The World Cup is coming, and the battle for entry into the prediction market has begun

In the early hours of June 12, the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico officially kicked off.

As the world's most-watched sporting event, the World Cup is not just a direct competition between players on the pitch. Who will lift the trophy? Which team will be the biggest dark horse? Who will take home the Golden Boot? Months before the tournament began, hundreds of millions of fans have been actively discussing and predicting various outcomes on social media.

Unlike previous editions, this year fans have more options than just debating online or participating in traditional betting (which is often subject to strict regional legal restrictions). A novel on-chain probability perception tool originating from the crypto world – prediction markets – is becoming the biggest off-field highlight of this World Cup.

The appeal of prediction markets lies in converting collective wisdom into winning probabilities backed by real money. In recent years, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have repeatedly broken into the mainstream during global macro events, geopolitical conflicts, and financial market trends. Their incredibly high sensitivity to information has led many mainstream media outlets to regard them as "a more accurate barometer than traditional polls."

However, prediction markets have long felt like an exclusive domain for native crypto users. For an average fan drawn in by the World Cup, participating often involves navigating a steep and intimidating learning curve – wallets, seed phrases, on-chain transactions, gas fees, smart contracts, approvals, trading... These concepts, second nature to crypto insiders, objectively create a barrier to entry for a massive number of new users, potentially turning away ninety percent of interested participants.

In other words, while prediction markets have proven their product and value, they have been stuck at the "last mile" towards mass adoption, hindered by the cumbersome experience of the underlying infrastructure.

Analyzing the Role of CEX Channels: The Case of Gate

To address this industry pain point, major centralized exchanges (CEXs) like Gate are attempting to break down the complex barriers for new users by integrating (or building) prediction market products and redesigning the user experience.

Gate is a prime example. As the first CEX to directly integrate with Polymarket, Gate and Polymarket have established a classic partnership paradigm – Polymarket acts as the backend, providing available events, matching engines, and settlement capabilities; Gate acts as the frontend channel, offering an on-chain trading entry point and account system. Users can complete all trading operations directly using their Gate account and USDT. As of June 16, 2026, Gate's prediction market product has accumulated a trading volume exceeding $251 million, with a single-day peak reaching nearly $69 million, ranking first in nominal trading volume among over 300 channels partnered with Polymarket.

For ordinary users, the most direct manifestation of this channel value is the lowering of participation barriers and the optimization of the interactive experience.

Within Gate's product system, users no longer need to worry about creating wallets, bridging assets, paying gas fees, or performing on-chain approvals. They simply log in to their account and use USDT to directly participate in prediction market trading. The entire process feels essentially no different from spot or futures trading. At the same time, for experienced users accustomed to on-chain operations, Gate also retains Web3 wallet connectivity, offering greater flexibility between convenience and a native crypto experience.

Specifically, in terms of the trading experience, Gate provides two distinct user interfaces: "Prediction Mode" and "Trading Mode."

• Prediction Mode is more suitable for ordinary users. In this mode, users only need to select "Yes" or "No," enter the stake amount, and confirm the transaction. The system displays the corresponding probability and potential profit, compressing the entire operation into a simple three-step process.
• Experienced traders can opt for Trading Mode. This mode offers more professional market tools, including order books, candlestick charts, and depth data. Here, the prediction market is not just about betting on final outcomes but becomes a market for real-time pricing and trading based on changing probabilities.

In terms of trading flexibility, Gate allows users to engage in "two-way trading" at any time. Users can buy or sell their positions before the final settlement based on changing market expectations, without needing to hold until the result is announced. As match progress, macro events, or market sentiment shifts, the corresponding contract prices fluctuate accordingly. This flexibility creates more dynamic trading opportunities for participants.

Regarding the scope of trading, Gate's prediction market now covers various hot areas including sports events, cryptocurrencies, macroeconomics, and traditional financial markets. Whether predicting the World Cup winner, Bitcoin's price trajectory, or the direction of global hot topics, users can find relevant prediction markets to participate in.

However, this alone is still insufficient to support the widespread adoption of prediction markets. From a product design perspective, Gate aims to transform the prediction market from a relatively niche on-chain tool into a comprehensive information discovery and trading system.

For most users, another practical challenge in participating in prediction markets is that – even with significantly lowered operational barriers – it's still difficult to answer the core question: "What should I buy?" After all, a prediction market is essentially a game of information and cognition. Compared to the trading operation itself, the ability to obtain timely information, understand shifts in market sentiment, and identify potential opportunities is often the decisive factor for the final outcome.

Addressing this need, Gate has built a relatively complete information support system alongside its trading functions.

• Smart Money Leaderboard: Quickly identify "smart money" and active traders in the market, and view their historical profit performance, holdings, and transaction trajectories. For inexperienced new users, this transparent mechanism for displaying on-chain behavior lowers the cost of information acquisition and provides more reference points for market observation.
• Market Dynamics Monitoring: Users can track specific wallet addresses or points of interest. When new trading activity occurs in tracked accounts, the system automatically sends push notifications. For users wanting to follow whale movements or learn from experienced traders' strategies, this tool effectively improves market monitoring efficiency.
• Live Zone and Real-time Updates: Aggregates real-time progress of hot events, market dynamics, and live trading data, helping users quickly understand the most talked-about topics.
• AI Insights: Integrates various viewpoints and latest developments around hot market events, helping users quickly grasp the logic behind events and improve trading decision efficiency, offering more angles for judgment.

From discovering hot topics and tracking market sentiment, to observing smart money movements, analyzing with AI and capital flow, and finally making trading decisions, Gate is attempting to build more than just a simple Polymarket channel; it aims to be a complete participation loop covering information acquisition, opinion formation, and trade execution.

The World Cup is Here: From Watching to Participating

If the value of prediction markets lies in converting collective judgment into market probabilities, then the World Cup is undoubtedly one of their most ideal application scenarios.

Compared to macroeconomic events, football matches feature more frequent information changes, a broader participant base, and stronger emotional swings. From pre-match squad announcements and injury news, to every goal, yellow/red card, and tactical adjustment during the game, all can rapidly alter market expectations for the outcome, directly reflected in the price changes of the corresponding prediction markets.

Specifically for the World Cup, a top-tier global sports IP, Gate recently launched a World Cup-themed zone, aggregating match schedules, standings, popular prediction markets, and event dynamics in one place.

For fans, there's no need to switch between different pages. They can quickly browse matches, obtain information, and participate in predictions all within Gate. The zone also features a match calendar and kick-off reminders, allowing users to follow interesting games in advance and receive notifications before they start, ensuring they don't miss key matches and related prediction opportunities. During matches, the Live real-time feed further strengthens the integration between the prediction market and the viewing experience. Match progress, hot events, and market trading updates are synchronized, allowing users to follow the on-field score while observing the market's real-time pricing of the game's trajectory.

From a practical experience standpoint, the entire World Cup participation process has been deliberately simplified by Gate. After entering the relevant event page, users simply choose to support or oppose an outcome, enter the stake amount, and confirm the transaction. As the match progresses, users can either hold their position until the final result or buy/sell their shares early based on market price changes.

From this perspective, prediction markets are changing the World Cup viewing experience. For participants, they are not just trading on the match result itself, but also trading their judgment on the game's flow and the process by which market consensus adjusts as information changes.

The Next Step for Prediction Markets: From Crypto Circles to the Mass Market

Looking back at the development in recent years, prediction markets have actually completed the most difficult step – proving the effectiveness and market value of the product.

Whether it was the US election, macroeconomic events, or global sporting spectacles like the World Cup, a growing number of cases demonstrate that when enough people put real money on the line to express their views on the same event, the market can often reflect changes in collective expectations faster than traditional surveys, expert predictions, or even some media reports.

However, prediction markets still have a considerable distance to go before achieving true mass adoption.

For a long time, crypto-native infrastructure like wallets, gas fees, and on-chain interactions, while forming the foundational framework for prediction markets, has also inadvertently limited their user base. For the vast majority of ordinary people, they might be willing to express their judgment on a World Cup match, a rate decision, or a hot market topic, but they are less willing to learn a complex set of on-chain operational procedures to do so.

This suggests that the next phase of competition for prediction markets might not be about who can build a more effective product, but who can bring more users into the market.

From this perspective, centralized exchanges, social platforms, and even more internet products could become crucial future gateways for prediction markets. Those who can package the complex underlying mechanisms, reaching ordinary users with lower learning costs and smoother product experiences, will have a better chance of pushing prediction markets from a crypto-native application to the mass market.

This is precisely the path Gate is attempting. By replacing the wallet barrier with its account system, substituting complex on-chain interactions with familiar trading experiences, and building a comprehensive product system around information discovery, opinion exchange, and trading decisions, prediction markets are gradually evolving from a specialized tool for a few on-chain players into a new type of market that more ordinary users can understand, participate in, and benefit from.

When prediction markets are no longer an on-chain experiment for the few, but an open market where anyone can participate to express opinions, discover consensus, and trade on judgments, their true growth story may just be beginning.

Disclaimer: This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or advice. You should always seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that Gate may restrict or prohibit all or part of its services from users in restricted regions. Please read the User Agreement for more information.