Odaily星球日报讯 Tom Lee 在本周五参加播客节目时表示，自己对加密货币保持整体乐观，认为尽管有短期下跌（如贵金属吸走投机资金），但长期牛市仍在早期阶段（从 2022 年开始的十年牛市），当前加密市场处于熊市阶段，短期承压严重。ETH 可能触及 2400 美元作为底部（今日以太坊短时最低触及低点 2200 美元，现在 2400 美元附近。），然后反弹。若 ETH/BTC 比率回到历史高点，ETH 可达 12,000 美元左右。

Odaily News Hong Hao published an article analyzing the recent decline in gold and silver prices. He believes the root cause of this plunge lies in the CME margin rule adjustments triggering massive stop-losses and margin calls. This constitutes a liquidity crisis and short-term pricing distortion triggered by a stampede of highly leveraged funds, consistent with the market logic of March 2020, and is not a structural bear market.

Hong Hao stated that the long-term support for gold and silver remains solid. Core logics such as geopolitical conflicts, the pressure from the US's $40 trillion debt, the global trend of de-dollarization, continued central bank gold purchases, and the rigid industrial demand for silver remain unchanged. This plunge represents a phase of deleveraging purification and technical correction within a long-term bull market, not the end of the bull market. Once leverage returns to reasonable levels, prices will re-anchor to fundamentals, and the long-term bull market structure will continue.

Odaily News On January 29th and 30th, within less than 24 hours, Tokyo, Japan, and Hong Kong, China, both renowned for their good social order, were hit by successive robberies targeting large sums of Japanese yen cash. The amounts involved were as high as 420 million yen (approximately 19 million RMB) and 51 million yen (approximately 2.29 million RMB), respectively. About six hours after the incidents, Hong Kong police arrested three suspects attempting to leave the territory at Hong Kong International Airport on charges of "robbery." Simultaneously, police arrested two employees at a cryptocurrency exchange in the Tsim Sha Tsui district—a 28-year-old local man and a 29-year-old mainland Chinese man—on suspicion of assisting the robbers in handling part of the stolen funds. Preliminary intelligence analysis suggests the related Japanese company may have been transporting yen cash to Hong Kong to exchange for Hong Kong dollars, subsequently purchasing duty-free goods in Hong Kong to profit from the tax differential between the two locations. (Caixin)

According to Arkham monitoring, before the cryptocurrency market downturn, Bhutan's sovereign wealth fund had transferred approximately 100.818 BTC to QCP Capital two days prior, valued at around $8.31 million.

Odaily News: "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos posted on platform X, stating that US President Trump attended a speech event the day after announcing Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair. During the event, he joked: if Warsh doesn't lower interest rates, he will sue Warsh.

Odaily News Tom Lee, Chairman of the Board of Ethereum treasury company Bitmine, stated during a podcast this Friday that the current bear market was triggered by the largest deleveraging event in crypto history that occurred last October. Its impact is even greater than the FTX collapse. The cause was a pricing flaw at an exchange that triggered a chain of automatic liquidations, resulting in over 2 million accounts being liquidated globally, one-third of market makers being wiped out, and exchange balance sheets being severely damaged. This led to the entire ecosystem "limping along." He believes the selling pressure is not yet fully over, and recovery, similar to 2022, may take 8-12 weeks, but clear rebound signals have not yet been observed.

Previously, OKX CEO Star posted on X, pointing out that tens of billions of dollars in cryptocurrency were liquidated on October 11th. OKX observed a fundamental change in the microstructure of the cryptocurrency market since that day. Industry insiders believe the losses from this event were more severe than the FTX collapse. The root cause of the event was Binance launching a limited-time campaign offering a 12% annualized yield for USDe and allowing it to be used as collateral with virtually no limits. USDe is essentially a tokenized hedge fund product, structurally different from low-risk money market funds like BlackRock's BUIDL. Binance encouraged users to swap USDT and USDC for USDe to earn yield but did not adequately emphasize the risks. Users engaged in circular borrowing, using USDe as collateral to borrow USDT and swap again, artificially creating an annualized yield premium of 24% to over 70%, leading to a rapid accumulation of systemic risk. When market volatility triggered USDe's depeg, the chain of liquidations exacerbated the crash of assets like WETH and BNSOL. Star noted that industry trust cannot be built on short-term yield gambling or marketing that obscures risks, and Binance, as an industry leader, should bear corresponding responsibility.

Odaily News: Crypto analyst PlanB posted on platform X, stating that Bitcoin's price closed at $78,635 in January, down approximately 38% from its all-time high. Currently, Bitcoin's 200-week moving average is around $58,000, and its realized price is about $55,000 and showing a downward trend; simultaneously, the RSI has fallen below 50, entering the "bear market zone" as defined by his model. Historically, Bitcoin has the potential to fall back to its 200-week moving average or realized price during bear market phases. However, he also pointed out that the momentum in this bull market phase has been relatively weak, with no strong top signals appearing, so the subsequent bear market pullback might be relatively limited.

Odaily News PeckShield posted on X stating that in January 2026, there were 16 hacking incidents in the cryptocurrency space, with total losses reaching $86.01 million. Compared to January 2025 ($87.25 million), this represents a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.42%. However, compared to December 2025 ($75.95 million), it shows a significant month-on-month increase of 13.25%.

Odaily News According to a post on X by renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted Bitcoin's crash in 2018, Bitcoin is hinted to fall to $58,000. The attached chart shows BTC near the lower boundary of its logarithmic channel, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend.

1. Over $2.56 billion was liquidated across the entire network yesterday, setting the highest single-day liquidation record since the "October 11th crash".

2. The founder of Venice created 2 new wallets and spent 1.72 million USDT to purchase 355 XAUT.

3. A whale's Bitcoin long position was fully liquidated after being held for 112 days, resulting in a loss of $6.84 million.

4. Jensen Huang: OpenAI invited us to make an investment of up to $100 billion.

5. The "October 11th Insider Whale" ranks first in terms of losses on Hyperliquid.

6. A whale deposited 3 million USDC into Hyperliquid and placed a HYPE buy order on the spot market.

7. The return rate for Ethereum in January 2026 is -17.52%, while for Bitcoin it is -10.17%.

8. Hong Kong's Financial Secretary: Safe-haven assets like gold have experienced a "sharp advance followed by a rapid retreat" correction.

9. Eight traders, including Machi Big Brother and the "October 11th Insider Whale," all suffered total losses after making huge profits on Hyperliquid.

10. Moltbook may have security vulnerabilities, putting agent accounts like Karpathy's at risk of being compromised.

11. Institution: Wash's nomination as Fed Chair represents a policy intent for the "American version of shifting from the virtual to the real economy."

12. CZ: The polarization in public opinion about me may stem from market cycles and changes in the macro environment; the team will continue building.

13. Li Weihong was elected Chairman of Hong Kong's Financial Affairs Committee; he has previously called for opening up more virtual asset derivative products.

14. Analyst: Profit-taking and hedging activities may be fueling the sell-off in precious metals like gold and silver.

15. The U.S. government shutdown may last longer than expected, and the funding bill is unlikely to pass via a fast-track procedure.

Odaily News According to data from SoSoValue, during this week's trading days (January 26 to January 30, Eastern Time), SOL spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $2.45 million.

The SOL spot ETF with the largest net outflow this week was the Grayscale SOL Trust (GSOL), with a weekly net outflow of $5.492 million. The historical total net inflow for GSOL currently stands at $114 million. This was followed by the Bitwise ETF (BSOL), with a weekly net outflow of $3.5821 million. The historical total net inflow for BSOL currently stands at $678 million.

The SOL spot ETF with the largest net inflow this week was the Fidelity ETF (FSOL), with a weekly net inflow of $5.1398 million. The historical total net inflow for FSOL currently stands at $153 million.

As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of SOL spot ETFs is $992 million. The ETF net asset ratio (the proportion of ETF market value to SOL's total market value) has reached 1.50%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $871 million.

Odaily News According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.49 billion during this week's trading days (January 26 to January 30, Eastern Time).

The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net outflow this week was BlackRock's IBIT, with a weekly net outflow of $947 million. IBIT's cumulative historical net inflow now stands at $61.96 billion. This was followed by Fidelity's FBTC, with a weekly net outflow of $192 million. FBTC's cumulative historical net inflow currently amounts to $11.27 billion.

The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net inflow this week was WisdomTree's Bitcoin Trust BTCW, with a weekly net inflow of $2.7856 million. BTCW's cumulative historical net inflow has now reached $53 million.

As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $106.96 billion. The ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of Bitcoin's total market cap) has reached 6.38%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $55.01 billion.

Odaily News According to SoSoValue data, the XRP spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $52.26 million during this week's trading sessions (from January 26 to January 30, Eastern Time).

The XRP spot ETF with the largest net outflow this week was the Grayscale XRP Trust (GXRP), with a weekly net outflow of $95.7931 million. Currently, GXRP's historical total net inflow has reached $136 million.

The XRP spot ETF with the largest net inflow this week was the Bitwise ETF XRP, with a weekly net inflow of $18.7105 million. Currently, XRP's historical total net inflow has reached $338 million.

As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of XRP spot ETFs is $1.19 billion. The ETF net asset ratio (its market value as a percentage of XRP's total market cap) has reached 1.13%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $1.18 billion.

According to data from SoSoValue, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $327 million during this week's trading sessions (January 26 to January 30, Eastern Time).

The Ethereum spot ETF with the largest net outflow this week was BlackRock's ETF ETHA, with a weekly net outflow of $264 million. The historical total net inflow for ETHA currently stands at $12.24 billion. This was followed by Grayscale's Ethereum Trust ETHE, with a weekly net outflow of $27.6029 million. The historical total net outflow for ETHE currently stands at $5.14 billion.

As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $15.86 billion. The ETF net asset ratio (the proportion of market value relative to Ethereum's total market capitalization) has reached 4.90%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $11.97 billion.

Odaily News CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated on platform X that the current decline in Bitcoin is primarily due to sustained selling pressure and a lack of new capital inflows. He pointed out that the Realized Cap has recently remained largely flat, indicating no significant influx of new capital into the market. Under such conditions, if the total market capitalization falls back, it typically does not align with a bull market structure. Ki Young Ju further noted that, influenced by ETF capital and continued purchases by Strategy, early holders still hold substantial unrealized profits and have been gradually realizing these profits since the beginning of last year. Previously, strong capital inflows once supported Bitcoin around the $100,000 level, but the related incremental capital has now significantly weakened. He believes that Strategy was one of the key drivers of this rally. If Michael Saylor does not engage in large-scale selling, the market may struggle to replicate the deep corrections of around 70% seen in previous cycles. Overall, selling pressure persists, and a clear market bottom has not yet been established. However, this bear market phase is more likely to manifest as a wide-range consolidation pattern.

Odaily News: Vida, founder of Equation News, disclosed his current holdings in a post on his personal channel. He stated that he still holds $3.5 million worth of the silver SLV ETF and has additionally shorted approximately $1.16 million worth of XAG on Binance Futures for hedging purposes.