The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that on Polymarket, for the event "Will the US government ban open-source AI models in 2026?", the "Yes" probability is currently at 16%.

According to the resolution rules, if the US federal government, before December 31, 2026, through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal policy actions, restricts the US public's access or use of a specific open-source AI model, the market outcome will be resolved as "Yes." Otherwise, the market outcome will be resolved as "No." Eligible open-source AI models refer to general-purpose large language models or multimodal foundation models whose model weights and source code are publicly downloadable and can be run on hardware under user control, such as Meta Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen, etc.

Recently, the open-source Kimi K3 model launched by Moonshot AI has drawn market attention to whether it will impact closed-source AI. OpenAI's Director of Strategy, Dean W. Ball, stated on X platform that the US government might adopt soft legal measures to prevent open-source models from entering the US. David Sacks, Chairman of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, believes that using regulatory uncertainty to suppress open-source competition is "unacceptable."

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Odaily Planet Daily News: Zhu Su posted on platform X, stating that oil may be the best reference for comparing with AI. There are many different types of oil, but they all tend toward commodification in the end. This industry requires large-scale, state-backed capital investment. The benefits it brings will be widely shared with all of humanity, and it also requires managing the environmental side effects it brings.

According to OKX market data, PUMP has risen over 21% in the last 24 hours, reaching a high of $0.002072 and is currently trading at $0.001997.

Previously, Ansem posted on X that he had bought PUMP tokens around $0.001675.

Odaily reported that hedge funds' short positions on the New Zealand dollar have hit a record high, as they believe the recent rebound in global oil prices may exacerbate domestic economic pressures in New Zealand. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that during the week ending July 14, leveraged funds' net short positions on the New Zealand dollar increased by 1,907 contracts to 29,582 contracts, the highest level since 2006. This bearish stance contrasts with the recent rebound of the New Zealand dollar, which has been primarily driven by the hawkish policies of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Additionally, investor concerns about New Zealand's energy-importing economy are also reflected in the short positions. Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have pushed crude oil prices back above $90 per barrel. The oil price shock could further deteriorate the country's trade balance. Last month, the country managed to narrowly avoid a trade deficit, while domestic consumer spending has declined. (Jinshi)

Odaily Odaily reports that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded to Chamath Palihapitiya's views on changes in the Bitcoin market on the X platform. Armstrong stated that of the two issues Chamath mentioned, the shift of marginal liquidity to prediction markets and stock markets for speculation may only be temporary, while the trend of Bitcoin mining energy moving towards AI computing demand could have a more long-term impact.

Armstrong also pointed out that the computing power or energy input for Bitcoin mining does not determine Bitcoin's price (if miners exit, the network difficulty will automatically adjust to maintain the same block production rate). In the long run, the price of Bitcoin primarily reflects concerns about inflation, and currently, there seems to be no sign of an end to the persistent fiscal deficits of governments around the world.

According to Gate data, spot silver has risen above $57 per ounce, up 1.95% intraday.

Odaily Planet Daily News: According to monitoring by HyperInsight, Zhipu ZHIPU fell before the Hong Kong stock market opened, dropping to a low of $120.7 within about an hour, a decline of approximately 17%, with losses extending during the Hong Kong trading session. On the news front, Zhipu completed a placement of 19.78 million new H-shares on July 13; on July 17, Kimi released the 2.8 trillion parameter open-source model Kimi K3, causing Zhipu's Hong Kong stock to fall 28.49% that day. As of press time, no new company-level negative surprises have been seen today.

A whale with the largest long position in Zhipu currently holds a 10x isolated long on 7,300 contracts, with a position value of approximately $905,000. The average entry price is $174.2, and the liquidation price is around $78.3, with an unrealized loss of about $367,000. In terms of return rate, this translates to a loss of approximately 288.2%, equivalent to 2.88 times its initial investment of $127,000 to open the position. The whale first opened a long position near $198.45 on the evening of July 6 and has not sold to date. At 10:12 AM today, it added 409.1 contracts at $129.6.

Odaily Odaily reports, according to MSX.COM data, South Korea's KOSPI index touched 6500 points, down 4.72% intraday.

Odaily reported that according to Hyperinsight monitoring, SK Hynix (SKHX) on Hyperliquid experienced a sharp surge and plunge after opening this morning. It opened at $1,168.1, hitting a high of $1,270.1 within half an hour, an increase of about 8.7%. It then quickly retreated, dropping to a low of $1,185.3 at 9:55 AM, a decline of about 6.7% from the peak.

During this volatility, three whales successively established long positions in SKHX, holding a total of 11,620.674 contracts, with a position value of approximately $14.036 million. Based on SK Hynix's current price of $1,198, all three long positions are currently underwater:

- Whale starting with 0xf4b: Newly opened a long position, 10x full position worth about $2.715 million, average price $1,210.659, unrealized loss of about $9,000, liquidation price $1,130.40;

- Whale starting with 0x564: Newly opened a long position, 10x position worth about $4.918 million, average price $1,238.912, unrealized loss of about $125,000, liquidation price $851.59;

- Whale starting with 0x2ab: Closed short positions and turned long, continuously increasing the position, 10x position worth about $6.403 million, average entry price $1,212.854, unrealized loss of about $25,000, liquidation price $650.33.

Among them, the 0xf4b whale is closest to liquidation. When SKHX dropped to $1,185.3 during the session, the difference was only about $54.9. As the price rebounded to $1,298, the distance has now widened to approximately $68.