BIT Research: Three Major Catalysts in October—Will Bitcoin Enter a New Bull Market?

Bitcoin has climbed above its one-year moving average for the first time since December 1, 2025. Bitcoin is currently trading at $84,041, above the $77,788 one-year moving average, ending a ten-month stretch below that line. Historically, this moving average has served as the dividing line between Bitcoin bull and bear markets. If this level can be held, the signal would align with a new bull market phase.

The timing is equally noteworthy. Bitcoin bear markets typically last about twelve months from peak to trough, and Bitcoin hit its all-time high exactly one year ago. Moreover, bear markets often bottom around U.S. midterm elections, with this year's midterm election day falling on November 3. With a dense slate of macro data releases in October, the coming weeks will test whether this rally can be sustained.

Bitcoin Has Risen in Eight of the Past Ten Octobers: Three Catalysts in Two Weeks

Historically, October has been Bitcoin's strongest-performing month. It has posted gains in eight of the past ten years, with an average return of 17.9%, and even in the two down years, declines were limited to just 4% to 5%. This October brings three potential catalysts in quick succession: the CPI data release on October 14, the FOMC rate decision on October 28, and the PCE report on October 29.

The options market also offers favorable conditions. Bitcoin's implied volatility currently sits at around 30%, near the bottom of its multi-year range, making the premium on upside call options relatively cheap. During the 2023–2024 bull market, implied volatility repeatedly spiked to 70%–80% as prices climbed. With the statistically strongest month arriving, three potential catalysts lined up within two weeks, and upside options still relatively inexpensive, such a combination is rare.

PCE Falls to 3.4%, Rate Hike Odds Drop to 40%: Oil Prices and Long-Term Yields Remain Key Risks

Inflation data has begun to cool. The PCE price index, the Fed's most closely watched inflation gauge, peaked at 4.1% year-over-year in June, then fell to 3.7% in July and August, and further declined to 3.4% in September. Some of the decline stems from statistical methodology adjustments, but core CPI, which excludes food and energy, has also edged lower and now stands at just 2.40%. Interest rate futures pricing shows that the probability of another rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting has fallen back to 40%.

However, two major risks remain. Crude oil prices typically lead PCE by about two months, so the recent decline in PCE may largely reflect the drop in oil prices through July, and the subsequent rebound in oil prices could push PCE back toward 4.0%. Meanwhile, long-term yields continue to climb: the rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields prevented Bitcoin from holding onto its initial gains after the PCE data release, as heavy Treasury issuance meets weak investment demand, and investors will demand higher yields before absorbing the supply. Nevertheless, a viable path still exists for 2027: the Fed cuts rates while long-term yields remain elevated. This aligns with the currency debasement thesis: if debt problems continue to weigh on U.S. Treasuries and market confidence in fiscal policy declines, Bitcoin could stand to benefit.

Summary

Taken together, Bitcoin enters October above its one-year moving average, with seasonal patterns, low implied volatility, and three macro catalysts all converging at once. If the FOMC meeting and PCE data are similarly benign, the market's view on the rate path could shift from further hikes to holding rates steady, and even open the door to rate cuts in 2027. This remains a non-consensus view for now, but it aligns with a picture of strengthening bull market momentum.

Looking ahead, the October 14 CPI data, oil price trends, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields will be key variables to watch. If data shows inflation has slowed rather than risen alongside oil prices, Bitcoin could be poised to begin its next leg higher.

The above selected insights are excerpted from BIT on Target. To access the full BIT on Target report, please contact us.

Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading involves risk and is highly volatile. Investors should make investment decisions after fully considering their personal circumstances and consulting professional financial advisors. BIT assumes no responsibility for any investment decisions made based on this content.