Odaily星球日报讯 渣打银行数字资产研究全球主管 Geoff Kendrick 表示，比特币年底达到 10 万美元的预测可能过于保守，市场存在在年底前重新挑战 12.6 万美元历史高点的可能。

Geoff Kendrick 周五表示，近期比特币上涨主要由空头清算推动，同时现货比特币 ETF 资金流入也开始恢复。由于当前市场未平仓合约规模较低，随着价格上涨，仍有更多投资者可能重新入场，为行情提供进一步动力。

“今年首次出现我的年底 10 万美元预测可能偏低的风险。”肯德里克表示。

Geoff Kendrick 认为，比特币反弹势头可能在 10 月 6 日之后进一步加速。与此同时，多位市场人士也认为熊市可能接近尾声。Swan Bitcoin 首席执行官科里·克利普斯滕（Cory Klippsten）此前表示，比特币可能在 10 月触底；10x Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦（Markus Thielen）则认为，若 8 月收盘站上 6.3 万美元，可能确认熊市底部形成。（Cointelegraph）

Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, "Set 10 Big Goals First" has partially cut losses and incurred a loss of $10.158 million, with the latest stop-loss price set at $80,500.

Odaily Odaily News: Arthur Hayes, in a reposted interview video on the X platform, stated that the Ethena (ENA) ecosystem is currently facing a downturn, but as market conditions improve, its yield mechanism may restart. The ENA price has fallen approximately 99% from its all-time high, with selling pressure from venture capital investors and a sluggish crypto market leading to lower yields, bringing the entire mechanism to a standstill.

Arthur Hayes stated that if Bitcoin rises and triggers a large-scale short squeeze, the market basis could rapidly expand, and a higher basis would drive Ethena's yields up from the current ~4% to 8%-9%. Once yields recover, Ethena's yield-driven mechanism could re-establish a positive flywheel effect, revitalizing the ecosystem.

Odaily News: "First, set 10 big goals" posted on Platform X, stating: "The market moved quickly today, so I didn't have time to open a post. Here's an update on my current short position.

1. After the previous short trade ended, I re-entered a short position around 76,000. The logic is actually quite simple. When I opened a long position around 63,000, my initial target was 74,000. I believed the bull market had returned, and that assessment hasn't changed. However, I've always thought this round would be a volatile uptrend rather than moving straight to 84,000 or even 90,000 without any pullback. At least from a macro and market structure perspective, I haven't seen enough signals to support such a move yet. So I re-opened a short position around 76,000. After entering, the price quickly spiked to a high of 79,500. My planned stop-loss wasn't executed as expected (I set it in advance, but the system didn't fill it).

2. I've already reduced the majority of my short position — not because I've changed my view, but to control risk first. If the price continues to surge from here, 82,000 or 84,000 are both possible, so there's no need to bet my entire position on being right. I'll keep watching with the remaining position. If the daily close holds above 80,500, then I'll admit I was wrong on this trade, close everything out, and take a break. If the price ultimately fails to hold and weakens again, I'll consider adding back the shorts I trimmed. As for chasing longs at this level, I have no interest — the risk-reward ratio has deteriorated.

3. Finally, let me share my broader outlook. Last month when the price was around 63,000, I clearly stated that this was a阶段性底部. That assessment remains unchanged. I'm still bullish on BTC in the medium-to-long term, but being bullish medium-to-long term doesn't conflict with taking short positions locally. This short is betting on a pullback within an uptrend, not calling for a new bear market. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it above 80,500. If I'm right, I'll continue executing as planned. I still believe we'll see BTC at $100,000 by March next year."

According to Odaily, Bitcoin recently broke through a key price level, sparking discussions about whether a new bull market has begun. Some analysts believe that rapid gains, concentrated short covering, and technical breakouts are typical signals of a market bottom reversal, but others warn that the macroeconomic environment and capital inflows remain key factors in determining the sustainability of the trend.

Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that Bitcoin's recent rally is very similar to historical bottoming phases, which are typically accompanied by short squeezes, sharp single-day gains, and breakouts above key technical resistance levels, followed by investors who missed the move re-entering the market. He believes that the probability of a significant Bitcoin pullback is currently decreasing, and market FOMO sentiment may further intensify.

However, Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, remains cautious. He noted that without sustained spot ETF inflows and clear signals of interest rate cuts, it is still too early to confirm the bear market is over, and Bitcoin may lose upward momentum near resistance levels.

Analysts point out that the current rally is driven by multiple factors, including the U.S. Treasury's expansion of its bond buyback program, declining long-term yields, and improved sentiment toward risk assets. Previously, Bitcoin had been consolidating in the $64,000 to $66,000 range, accumulating significant short positions in the market. The breakout triggered cascading liquidations in the derivatives market, accelerating the price surge.

Tobias Bauer, co-founder of TBV, noted that Bitcoin futures trading volume on Binance reached $1.26 billion within a minute—361 times the normal level—while funding rates rose to exchange limits, indicating crowded leveraged longs in the market and rising costs for chasing the rally. (CoinDesk)

Odaily News UBS has raised its S&P 500 index target, projecting a target of 8,100 points by December 2026 and further increasing to 8,400 points by June 2027, citing strong corporate earnings growth and sustained economic resilience.

UBS expects S&P 500 companies' earnings per share (EPS) to reach $350 in 2026 and $400 in 2027, driven primarily by performance in the technology, semiconductor, and energy sectors.

The bank continues to hold a positive outlook on U.S. economic resilience, the Federal Reserve's patient policy stance, and the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence, believing there is still room for the current bull market to extend.

However, UBS also flagged potential risks, including rising oil prices, resurgent inflation, and AI investment returns falling short of expectations, which could weigh on market valuations and upward momentum.

Odaily News – Citi remains bullish on the equity market, advising investors to consider increasing equity allocations if a market pullback occurs ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

Citi maintains an "overweight" stance on stocks, citing improving corporate earnings expectations and a loosening market liquidity environment. Despite rising concerns over artificial intelligence in recent weeks, the broader market has yet to show clear risk signals. The bank continues to favor U.S. equities and believes sector rotation could limit downside. Historical data shows that weak pre-midterm election market phases are often followed by strong year-end performance, suggesting that current dips may present buying opportunities.

Odaily News Hong Kong's Court of Appeal yesterday rejected a sentence reduction application from Ma Zhihao, the mastermind of a fraud and human trafficking scheme, upholding the original 56-month prison sentence. During the investigation, Hong Kong police traced criminal funds through blockchain and cryptocurrency transaction records, identifying key evidence of ransom payments and criminal proceeds.

It is reported that the family of one victim paid approximately 9,527 Tether (USDT) tokens to a cryptocurrency wallet designated by the criminals. Blockchain tracing records conclusively showed that 8,127 USDT flowed into an exchange account registered under Ma Zhihao's real name and Hong Kong ID card, subsequently converted into approximately HK$63,000 and transferred to his personal HSBC bank account, serving as critical evidence of his involvement in the crimes and receipt of proceeds. The Court of Appeal noted that had it not been for the District Court's 7-year sentencing cap, the defendant would have faced a significantly heavier penalty. (Caixin)

Odaily Planet Daily News: TD Securities stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh may deliver a dovish stabilizing signal to the market at next week's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

The market will focus on Warsh's clearer stance on the future monetary policy path, as well as whether he reiterates the Fed's commitment to curbing inflation. However, if Warsh continues to avoid providing forward policy guidance, the market may still feel disappointed.

TD Securities expects Warsh's remarks to more likely convey a signal of gradual policy adjustments rather than hinting at a major policy shift. Investors will attempt to glean clues from his statements regarding interest rate trends and changes to the Fed's policy framework.

Odaily News比特币 rose to its highest level since May before the US market opened on Friday, briefly touching $79,400 during trading before hovering around $78,000, just one step away from the key resistance level of $80,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, boosting market risk appetite.

James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that this rally is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than factors within the crypto market itself, noting that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields. Previously, US inflation data came in below expectations, employment data weakened, and the US Treasury announced measures to push down long-term Treasury yields, all of which drove risk assets higher.

Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is an important demarcation line for Bitcoin at present. To form an effective breakout, the market needs further confirmation that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting toward easing, with related signals potentially released at next week's Jackson Hole symposium.

However, he also cautioned that if inflation remains persistently high or the dollar weakens, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Additionally, the scale of accumulation by large holders remains relatively limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support a sustained breakout. Going forward, US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows and macroeconomic data performance will serve as key indicators for judging the sustainability of the trend. (CoinDesk)

Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of "BTC reaching $80,000 in the remaining period of August" on Polymarket has risen to 67%, a 53% increase in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of reaching $85,000 has risen to 22%, up 19% in the past 24 hours.

This market is based on the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Within the month specified in the title (from 00:00 on the 1st to 23:59 on the last day, Eastern Time), if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick equals or exceeds the price specified in the title, it will immediately settle as Yes; otherwise, it will be No.

Only the High price of the 1-minute candlestick on the Binance BTC/USDT pair is considered. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are not included.

Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.

Odaily News According to on-chain monitoring, the whale Loracle (0x8def...92dae) currently holds a 3x leveraged short position on HYPE, comprising 685,740 HYPE tokens with a position value of approximately $51.462 million. The entry price was $53.716, and the current unrealized loss stands at approximately $14.52 million.

1. Arthur Hayes: ETH is the largest position outside of Bitcoin; a break above $3,000 could quickly push it toward $5,000;

2. After holding for over 3 months, the "10.11 insider whale" turned a $97 million Bitcoin long position into profit, with floating gains exceeding $500,000;

3. With floating gains of approximately $1.276 billion, Strategy holds 840,400 BTC;

4. Binance will adjust the tick size for five USD-margined perpetual contracts;

5. Valued at $4.15 million, Galaxy Digital's OTC wallet transferred 55,990 HYPE to Gate exchange;

6. Coinbase CEO: Regulatory clarity for crypto is coming; Bitcoin is expected to reach $300,000 to $400,000 by 2030;

7. The "set 10 big goals first" short position is expected to see floating losses of approximately $10.08 million;

8. CryptoQuant founder: Bitcoin's bear market phase is largely over, and the bottom may have formed;

9. Gold rose above $4,600 per ounce, up 2.4% in 24 hours;

10. DeepSeek launched the multimodal model V4-Flash-Vision-Exp and opened up API services.

Odaily News: According to MSX.COM data, US-listed crypto-related stocks are broadly higher, with Strategy up 10.19%, Circle up 6.69%, Coinbase up 5.97%, Robinhood up 5.64%, and BMNR up 5.47%.

Odaily News: According to the DeepSeek official WeChat account, DeepSeek has launched the multimodal visual understanding model V4-Flash-Vision-Exp and opened up API services.

Building on V4-Flash, this model adds image understanding and visual generation capabilities, supports multimodal input and output including text and images, and provides developers with interfaces for calling capabilities such as inference and generation.