如果CLARITY法案最終沒有通過會怎樣？

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜jk

The "Digital Asset Market Structure Act," also known as the CLARITY Act, has been stalled in the Senate for over a year since passing the House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, with a vote of 294 to 134. The Senate Banking Committee voted 15 to 9 on May 14, 2026, to advance the bill to the legislative calendar, but as of now, it has not received a full Senate vote or been signed by the President.

So, what's the hold-up? Odaily Planet Daily has provided a detailed analysis on this matter. Interested readers can refer to "So Close Yet So Far: What's Blocking the CLARITY Act?"

The core of this bill is to classify and define crypto assets: Clearly determine whether tokens are securities or commodities, thereby delineating the regulatory authority of the SEC and the CFTC. It also covers regulations for user self-custody of private keys, stablecoin yield mechanisms, and registration of foreign exchanges. The main controversy currently hindering a Senate vote revolves around the ethical review clause concerning conflicts of interest related to senior government officials' crypto asset holdings.

On July 27, Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that the Senate will prioritize the Russia sanctions bill and personnel appointments in the near term, potentially delaying the voting window for the CLARITY Act until September. Industry and congressional negotiators had generally viewed August 7 as the last realistic window for the bill to pass in 2026. If this window is missed, most analysts believe the likelihood of the bill being enacted this year will significantly diminish.

Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law within the year is only 35%, compared to 82% in February.

The probability of Clarity passing within the year has been consistently declining. Source: Polymarket

So, if the Clarity Act ultimately fails to pass, how will the crypto market react? What will happen to Bitcoin? How will related US stock market targets be affected? And what political shifts might occur in Washington? Odaily Planet Daily will examine these three aspects to explore the potential scenarios the industry might face if the CLARITY Act fails to pass the Senate.

1. Crypto Market: Analysts Generally Believe the Impact is Limited and the Market Has Already Priced It In

Based on current price action, the market's pessimism towards the CLARITY Act is already being gradually reflected. The most obvious sign is the drop in probability on Polymarket from 82% to the current 35%. Looking at the trend, this probability rose above 70% multiple times between February and May but began a steady decline in June, indicating a clear weakening of confidence. Cumulative trading volume has now reached $2.845 million.

Bitcoin's price has been under pressure recently, fluctuating back to the $65,000 to $66,000 range in late July. Market interpretations generally attribute this to macro liquidity factors rather than the bill itself.

On the institutional side, most analysts are skeptical of the view that the bill's failure equates to an industry crisis. Ed Engel, an analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading, maintains a sell rating on Coinbase but also notes that even if the CLARITY Act fails, there are still enough industry events in the second half of the year to sustain market attention. The blockchain industry still has the opportunity to prove its practical application value over the next two to three years.

It's important to note that the specific provisions of the bill themselves are highly controversial, and their impact on different sub-sectors varies significantly. Take the stablecoin yield clause as an example. A draft of the CLARITY Act in March proposed prohibiting any stablecoin holding yield arrangements "substantially equivalent to interest." This news caused Circle's stock to plummet 20% in a single day, with Coinbase shares also falling nearly 10% on the same day. In other words, the market impact of the bill's failure largely depends on the final details of its clauses, rather than the mere passage or failure of the bill itself.

2. US Stock Market: Will Coinbase and Circle Crash?

Coinbase

Coinbase's performance over the past week. Source: Google

Coinbase's stock price has recently come under pressure as the probability of the bill's passage declined. On July 28, COIN closed at $165, down 3.8% over the past five days, with the decline attributed to selling pressure from the bill's weakening prospects. Earlier in the week of July 24, COIN fell from its $169 quote level. Raymond James set a price target of $158, about 6.5% below the then-current price. Oppenheimer previously lowered its price target to $209. Baird lowered its target from $160 to $142, maintaining a neutral rating.

In other words, institutions believe that if CLARITY fails to pass, we will likely see Coinbase trading in the $140-$160 range.

However, most analysts do not directly link Coinbase's long-term investment thesis to the success or failure of the CLARITY Act. Analysis cited by TipRanks suggests that even if the bill fails to pass before August, the trend of Wall Street's institutional allocation to crypto assets will continue to support Coinbase's long-term growth. Coinbase is set to release its second-quarter earnings on July 30, with the market expecting earnings per share of $0.19, a significant improvement from the first quarter's loss of $1.49 per share. Long-term, if CLARITY fails, sustained growth could still offset this setback.

Circle

Circle's performance over the past week. Source: Google

Circle's situation is more complex. Some analysts believe that the failure of the bill might not necessarily be a bad thing for Circle. Mizuho Securities analysts point out that if the CLARITY Act passes smoothly, bringing a clearer regulatory framework, it might attract more competitors into the stablecoin space, accelerating homogeneous competition and potentially reducing Circle's revenue in the long term. This year, the stablecoin field has seen the launch of the Open USD project, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and BlackRock, posing direct competition to Circle's USDC. Mizuho had previously downgraded Circle's rating due to this project.

On the other hand, if the clause in the CLARITY Act limiting stablecoin yields is ultimately enacted, it would weaken the high-margin revenue Coinbase generates through the USDC distribution agreement. This could tilt bargaining power towards Circle during the renegotiation of their commercial agreement scheduled for August 2026. Morgan Stanley analyst Thielen believes that a stricter federal regulatory framework generally benefits licensed issuers with compliance capabilities, asset scale, and credit backing, making Circle a relative beneficiary in this landscape. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argues that the sell-off in Circle's stock triggered by the draft bill was "over-interpreted" and that the bill itself does not change Circle's long-term investment thesis.

In other words, if CLARITY truly fails to pass, it might be beneficial for Circle's long-term price. If sentiment continues to weaken in the short term, several repeatedly mentioned support levels are around $61.70. In a more extreme scenario, some in the market have mentioned a potential fall back to the February low of $49.

Crypto Treasury Companies

For crypto treasury companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker MSTR), their stock price is far more correlated with Bitcoin's price movements than directly with the CLARITY Act itself. They can be viewed as leveraged plays on Bitcoin.

As of July 1, impacted by Bitcoin's price falling below $59,000, MSTR's stock price slid to the $85-$86 range, marking its eleventh consecutive monthly decline and an approximately 84% drawdown from its all-time high of around $540 in November 2024. Citi analysts link their base case prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 to the expectation of the CLARITY Act passing. They believe that if the bill is successfully enacted, pushing Bitcoin to $100,000, the value of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings would correspondingly rise to approximately $84 billion.

Strategy recently disclosed that its model's lower bound for annualized Bitcoin return is -11.34%. If actual returns fall below this level, the company might need to consider restructuring its debt. Notably, two publicly listed companies have already sold a combined total of 511 Bitcoins within 24 hours to repay approximately $31.7 million in debt. This financial pressure is somewhat independent of the CLARITY Act's legislative progress but could be amplified in an environment where the bill's fate is uncertain and market sentiment is weak. Strategy is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings report during the week of July 30-31. The market expects its stock price to experience increased volatility during this period.

3. Washington Political Landscape: Future Legislation Will Be Much Harder

Looking at the Senate's voting structure, whether the bill can pass depends on securing support from 7 to 9 Democratic Senators to breach the 60-vote threshold. On the Republican side, Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul are expected to vote against it based on substantive positions, meaning that even with all 53 Republican Senators present, they would still be insufficient to push the bill through alone. On the Democratic side, Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona is considered a relatively reliable source of support.

It's worth noting that the Democratic resistance to the bill isn't purely about the crypto regulatory framework itself. It is largely connected to President Trump and his family's disclosure of over $1 billion in crypto asset-related investments. Several Democratic Senators view the ethics clause as a check against potential presidential conflicts of interest. Senator Angela Alsobrooks previously described a compromise proposal put forward by the White House as a "not serious proposal." This has, to some extent, tied the legislative process of the CLARITY Act to the broader goal of opposing Trump, rather than being a purely technical debate over industry regulation.

If the bill ultimately fails to pass in 2026, most analysts believe this will not create a regulatory vacuum. Instead, it means the crypto industry will continue to rely on two existing paths in the short term: first, the GENIUS Act, which took effect in July 2025, specifically regulating payment stablecoins and their issuers; and second, the separate regulatory agendas of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), with the SEC's Regulation Crypto proposal expected to formally enter the rulemaking process in the second half of 2026.

From a timing perspective, the November 2026 midterm elections are a key variable affecting the bill's subsequent progress. Most analysts believe that once the window before the August recess is missed, the likelihood of resuming deliberation in the fall will be significantly compressed due to appropriation bill disputes and the approaching election cycle. Substantive progress will likely have to wait until 2027, which itself is a period of political realignment post-midterms. The opportunity to replicate the previous bipartisan consensus on the bill will be significantly reduced. Some industry lobbyists have proposed an alternative path: incorporating the core provisions of the CLARITY Act into must-pass omnibus legislation at the end of the year. However, as yet, no Senator has publicly confirmed that this strategy is being seriously considered.