Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the predict.fun "World Cup Group B Winner" prediction event, the probability of Canada winning Group B has dropped to 27%, a 4% decrease in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability of Bosnia and Herzegovina winning Group B is currently reported at 13%.
This morning, in the first round of Group B of the World Cup group stage, Canada drew 1:1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Canada previously participated in the 1986 and 2022 World Cups, losing all 6 group stage matches, scoring 2 goals and conceding 12.
Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.
Odaily Planet Daily News: According to sources familiar with the matter, attorneys general from multiple U.S. states have jointly launched an investigation into OpenAI. On Friday, OpenAI received a sweeping subpoena requesting a wide range of documents related to its operations and user impact, covering advertising business, user activity and retention, consumer and health data management, services targeting minors and the elderly, deep learning models, model sycophancy issues, and the company's internal policies and regulations.
An OpenAI spokesperson stated in a statement that AI is an emerging and powerful technology, and the company remains committed to allowing the public to safely benefit from technological advances in a compliant and responsible manner. The company values the concerns raised by the state attorneys general and will actively cooperate with relevant authorities in their work. This month, OpenAI has confidentially filed initial public offering documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Odaily reported that the U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against state officials, including Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and Attorney General Raúl Torrez, seeking to block the state from applying its gambling regulations to prediction market platforms.
Earlier, New Mexico had sued Kalshi, accusing it of offering unauthorized sports betting to state residents and allowing users under the state's legal gambling age of 21 to participate. The New Mexico Attorney General stated that legal gambling in the state can only be conducted under tribal-state gaming compacts or a strict state regulatory framework.
The CFTC argues that platforms like Kalshi offer federally regulated derivatives contracts, not gambling products under state law. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that New Mexico is attempting to impose state gambling laws on a federal derivatives exchange that falls under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC. Over the past few months, the CFTC has sued multiple states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, to assert its regulatory authority over sports prediction markets. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets, which generally still allow sports-related contracts to exist.
Odaily reported on the 12th that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that once the final phase of negotiations between Iran and the US is completed, the memorandum of understanding will be signed and announced immediately. The first phase will be signed remotely via electronic means, "which could happen in the coming days." (Jin Shi)
According to Reuters, a senior US official said on Friday that the United States and Iran have not yet truly crossed the finish line, but are very close to reaching an agreement to resolve the conflict between the two sides, and Washington expects to sign the agreement in the coming days. "The negotiating team has put us in a very favorable position, but we still have to wait and see. We haven't truly crossed the finish line yet, but we are very close," the US official said. The official stated that the agreed terms achieve Trump's core objectives. The terms of the memorandum of understanding include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports. Iran's high-enriched uranium will also be destroyed on-site and subsequently shipped out of the country. "Iran will not get anything just for signing the memorandum of understanding or for the negotiations themselves," the official said. "They will receive economic rewards for fulfilling the obligations stipulated in the agreement. Therefore, if they hand over nuclear materials as promised, they will get something. If they dismantle their nuclear program or nuclear facilities, they will get something else." (Jin Shi)
Odaily Planet Daily News According to a report by Reuters, sources say that amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran, and after weeks of Iranian attacks on the UAE, the UAE has agreed to unfreeze billions of dollars for Iran. The UAE has agreed to release a total of $10 billion in funds, of which over $3 billion has already been delivered. Another source stated that the total amount involved is $20 billion, and this move was agreed upon on the condition that Iran ceases its attacks on the UAE. The last direct attack by Iran on the UAE was on May 4. Sources say that this action by the UAE provides a way to help resolve the conflict between the US and Iran without pushing either side past its red lines: Iran can claim it secured compensation for war damages, Washington can insist it paid no money, and the UAE has protected its own security and maintained Dubai's status as a hub, all while packaging the move as an investment in rebuilding regional trust. In exchange, Iran will halt missile and drone strikes on the UAE, and both sides will work to rebuild bilateral relations, including intelligence sharing and economic cooperation. The source added that Iran has approached at least two other Gulf Arab states with similar arrangements.
Odaily Planet Daily News: According to Iranian media on the 12th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated during a TV program that evening that in the ongoing Iran-US memorandum of understanding negotiations, the US has promised not to wage war or use threats, with both sides respecting each other's sovereignty and not interfering in each other's internal affairs. (Jin Shi)
Odaily reported that SpaceX soared on its Nasdaq debut Friday, with its market capitalization surpassing $2 trillion. The listing went more smoothly than many observers had anticipated. Shares began trading late Friday morning and mostly fluctuated between 15% and 30% above Thursday's pricing throughout the session, without significant volatility. The stock closed at approximately $161, up 19%, placing the company as the sixth largest in the United States. The final settlement price is yet to be determined. Trading volume exceeded 500 million shares, with a turnover of around $80 billion. With major listing plans from Anthropic and OpenAI on the horizon, market observers had worried that a flood of new stocks could weigh on market performance following a prolonged IPO drought. However, investors ranging from large institutions to Elon Musk's retail fan base were in high spirits by the end of the day. "SpaceX not only broke records in terms of IPO fundraising size but also left other major companies far behind. When the initial valuation was already close to $2 trillion, adding so much market cap in an instant is impressive," said Dan Coatsworth, Head of Markets at AJ Bell. (Jinshi)
Odaily Planet Daily News: The U.S. CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico against Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Attorney General Raúl Torrez, and other officials, aiming to prevent the state from applying gambling regulations to prediction market platforms.
Previously, New Mexico sued Kalshi, accusing it of offering unauthorized sports betting to state residents and allowing users below the state's legal gambling age of 21 to participate. The New Mexico Attorney General stated that legal gambling in the state can only operate under tribal-state gaming compacts or a strict state regulatory framework.
The CFTC argues that platforms like Kalshi offer federally regulated derivative contracts, not gambling products under state law. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that New Mexico is attempting to impose state gambling laws on a federal derivatives exchange that falls under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction.
Over the past few months, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against several states, including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, to establish its regulatory authority over sports prediction markets. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets that still generally permit sports-related contracts, indicating an escalating conflict between federal and state governments over the boundaries of prediction markets and sports betting.
Odaily Former SEC Chair and former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler, in an amicus brief filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, stated that the Dodd-Frank Act does not grant the CFTC the authority to regulate sports betting.
This position directly contradicts the claims of current CFTC Chair Michael Selig and prediction market platform Kalshi, who argue that contracts related to sports events fall under federal regulatory scope rather than state gambling oversight.
Gensler pointed out that if the Dodd-Frank Act truly preempted state authority over sports betting, it would have been major news at the time, yet no one understood it that way. He served as CFTC Chair from 2009 to 2014 and was responsible for implementing rules under the Dodd-Frank Act.
The amicus brief pertains to litigation between Kalshi and the state of Ohio. The Ohio gambling regulator had demanded Kalshi cease offering sports-related event contracts to state residents, leading Kalshi to sue the state. However, a request for a preliminary injunction was denied by the court. The CFTC supports Kalshi, arguing that Ohio has overstepped its authority.
Over the past year, the CFTC has continuously sought to expand its regulatory reach over prediction markets, having sued several states to establish its jurisdiction. This week, the agency also proposed broader rules for prediction markets, generally supporting sports-related contracts while aiming to impose stricter restrictions on betting concerning events such as terrorist attacks, assassinations, and wars.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that renowned startup accelerator Y Combinator stated that in the future, all of its portfolio companies may utilize crypto technology, particularly infrastructure like stablecoins, and this will not be limited to crypto or fintech startups.
YC has previously invested in early-stage companies such as Airbnb, DoorDash, Coinbase, Stripe, Reddit, OpenAI, and Kalshi. Its latest statement primarily urges the U.S. Congress to pass the crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act."
YC believes that for the crypto industry to enter a new phase, it must achieve deeper integration with traditional financial institutions such as banks and brokerages. The Clarity Act is expected to provide the regulatory foundation for this integration. The bill aims to clarify whether digital assets are securities or commodities, establish a registration pathway with the CFTC, and stipulate that customer assets belong to the customers in the event of bankruptcy.
However, the prospects for the bill remain uncertain. Supporters argue that it has a bipartisan foundation, while opponents point out limited support from Democrats, the approaching midterm elections, and ethical controversies arising from Trump's direct association with the crypto industry. These factors could all increase legislative resistance.
Odaily Planet Daily News: A senior U.S. government official stated that Iran has indicated it “can accept the relevant wording of the agreement.” The date and location for signing the agreement have not yet been finalized. I believe we are close to determining both the signing date and location. (Jin10)
Odaily News: According to Axios reporter, Trump stated that he still believes a deal with Iran could be signed by the end of this weekend or next Monday.
Odaily reports that MSX data shows SPCX has continued to rise since its opening, breaking through $170 and currently trading at $171.
Odaily Planet Daily News: According to the Wall Street Journal, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) are expected to earn approximately $100 million each in underwriting fees from SpaceX's initial public offering.
Odaily reported that Bybit Spot has officially listed xStocks tokenized stock SPCXX on June 13 (UTC+8). The platform simultaneously launched a 200,000 USDT Token Splash trading competition, where users can participate through deposits, trading, and other activities to win substantial rewards.
