Odaily News According to the prediction market platform Polymarket, as of February 14th, the probability for the "US government shutdown this Saturday" contract has dropped to 2%, showing a significant decline from previous highs. The cumulative trading volume for this contract is approximately $10.78 million. The market had previously priced in a higher risk of a shutdown, but expectations were quickly revised as negotiations progressed.
Odaily News According to Onchain Lens monitoring, after selling some BTC, the Bitcoin whale (08b5...edb8) who has been holding for 11 years withdrew $53 million from Binance and repaid a loan.
Odaily News JPMorgan analysts believe that although investors are concerned that exchange rate fluctuations may impact the stock market, a weaker dollar should support stock markets rather than harm them.
JPMorgan pointed out that despite recent volatility in commodities, bonds, and crowded trades, the momentum of economic growth remains solid. Federal Reserve federal funds rate futures are currently pricing in approximately 55 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, providing a supportive backdrop for risk assets. JPMorgan holds a bearish view on the US dollar, with historical data showing that a weaker dollar is typically consistent with stronger stock market performance, especially in emerging markets.
JPMorgan maintains a positive outlook on emerging markets and commodity stocks and advises investors to buy metal assets on dips. In the European market, although a stronger euro may affect the translation of approximately 25% of US dollar-denominated revenue, strong growth during periods of euro appreciation usually offsets this adverse effect, and cyclical sectors typically rise alongside the euro.
Odaily News According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a Bitcoin OG (08b5...edb8e) who has held for 11 years deposited 5,000 BTC to Binance, worth $384 million.
Odaily News Vitalik Buterin posted on social platform X, stating that current prediction markets are overly concentrated on high-dopamine product forms such as short-term crypto price speculation and sports betting, lacking long-term social information value, which could lead to an unhealthy product-market fit. He suggested that prediction markets should be steered towards "risk hedging," making them tools to mitigate risks associated with assets or real-world expenditures. Buterin also envisioned building an alternative stablecoin mechanism through personalized prediction market shares based on price indices, thereby providing users with more sustainable value hedging solutions. He called for the construction of a new generation of financial systems, rather than merely relying on speculative flows.
Odaily News In response to user reports of account restrictions, Binance co-founder He Yi stated on the social platform X that the situation may be caused by using a VPN to connect to countries or regions where Binance cannot provide services. The system adjusts the account to "withdrawal-only mode," requiring contact with customer support for resolution. Previously, some users claimed to have experienced account restrictions or asset freezes on Binance and other exchanges. Binance emphasized that it is continuously increasing compliance investments and implementing risk control measures in accordance with regulatory requirements.
Odaily News Jake Paul announced on platform X that the venture capital fund Anti Fund, which he co-founded with Geoffrey Woo, now has assets under management exceeding $65 million. The fund has transitioned from its initial rolling fund structure to an institutionalized company and has successfully secured investment allocations in well-known projects such as OpenAI, Anduril, Polymarket, and Ramp.
Jake Paul stated that he is the first celebrity to sign a licensing agreement with OpenAI's text-to-video platform Sora, granting rights to his name, image, and likeness. Anti Fund partner Steve Han mentioned that the fund leverages its social media marketing and distribution capabilities to support tech startups. Previously, Jake Paul reached a settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for illegally promoting a crypto scheme. (fortune)
According to HyperInsight monitoring, the address of "Machi Big Brother" Huang Licheng added to its ETH long position 10 minutes ago. It is currently long 2,700 ETH with 25x leverage, with a floating profit of $150,000.
Odaily News Zhu Su posted on platform X, stating that cryptocurrency may significantly outperform the Magnificent Seven (Mag7) US tech stocks in the coming years, as it is the only vertical in Western technology that holds a moat against China.
Odaily News X product lead Nikita Bier posted on the X platform, stating that he hopes to popularize cryptocurrency on X, but not through incentivizing users to spam, maliciously attack, and harass, as this severely degrades the experience for millions of users just to enrich a few. Additionally, X will launch several features within weeks, including Smart Cashtags, which will support users in directly trading stocks and cryptocurrencies within the timeline.
Odaily News ARK Invest disclosed that it has resumed increasing its holdings of Coinbase stock, purchasing a total of approximately 93,000 shares valued at around $15.2 million. The purchases were executed through three ETFs: ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF. In the preceding days, ARK had collectively reduced its Coinbase holdings by over $39 million. Boosted by the market rebound, Coinbase's stock price rose approximately 16% to $164.32 on that day. Coinbase previously reported a net loss of $667 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, ending a streak of eight consecutive profitable quarters. (Cointelegraph)
According to the latest 13F filing submitted by Vanguard Group, the world's second-largest fund management company, to the U.S. SEC, it currently holds a cumulative total of 5,653,110 shares of Circle stock CRCL (currently valued at $339.4 million). The initial investment cost was $739.6 million, resulting in current floating losses exceeding $400 million.
Note: Institutional investment managers (those managing over $100 million in 13(f) securities) are required to file 13F reports within 45 days after the end of each quarter. The Q4 report (as of December 31) must be disclosed by around February 14 of the following year at the latest.
Odaily News X Product Lead Nikita Bier posted on the X platform, stating that regarding the "claim fees" spam, he considers it an extremely dishonest viewpoint. Nikita Bier pointed out that once a developer engages in such behavior, every subsequent response in their career will be plagued by demands to raise prices. Nikita Bier clearly stated that he intends to update the API policy to ban applications that create fee pools without user consent.
