DeFi借貸走向模塊化，Morpho、Euler和Aave的風險管理之戰。

AI application revenue is not the same as traditional SaaS. A company's valuation depends on cost reduction and gross margin improvement.

SpaceX's IPO at a $1.8 trillion valuation and a 100x price-to-sales ratio is, in his view, a liquidity time bomb waiting to explode.

以監管趨勢與資本流向來判斷。未來可能出現的組合，方向上是：代幣化國債作為無風險腿的底座 + 由 CME 基差 / Bitfinex 期限結構 / 鏈上利率交換拼出的期限曲線——或者，一條治理中立的聚合指數。

半導體投資重心需要轉向CPU+GPU敘事。

資產會漲，但不代表你一定會變富

The World Cup provides the most natural mass-market scenario, and wallets may evolve from being just an entry point for assets to becoming a gateway for event participation.

結果取決於代幣化浪潮的流動性最終流向何處。

In 2026, top-tier private tech companies represented by SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are successively advancing their IPO plans. Among them, SpaceX's target valuation is as high as $1.75 trillion, with plans to raise $75 billion, potentially becoming the largest IPO in history. The massive capital absorption effect of these giant IPOs could pose a potential short-term liquidity shock to the crypto market.

South Korea's investor-protection-focused regulatory measures are now, instead, pushing crypto exchanges into the riskiest corners of the market.

市場關注重心並非簡單的利率調整，而是三大核心主線：點陣圖變數與年內利率路徑、聯準會政策獨立性爭議、沃什主推的央行溝通體系全面改革。

This FOMC meeting is highly likely to keep rates unchanged, and the real focus is on how Wash will change the Fed's pricing mechanism.

Focus: Five Nasdaq AI Leading Stocks AI infrastructure remains a direction I am willing to buy on dips to research, but the entry point must adhere to position discipline. In a phase characterized by high returns, high drawdowns, and high volatility, first stratify, then make a move. Core Thesis: Investing in AI infrastructure is not a bet on a single track, but a capital expenditure chain covering multiple nodes such as computing power, storage, connectivity, optics, and power. In the current phase, the five targets including MU and AMD should be managed through stratification, deploying capital in batches during pullbacks based on fundamental evidence chains and position discipline, rather than blindly chasing highs. Key Elements: MU (Micron), AMD (Advanced Micro Devices), LITE (Lumentum), VICR (Vicor), and MXL (MaxLinear) collectively benefit from AI data center capital expenditures, but their risk sources, earnings elasticity, and valuation digestion methods differ and require differentiated treatment. McKinsey estimates that global AI data center capital expenditures could reach as high as $5.2 trillion by 2030, indicating AI infrastructure is a long investment cycle. However, one must be wary of short-term bubbles caused by earnings, valuation, and interest rate risks. Over the past year, these five stocks have significantly outperformed the Nasdaq 100 and semiconductor ETFs, but their maximum drawdowns have generally ranged between -28% and -32%, far exceeding the index's -12.1%. High returns come with high volatility. Due to more complete fundamental evidence chains (e.g., HBM demand, data center revenue growth), MU and AMD are regarded as "core trackable" assets; LITE and VICR are high-beta satellite positions; MXL is a small-to-mid-cap opportunity requiring observation. A true buy point must simultaneously satisfy three conditions: price has released short-term sentiment, the company's fundamentals have not deteriorated, and the portfolio has available cash and risk budget. Avoid treating every pullback as a buying opportunity.

Is SpaceX Worth Betting On? Can HYPE Still Be Chased?

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沃什主持的这场首秀或将发出一个信号——美联储的下一步，可能是加息。