Odaily reports that Polymarket data shows the cumulative trading volume for the 2026 World Cup champion prediction market has surpassed $3.9 billion. Among them, France's championship probability has risen to 35.1%, corresponding to a trading volume of over $94.5 million; Argentina ranks second at 16.8% with a related trading volume of $99.99 million; Spain ranks third at 12.3%.

Odaily: Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that Iran believes reaching a consensus with the United States is possible, despite existing difficulties.

Pre-match position data from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket "World Cup Round of 16: Mexico vs. England" prediction event, multiple profitable addresses have bet on Mexico failing to secure a victory during regular time.

The total profits of the top 5 addresses are $360,000, $350,000, $2.3 million, $650,000, and $16.7 million, respectively.

The Odaily Seer Prophet Channel keeps a close watch on prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.

Odaily reports that Tom Wan, Head of Data at Entropy Advisors and former analyst at 21.co, stated on platform X that the Robinhood Earn vault, managed by Steakhouse Financial on Morpho, has currently reached a TVL of $16 million with an APY of 7.1%. Of this, 1.7% comes from protocol revenue, and 5.4% comes from incentive subsidies.

Tom Wan noted that Robinhood allocates an annual incentive budget of $115 million in USDG to this vault. Based on the current incentive rate of approximately 5%, this could theoretically support a deposit scale of around $2 billion, corresponding to a TVL potential of between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion.

The PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the multi-option prediction event "Which team will LeBron James play for next season" on Polymarket, the probability of him joining the Cleveland Cavaliers has surged to 58%, up 19% in 24 hours, while the probability of him joining the Philadelphia 76ers has dropped to 7%, down 12% in 24 hours.

According to a photo shared by ESPN Cleveland, LeBron James was partying with his high school teammates on the evening of July 4th local time, but the image also featured Cavaliers Assistant General Manager Brandon Weems. Additionally, renowned sports journalist Marc Stein has reported that the possibility of LeBron James reuniting with the Cleveland Cavaliers for a second time is rapidly gaining momentum.

The Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow the prediction market, seeing change before pricing sets in.

PPP Reminder of Upcoming Schedule:

• Brazil - Norway July 6 at 04:00 (UTC+8)

• Mexico - England July 6 at 08:00 (UTC+8)

The latest schedule is updated in real time. Access popular matches with one click and quickly track the current movements of Smart Money.

According to data released by the US-led Combined Maritime Information Center on the 5th, during the 72 hours from July 2 to July 4, a total of 70 merchant ships were escorted by the US through the Strait of Hormuz, below the pre-conflict daily average of 138. The announcement shows that the single-day transit volume of US-coordinated escort ships continues to decline, with 33 ships on July 2, 29 ships on July 3, and 18 ships on July 4.

The Strait of Hormuz currently has two navigable channels: the southern channel near Oman and the northern channel controlled by Iran. The announcement assessed the overall threat level in the Strait of Hormuz as "relatively high" and stated that there remains a risk of naval mines in the strait's waters, with related mine-sweeping and survey operations underway across the area. Interference with the Global Navigation Satellite System has become normalized across the region, continuing to pose risks to the safety of ship navigation.

Odaily reported that Citrini analyst jukan posted on platform X, stating that according to Notebookcheck's new review of the ThinkBook 14 G9, Chinese PC manufacturer Lenovo has for the first time started shipping globally configured laptops equipped with SSDs manufactured by YMTC.

According to GMGN market data, the market cap of Meme coin TCC on the BSC chain briefly exceeded $18 million, and is currently reported at $15.12 million, with a daily increase of over 200 times.

Odaily reminds that Meme coin prices are highly volatile, often driven by market sentiment and hot events, lacking substantial value support. Investors should be aware of the risks.

Odaily Odaily reports that the prediction market industry, represented by Kalshi, is dealing with legal disputes in multiple US states, arguing in a series of court hearings this week that state regulators should not have jurisdiction over the matter. These legal challenges are progressing in Nevada and Michigan, with live arguments taking place in Minnesota, and the case could potentially be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Meanwhile, North Carolina is close to imposing a state tax on prediction market revenue. (CoinDesk).

The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.

The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible.

"Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.

The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.

The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.

The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.

Odaily Planet Daily News: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, one hour ago, the Ethereum Foundation issued the 4th-year grant funding of 2,469 stETH, valued at $4.34 million, to Argot, a non-profit Ethereum development organization.

In July of last year, the Ethereum Foundation provided Argot with a 3-year operational funding grant of 7,000 ETH. After receiving the funds, Argot sold 4,826.6 ETH at an average price of $3,194, converting them into 15.417 million USDC. In July next year, the Ethereum Foundation is expected to issue the final 5th-year grant of 2,469 stETH to Argot.

Odaily Planet Daily reported that, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, an address invested $436.76 to buy CZ, which is currently valued at $211,200, representing a return of 490 times. The address still holds all 3.2 million CZ tokens.

Odaily reported that The Kobeissi Letter, citing Bloomberg on X, stated, "US technology companies have committed a record $850 billion over the next few years for data center leases, an increase of $570 billion year-over-year, representing a 204% jump, and a sequential increase of $200 billion, or 31%."

According to the report, Meta added $79 billion in new commitments in the first quarter of 2026, up 76% from the previous quarter, bringing its total commitments to approximately $183 billion. Microsoft added $41 billion in the same period, up 26% sequentially, bringing its total commitments to around $197 billion. Oracle leads with total commitments of approximately $250 billion, having locked in several key sites to fulfill its contract with OpenAI.

Odaily reports that Michael Saylor, founder and Executive Chairman of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy, has once again posted information related to the Bitcoin Tracker, captioning it “Bitcoin is Digital Energy.”

Following previous patterns, Strategy typically discloses its additional Bitcoin purchases the day after such messages are posted.

Odaily Planet Daily News: According to monitoring by Galaxy's Head of Research, more Noah D`oe-related tokens are moving on-chain. These tokens, which have been dormant for nearly 15 years, are seeing an accelerating pace of on-chain transfers each month from those claimed by Noah Doe.