that time, Kalshi was valued at under $2 billion, meaning this investment alone has yielded over a 10x return.

On the other hand, he also serves as an advisor for Polymarket and has made a strategic investment in the latter through 1789 Capital, the venture capital firm where he is a partner.

Furthermore, Trump has repeatedly emphasized the federal government's regulatory power over prediction markets, even stating: "Kalshi and Polymarket will thrive under his leadership."

To some extent, this has mitigated the conflict of interest between capital and official regulatory agencies. The Trump family serves as the "perfect lubricant" in this contradictory event.

Thus, a network of interests connecting federal regulators like the U.S. CFTC, various U.S. states, and Trump family investment entities is gradually taking shape.

As for the CFTC's investigation into Polymarket, it may just be a necessary step in regulating the prediction market industry.

The "Spring of Wild Growth" for prediction markets is ending, but the "Prosperous Summer" for the prediction market industry is slowly approaching.