Odaily According to CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 11.9% (15.5% before the meeting), the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 88.1% (84.2% before the meeting), and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 0.1% (0.4% before the meeting). The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by the Fed by April is 24.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 73.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 2%.
Odaily News According to Reuters, the White House plans to host a closed-door meeting next week with senior executives from the banking and cryptocurrency industries to discuss the currently stalled digital asset legislation in the Senate. Sources familiar with the matter said the meeting will be led by the White House's crypto affairs committee.
The report indicates that the core agenda of the meeting will focus on the regulatory approach to stablecoin rewards, which has become a major point of contention in the legislative process of the Senate Banking Committee. Tensions between the banking industry and crypto companies over this issue have been escalating in recent months.
The previously passed GENIUS stablecoin framework bill prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders but still leaves room for reward mechanisms provided by third-party platforms, including Coinbase, sparking opposition from banking lobbying groups.
The Blockchain Association has confirmed its participation in the meeting. Its CEO, Summer Mersinger, stated that Congress has an opportunity at this juncture to advance the formation of a stable, bipartisan regulatory framework that protects consumers while promoting responsible innovation, ensuring the United States maintains a global leadership position in the next generation of financial and internet technologies.
Odaily News Coinbase announced that its Prediction Markets are now officially available to users across all 50 US states through a partnership with Kalshi, marking the product's transition from a limited testing phase to nationwide full-scale deployment.
The service allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events such as politics, sports, entertainment, culture, and macroeconomic indicators. Coinbase stated that all prediction market contracts are currently provided by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated compliant prediction market platform, and contracts from more platforms may be integrated in the coming months.
The price of a prediction market contract reflects the market's collective probabilistic judgment on an event's outcome. Users can manage related trades within the same Coinbase interface alongside crypto assets, stocks, and cash positions, with a minimum trade amount of $1 (USD or USDC).
This nationwide launch coincides with a rapid surge in the popularity of prediction markets. Data shows that the combined trading volume of Polymarket and Kalshi reached tens of billions of dollars last year and is expected to hit new highs this month. Traditional financial and trading platforms, including CME Group, Robinhood, and Webull, have also entered the space, while institutions like Goldman Sachs are evaluating related strategies.
Odaily News Fed Chair Powell responded on Wednesday to a question about what he would say to his successor. He indicated he would tell the next Fed Chair not to get involved in political matters. "Stay out of elected politics, don't get involved in elected politics," Powell said during a press conference. He added, "Our window into democratic accountability is Congress. Going to Congress to talk to the people is not a passive burden, it's an active regular obligation. If you want democratic legitimacy, you have to earn it through interaction with our elected overseers." (Jin10)
Odaily News: Spot gold has broken above $5,350 per ounce, setting a new all-time high, with a daily gain of 3.29%. (Jin10)
Odaily News According to Yahoo Finance: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Trump's candidate for Federal Reserve Chair could be announced in about a week.
Odaily News: Federal Reserve Chair Powell: If we see this (tariff inflation peaking and then declining), it would indicate we can ease policy. (Jin10)
Odaily News The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected and indicated that its decision in March will depend on incoming data. Sid Vaidya, an analyst at TD Securities Wealth Management, stated that the statement acknowledged strong GDP growth and stable unemployment, raising the question of how much emphasis the Fed will place on persistently high inflation. Recent series of rate cuts have supported employment. Therefore, Sid Vaidya suspects that the latest statement may signal the Fed's renewed focus on inflation. (Jin10)
Odaily News Federal Reserve Chair Powell: (When asked if the Fed has responded to the Justice Department's subpoena) There is no information to provide today. Will not elaborate further on statements regarding the subpoena. No plans yet for after the Fed Chair term ends. (Jin10)
Odaily News: Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, stated that the Federal Reserve did not cause any waves, and the market widely expected them to hit the pause button. We may not see any rate cuts until after Powell leaves the Fed in May. The potential good news is that they mentioned some positive factors regarding the labor market, but clearly inflation remains a concern. We know that Milan entered the Fed to stir things up, but Waller's choice is somewhat intriguing. His name is still on the list of potential candidates for the next chair, so I'm sure he's also trying to catch Trump's attention, showing that he remains firmly in the dovish camp. The Fed's independence is indeed a real issue, and the next chair will face immense pressure to cut rates. (Jin10)
Odaily News Fed Chair Powell: The policy rate is within a reasonable range of estimates for the neutral rate. (Jin10)
Odaily News Fed Chair Powell: The U.S. economy has solid foundations, the U.S. economy expanded at a solid pace last year, and the economy will enter 2026 on a solid footing. The unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilizing. Current policy helps make progress towards achieving two major goals. (Jin10)
Odaily News According to Goldman Sachs analyst Kai Hai, given strong economic data and signs of stabilization in the labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its policy unchanged for now. However, we expect rate cuts to resume later this year, as slowing inflation will allow the Fed to implement two more "normalization" cuts, bringing interest rates back to the neutral level perceived by members of the Federal Open Market Committee. (Jin10)
Odaily News According to Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown, the policy statement saw almost no changes, although the assessment of economic conditions was upgraded to reflect a "solid" pace of growth. He stated that attention will shift to the press conference, where Fed Chair Powell might mention that the current federal funds rate is likely within a reasonable estimate of the neutral rate range. However, he is expected to firmly avoid any questions regarding his plans beyond May. (Jin10)
Odaily News Currently, Waller's dissenting vote is being linked to his campaign for the Federal Reserve Chair position, at least according to Michael Brown, an analyst at brokerage Pepperston. He stated that this "might keep Waller's slim hopes of succeeding Chairman Powell alive for a while longer."
Polymarket data shows that Kevin Warsh's probability of becoming Fed Chair is currently reported at 28%, Rick Rieder's probability has risen to 39%, Kevin Hassett's probability is currently reported at 6%, and Christopher Waller's probability is currently reported at 12%.
Odaily News The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged today, citing that inflation remains elevated and economic growth remains robust. The policy statement offered little clue as to when the next rate cut might occur. The Fed decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%–3.75% by a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against. The statement noted, "Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace." Governors Waller and Milan cast dissenting votes, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut. The statement did not signal any timing for the next rate cut, stating only that the "extent and timing" of "further adjustments" would depend on incoming data and the economic outlook. Meanwhile, the Fed stated that inflation "remains somewhat elevated," while the labor market "has shown some signs of stabilization." Although the Fed noted that "job gains have remained low," it removed language from its previous statement about increased downside risks to employment, indicating that policymakers' overall concern about a rapid deterioration in the labor market has eased somewhat. (Jin10)
