According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in Polymarket's "World's Most Valuable Company by End of August" prediction market, Apple's probability of being the most valuable company currently stands at 22%, down 73% from today's high. Nvidia's probability of being the most valuable company currently stands at 79%, up 75% from today's low.

According to the settlement rules, this market will be settled based on the global market capitalization rankings of companies at the close of U.S. stock markets on August 31, 2026, with the highest-valued company being declared the final winner. As of now, Apple's market capitalization is approximately $4.97 trillion, ranking first globally; Nvidia's market capitalization is approximately $4.60 trillion, ranking second globally.

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Odaily News: The Iranian military has announced that its suicide drones struck the fighter jet hangars, satellite communication systems, and equipment warehouses at Kuwait's Ahmed Al Jaber Air Base several hours ago.

Odaily News: In response to market rumors that Tesla is considering spinning off its China business to pave the way for a potential future merger with SpaceX, Tesla China has responded that the report is "untrue."

Tesla CEO Elon Musk later responded on social media, saying: "This is fake news."

Odaily News, BIT Official released a weekly report stating that trading volume in the crypto market has fallen 80% from its peak, contracting approximately 60% from the Q4 2025 high, while the total crypto market cap has also dropped 50%. The report noted that without a meaningful recovery in volume, the market will struggle to form a sustained rebound.

Despite the market still digesting the double headwinds of the Fed's hawkish policy stance and stalled progress on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin has held within the $62,000 to $66,000 range. BIT Official expects Bitcoin to eventually break upward.

The report stated that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has recently adopted a "say less, do less" communication strategy, and the uncertainty surrounding his policy stance is unsettling the market. Warsh has been known for his hawkish position over the past two decades, but the market had previously anticipated that, with Trump's support, he might push monetary policy in a more dovish direction. If that shift materializes, it could be a positive catalyst for Bitcoin.

Additionally, prediction market data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law by the end of 2026 currently stands at just 32%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that the Senate will prioritize other issues, and with the August recess approaching, the remaining legislative window for the bill is further narrowing.

Odaily News: ByteDance's AI business has reached an annualized revenue of $4 billion, making it one of the highest publicly disclosed AI revenue figures in China, though it still lags significantly behind leading US AI companies.

According to reports, ByteDance's AI revenue primarily comes from enterprise API calls for the Doubao large model, AI cloud services, and enterprise-level AI solutions. Previously, ByteDance announced via internal email that it would integrate the Feishu and Doubao product teams and the GTM system, with Doubao head Zhao Qi leading the product line in a unified capacity. Volcano Engine head Tan Dai will lead the new ToB GTM organization, the "Creative Services Platform."

This adjustment is seen as ByteDance's largest restructuring of its ToB business since it began segmenting its operations in 2021. The enterprise version of Doubao, developed with the involvement of the Feishu team, is currently undergoing internal testing with select customers, with the goal of further enhancing AI product competitiveness and enterprise customer service capabilities. (South China Morning Post)

Odaily News The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 1% on Friday, in line with expectations. Last month, the central bank raised its benchmark rate to the highest level since 1995. Board member Takata Hajime dissented, supporting a 25-basis-point rate hike. Takata argued that the situation has entered a new phase, and the Bank of Japan needs to adopt a flexible approach to address upside risks to prices and changes in overseas financial conditions. The Bank of Japan stated that it will continue to raise interest rates based on economic and price developments as well as financial conditions. Underlying inflation is close to 2%, and financial conditions remain accommodative. Both significant downside risks to economic activity and significant upside risks to prices have diminished. In its latest economic projections, the Bank of Japan revised down its core CPI forecast for fiscal 2026 from 2.8% to 2.5%, while revising up its GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026 from 0.5% to 0.6%. (Jin Shi)

Odaily News, July 31 — At a Binance offline private session, when discussing the relationship between market cycle research and "metaphysics," renowned economist Hong Hao stated that whether it is investment research or traditional fortune-telling, both are essentially predictions of the future, with the difference lying in the methodology they rely on.

Hong Hao believes that traditional fortune-telling is more based on patterns summarized from long-term empirical observations, while investment research is grounded in historical data, using quantitative analysis to identify patterns and extrapolate future trends. Both are essentially attempts to understand future uncertainty. He noted that market forecasting does not offer a one-size-fits-all answer. "For example, when to buy the dip — I cannot give everyone a single answer, because investment decisions vary from person to person." In his view, whether it is cycle research or prediction, both are fundamentally explorations of future patterns, but any prediction has its boundaries and requires a sense of humility.

Hong Hao concluded: "Prediction, at its core, is peering into the future, and 'divulging the secrets of heaven' is itself a highly challenging endeavor."

Odaily News, July 31 — At a Binance offline private meeting, renowned economist Hong Hao commented on topics including Binance listing stock contracts for Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Motor, as well as global pricing trends for core assets. He stated that exchanges lowering entry barriers for investors will help these assets become more open, diversify investor structures, improve price discovery efficiency, and reduce their vulnerability caused by closed systems and homogeneous investor bases. "One of the core reasons US stocks outperform other markets is capital openness," Hong Hao remarked, adding that enabling more assets to expand their user base is "a good thing."

Hong Hao also pointed out that the value of listed companies is ultimately determined by their profitability, and arbitrage mechanisms in global markets will drive prices toward convergence. Unlike assets like gold and Bitcoin, whose prices are formed through market trading, listed companies continuously generate cash flow, allowing their value to be calculated through discounted future earnings. Regardless of whether a company trades in Korea, the US, or other markets, its intrinsic value does not change based on listing location. "Arbitrage activities will continuously eliminate these price differentials, driving the convergence of prices for the same asset across global markets."

Regarding financial innovations such as on-chain stocks, Hong Hao believes that cryptocurrency technology is propelling global capital markets into an era of 24/7 on-chain trading, which fundamentally enhances the efficiency of global price discovery and represents a significant manifestation of financial innovation. He also noted that financial innovation and regulatory relaxation are two sides of the same coin, and historical experience shows that grand narratives, credit expansion, and regulatory easing are the three key factors essential to prosperous cycles in financial markets.

Odaily News, according to official sources, Gate's stock trading service has undergone a significant upgrade, becoming the industry's first exchange to offer zero fees on US stocks and ETFs. Following the upgrade, qualifying US stock and ETF buy and sell orders no longer incur Gate platform trading fees, and there are no minimum trading fees, account opening fees, or account maintenance fees, further lowering the cost for users to participate in the US stock market.

In addition to platform trading fees, third-party fees such as US market settlement fees, regulatory fees, and ADR custody fees may arise during trading. These fees are executed in accordance with the rules of regulatory agencies, clearing institutions, and custodian banks, and are borne by users based on actual transaction circumstances. Furthermore, after the zero-fee upgrade, US stock trading will no longer be counted toward VIP total trading volume.

Currently, Gate Stocks covers three core markets—US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and Korean stocks—supporting trading in over 12,500 stocks and ETF assets, and offers 7×24-hour trading services, fractional share trading, and stock dividend rights. This zero-fee upgrade further strengthens Gate's global asset trading system, providing users with a lower-cost, more efficient one-stop stock investment experience. In the future, Gate will continue to optimize its trading products and services, building a more open and efficient one-stop asset allocation platform for global users.

Odaily reported that according to the official announcement, Bitget has launched a USDT-margined GRVT perpetual contract, supporting up to 20x leverage, with the futures trading bot available simultaneously. For more details, please refer to the official Bitget platform.

Odaily Planet Daily News Friday morning, South Korea's KOSPI index once surged 17%, mainly benefiting from a new wave of investment enthusiasm in global semiconductor stocks. The South Korean market is experiencing severe volatility due to repeated fluctuations in leveraged trading. The KOSPI index once rose 17% to 6,545.15 points, after three consecutive days of declines to its lowest level since April 7. Samsung Electronics shares rose over 26%, and SK Hynix rose over 29%, both setting record single-day gains. These two chip companies together account for more than half of the KOSPI index by market capitalization. On Thursday, the U.S. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 8%, Micron Technology surged 18%, and Microsoft's strong earnings pushed its shares up 15%, the biggest gain in 18 years, sparking a remarkable rally in semiconductors. In the broader Asian markets, other tech-heavy indices also rose sharply, with the Nikkei 225 up over 5% and Taiwan's Weighted Index up 7%. (Jin Shi)

Odaily 星球日报讯 7 月 31 日，在币安线下私享会上，著名经济学家洪灝分享了对比特币长期价值及市场周期的最新观点。

洪灝表示，比特币长期逻辑十分清晰，其 2100 万枚的固定供应上限决定了其稀缺性，并构建了区别于传统法币体系的价值基础。谈及比特币与黄金的关系，洪灝表示，两者都具备稀缺性和长期价值储存属性，但信用来源有所不同。黄金拥有数千年的人类信用积累，而比特币则依托去中心化网络和固定供给机制，正在形成一种全新的信用体系。长期来看，黄金目标 1 万美元，比特币目标 100 万美元。

对于市场关注的比特币周期，洪灝指出，供给有限决定了这类资产天然具有周期性。他认为，根据其团队的周期模型测算，今年三四季度交替期间或将迎来新一轮周期的重要时间窗口。不过，他也提醒投资者尽管时间窗口临近但仍可保持耐心，等待市场不确定性进一步出清。