A reflationary environment is taking shape. If the Fed holds steady in September, risk assets may enter a new upward window in Q4.

Everyone is focused on whether the new phone is worth upgrading to, while the capital markets have long since begun calculating the restructuring of supply chain orders worth tens of billions of dollars.

The Bank of Japan next door is also poised to act, with market pricing implying about a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% next week. From Frankfurt to Washington to Tokyo, the world's major central banks have rarely stood in the same tightening direction. All eyes are now fixed on tonight's US CPI release.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium on August 28 took a notably hawkish turn, suggesting that persistently elevated inflation may require a rate hike in response. The market broadly interpreted this as a significant increase in the probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.

The "BIT Trust Whitepaper" V2.0 is released: From 24-hour dynamic risk control to US stock asset pathways, beyond "security," what else can users verify?

Apple supply chain concept stocks rose broadly across the board. Beyond the anticipated new product features at tomorrow's launch event, what other updates deserve attention?

True institutionalization is not a market cycle, but a long-term endeavor.

NVIDIA's latest acquisition is reshaping memory capacity allocation, and the AI capex boom is spreading from individual company earnings to core U.S. index weights. With the opening bell approaching, what news in the AI, chip, and cybersecurity tracks deserves attention?

If authorities intervene in the market again after September 18, watch the speed at which the move retraces—should the yen quickly fall back to its pre-intervention range within days or weeks, it would suggest that policy signals alone remain insufficient to overturn fundamental pricing, and the yen will likely continue spinning in the cycle of "intervention, rebound, and give-back."

September's seasonal pressure coincides with elevated valuations, but with inflation and debt continuing to expand, US equities still lack more attractive alternative assets.

The nature of this round of rebound is closer to a phased repair of expectations. The Fed has not released any signals about starting a rate-cutting cycle, and the overall monetary policy stance remains tight. Before the August CPI data is released, there is still considerable uncertainty in the direction of overseas markets, with implied volatility at relatively high levels. The risks of short-term volatility and pullbacks should not be underestimated.

If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and oil prices continue to climb, inflation expectations could shift to a higher plateau, driving long-end yields and rate hike expectations higher in tandem. What may demand the most caution then is not just a one-way decline in equities, but a stagflationary drawdown involving simultaneous losses in both stocks and bonds.

The "Small Non-Farm" slightly pressed down the September rate hike probability from its highs, but the 62.3% figure means the market is still pricing in a better-than-even chance that a hike will come. If Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls far exceeds the expected 55,000, the just-repaired sentiment could easily reverse once again.

SpaceX's current valuation already factors in high-growth expectations across multiple business lines, including Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure, and orbital computing. As share supply increases, the "scarcity premium" will be gradually diluted. Going forward, whether the stock can continue to rise will no longer depend on "can't buy it," but rather on the pace of fundamental delivery, and whether institutional capital can keep absorbing the new supply of shares.

OpenAI snapping up Mac minis and Nvidia naming Apple its top local AI rival are clear signals that Apple has always held a ticket to the AI era.