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@YeruiZhang
牛市,困境反转和VC盘 今天的文没人赞助猪脚饭(哭哭惹),所以随意写一写觉得有趣的东西。今天正好在一个群里和朋友们聊AR,然后聊到VC盘,又看了律动上一篇关于牛市投资策略的文章,正好上周末也说要写CKB的事,就来写个随笔,可能会有点松散,写到哪儿是哪儿。 最近市场上有两个很有趣的币,一个是AR一个是CKB,其实都是老项目换赛道重获新生然后暴涨的故事,AR从存储到并行计算,CKB从UTXO L1到BTC L2,新的东西和老的东西一脉相承,但是又符合市场最新的叙事。这类的例子从去年底开始其实不少,包括CowSwap做Intent,Gelato做RaaS,RBN转型AEVO等等。因为这里面蕴含这大量的信息差和预期差,这种研究驱动的投资模式更像是VC一级的玩法,所以几个朋友又把这类项目戏称为VC盘项目。 在过去两年的熊市中,这种玩法其实不是很奏效,因为一方面项目方也像是无头苍蝇,不知道该做什么,另一方面delivery新的东西市场不一定会认可。继续归因下去就熊市中更像是存量博弈,大家会追求最有即时反馈/最有直接逻辑的东西,就像是大家都想成为闺蜜盘老鼠仓,上交易所就砸盘。那段时间市场最买单的是MEME币,因为MEME币看起来最没有信息差。而到了牛市就不一样了,一方面牛市是增量博弈,项目的新叙事会有传导过程,谁也不知道传导的最后一环在哪儿,FOMO效应无处不在,另一方面市场渴求新资产新故事,或者说苛求暴富,KOL又加快了叙事传导的速度。结果就是困境反转和新概念的突然来袭和币价的快速上浮让大家没有时间思考,先买入在说。最后一环就是大量VC从一级转向二级,他们的买盘会让一些项目的筹码结构更稳固,后续的空间也就更大。 VC盘玩的是什么?我个人觉得是价格的再发现,是类似VC通过一级的思路去思考二级,是寻找信息差。举个简单的例子,比如说RBN(Aevo),已知Aevo已经起势,交易量足够大,预期换币后估值体系能够直接对标Dydx,并且还有刷单挖矿提高持币成本的预期,然后市场上很多人不知道RBN=Aevo,这些预期综合起来会给项目重新定价。这里VC思路的核心一方面是找对标,比如说Aevo对标Dydx,比如说CowSwap对标头部的Intent项目等等,另一方面是找预期差,通过项目方在社区和社交媒体上透露的蛛丝马迹找到他们要搞什么事,然后判断新的事情能否对币价有充分的提升。换句话说就是给每一个项目做一个自己的估值模型然后不断基于信息和事件调整。 在牛市中VC盘是强左侧交易,交易起来很难获取正反馈,甚至有可能买了半天发现自己的逻辑全错,或者是到了预期的退出价格结果卖飞,都是非常消耗情绪的事情。但是VC盘玩起来就像见证一个项目的成长,发现的过程本来就是有趣的不是吗?
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Topic|SEC hits CEX hard, and the encryption market is in a quagmire again
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3AC liquidator Teneo’s crypto asset holdings at address 0xc7c are worth over US$900 million
Odaily News Scopescan data shows that as the price of WLD rebounds and reaches a new high, the address starting with 0xc7c, labeled Teneo: 3AC Liquidation, currently holds a total value of crypto assets exceeding US$900 million, mainly including: - 75 million WLD , approximately US$623.25 million; -134.17 million STRK, approximately US$250 million; -8.437 million DYDX, approximately US$25.058 million; -160,000 AXS, approximately US$1.242 million.
1 weeks ago
ether.fi responds to questions about points: The platform does transfer all EigenLayer points to use
Odaily reported that according to community news, multiple users discovered that there was a mismatch between the EigenLayer obtained by staking Ethereum on the ether.fi platform and the points due to the TVL of the protocol. BlockBeats consulted ether.fi regarding the mismatch between pledge points and TVL and learned that the platform does transfer 100% of EigenLayer points directly to users, but the ETH received by ether.fi is not immediately pledged, but used Liquidity pool, users can withdr
1 weeks ago
Chain game Heroes of Mavia will announce supported L2 chains on February 27
Odaily news chain game Heroes of Mavia posted on the X platform that it will announce the name of the selected Layer 2 chain at 15:00 UTC on February 27 (23:00 Beijing time). This Layer 2 will support the entire game economy and power the millions of players within Mavia.
1 weeks ago
Binance will launch GLM 1-50 times U-based perpetual contract
Odaily news: According to the official announcement, Binance will launch the GLM 1-50 times U-based perpetual contract at 18:00 on February 22 (Eastern Eighth District time).
1 weeks ago
Grayscale GBTC held 450,400 BTC as of February 21, a decrease of more than 2,652 BTC from the previo
Odaily News Grayscale official data shows that as of February 21, local time, GBTC held 450,404.939 BTC, a decrease of 2652.2012 BTC from the previous trading day. In addition, GBTCs assets under management (non-GAAP) were $22,960,580,835.05, and its circulating shares dropped to 504,510,100 shares.
1 weeks ago
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