24H热门币种与要闻｜美联储维持利率不变；韩国承诺采取更多措施以稳定股市（7月30日）
- Quan điểm chính: Fed giữ nguyên lãi suất nhưng áp lực tăng lãi suất nội bộ gia tăng, Hàn Quốc tăng cường giám sát thị trường chứng khoán, các ông lớn công nghệ (Microsoft, Meta) báo cáo tài chính cho thấy tăng trưởng mảng AI và áp lực chi phí, các nền tảng như Binance, Robinhood tích cực mở rộng mảng tiền mã hóa và thị trường dự đoán, tổng vốn huy động trong mảng tiền mã hóa quý II đạt 12,86 tỷ USD.
- Các yếu tố chính:
- Fed giữ nguyên lãi suất cơ bản ở mức 3,50%-3,75%, đây là cuộc họp thứ năm liên tiếp không thay đổi, nhưng có ba thành viên bỏ phiếu phản đối và chủ trương tăng lãi suất, lần đầu tiên kể từ năm 2016.
- Bộ Tài chính Hàn Quốc sẽ thực hiện các biện pháp như hạn chế giao dịch ETF đòn bẩy để ổn định thị trường chứng khoán, JP Morgan cho biết quá trình thanh lý ETF đòn bẩy cổ phiếu Hàn Quốc đã hoàn tất.
- Doanh thu quý 4 của Microsoft đạt 90 tỷ USD, vượt kỳ vọng, tốc độ tăng trưởng doanh thu Azure Cloud đạt 43% và doanh thu hàng năm lần đầu tiên vượt 1000 tỷ USD.
- Doanh thu quý 2 của Meta đạt kỷ lục nhưng lợi nhuận ròng thấp hơn dự kiến, do lo ngại chi phí AI, giá cổ phiếu giảm hơn 6% sau giờ giao dịch, giới hạn dưới của hướng dẫn chi tiêu vốn hàng năm được điều chỉnh tăng.
- Tổng vốn huy động và M&A trong mảng tiền mã hóa quý 2 năm 2026 đạt 12,86 tỷ USD, tăng khoảng 45% so với quý trước, trong đó vốn vay đạt 4,36 tỷ USD, trở thành nguồn lớn thứ hai.
- Bernstein hạ mục tiêu giá của Circle từ 190 USD xuống 140 USD, nhưng dự báo tổng nguồn cung stablecoin sẽ đạt 4.000 tỷ USD vào năm 2035, Circle chiếm khoảng 30% thị phần.
- Tổng tài sản quản lý của Binance bStocks vượt 590 triệu USD, vượt xStocks trở thành sản phẩm có quy mô lớn nhất trong mảng tài sản cổ phiếu trên chuỗi.
1. CEX Hot Tokens
CEX Top 10 by Trading Volume & 24h Change:
- BTC: +0.69%
- ETH: +0.14%
- SOL: +0.67%
- SNDKB: -3.16%
- XRP: -0.2%
- VANA: -14.47%
- BANK: +10.00%
- SKHYB: +2.16%
- XRP: -0.4%
- VANA: -14.6%
24h Gainers List (Data Source: OKX):
- ACH: +19.51%
- ASP: +18.9%
- RE: +14.6%
- AEON: +10.15%
- SENT: +6.98%
- xMSFT: +6.61%
- FLOW: +6.48%
- PROS: +6.32%
- SSV: +5.67%
- AGLD: +5.27%
24h Crypto-Stock Gainers List (Data Source: msx.com):
- EDU: 15.18%
- SOXS: 14.55%
- CONI: 9.25%
- SNOW: 9.11%
- BWET: 8.38%
- MSFT: 8.05%
- MDB: 7.53%
- TSLQ: 7.59%
- NVDQ: 6.9%
- INTU: 6.73%
2. Trending On-Chain Memes (Data Source: GMGN):
- Solana: Fauci, Jimothy
- BSC: HEYI, MarsCoin
- Robinhood: CASHCAT, MarketCat
Headlines
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady
Odaily News: The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change. (Jin Shi)
Three Dissenting Votes Emerge, Pressure for Fed Rate Hikes Intensifies
Odaily News: In this rate decision, three of the five regional Fed bank presidents who are voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee cast dissenting votes: Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan. All three favored a 25 basis point rate hike. This marks the first time since September 2016 that the Fed has seen three unanimous dissenting votes in the same policy decision, reflecting growing internal pressure for tighter policy.
Fed Chair John C. Williams, who supported maintaining rates, has consistently emphasized the Fed's responsibility to curb inflation. He is expected to be asked during the press conference at 2:30 AM Beijing time why he believes continued patience remains the most appropriate policy choice at this time. (Jin Shi)
Odaily News: South Korea's Finance Ministry stated that the country commits to additional measures to stabilize the stock market. It will take steps to limit leveraged ETF trading, restrict retail investors' exposure to leveraged ETF investments, and maintain a 24-hour stock market monitoring system. (Jin Shi)
JP Morgan: Liquidation of Korean Stock Leveraged ETFs Completed, Hedge Funds 90% Deleveraged
Odaily News: A JP Morgan report indicated that the liquidation process for Korean stock leveraged ETFs has been completed, and hedge funds have achieved 90% deleveraging. Although there may be aftershocks in the coming days, the market is now overall attractive for investment.
Dan Bin: Must Be Brave to Buy During Big Drops, Just Fired the Last Bullets
Odaily News: Today, Dan Bin stated on Xueqiu, "Must be brave to buy during big drops, just fired the last bullets." Earlier, he posted, "The 2x Long SK Hynix ETF is down 25.72% today. Leveraged tools can amplify gains but also multiply risks. When the tide goes out, you see the cruelty of market volatility. This shows that such leveraged products require extreme caution."
Dan Bin believes SK Hynix has become one of the landmark companies in this AI cycle phase. Given the current pace of adjustment, the short-term direction is likely to become clear soon. Of course, over the long term, only companies with continuously optimized supply-demand dynamics and steadily improving profitability can navigate through multiple cycles.
Industry News
South Korean Politicians Criticize Government Over 2x Leveraged ETFs
Odaily News: Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X, stating that during a hearing, South Korean People Power Party lawmaker Lee Jongwook told Koo, "This country has turned into a casino. These products should never have been allowed into the market. I consider this a policy failure."
Balchunas said that while South Korean politicians are leveraging the 2x leveraged ETF issue to criticize the government, the bubble and correction were driven by the AI boom generating massive interest in memory chip manufacturers; the 2x leveraged ETF is merely a tool for gaining exposure. He also noted that South Korea might not be the best market for 2x single-stock ETFs, as insufficient liquidity in the underlying stocks makes derivatives more likely to negatively impact the underlying assets.
Samsung Electronics Q2 Chip Profit Beats Estimates, Says Strong AI Server Chip Demand in H2
Odaily News: Samsung Electronics reported a Q2 net profit of KRW 71.3 trillion, beating the market estimate of KRW 68.5 trillion. Its chip division posted an operating profit of KRW 89.2 trillion.
Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit was KRW 89.4 trillion, in line with preliminary estimates, and revenue was KRW 171 trillion, also meeting expectations.
Samsung said it expects strong demand for server chips in the second half of the year, with chip supply shortages expected to persist. It added that the memory business is expected to benefit from continued AI infrastructure capital expenditure and broader demand for autonomous AI applications.
The company noted that demand for mobile and PC chips is expected to slow, introducing uncertainty for the memory business in H2. Additionally, Samsung plans to increase its smartphone market share in the second half. Its foundry business is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth this year. (Jin Shi)
Microsoft Q4 Revenue $90B Beats Estimates, Azure Cloud Revenue Tops $100B for First Time
Odaily News: Microsoft (MSFT.O) reported strong growth in its cloud business and an increase in paid AI users, with investors closely watching whether the tech giant's spending on data centers will pay off. Microsoft's Q4 earnings per share were $4.81, up from $3.65 a year ago and above the Wall Street estimate of $4.24. Revenue reached $90 billion for the quarter, surpassing the expected $87.6 billion and up 18% year-over-year. Azure remains one of the most closely watched metrics, seen as a bellwether for overall AI demand. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said, "Azure's revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot has over 30 million paid seats. This reflects customer trust in our ability to power their AI transformation." Microsoft's Azure cloud business generated $39.3 billion in Q4 revenue, growing at 43%, exceeding the expected 40% growth. Microsoft shares rose 4% in after-hours trading. Microsoft stock has fallen about 18% year-to-date. (Jin Shi)
Meta Posts Record Revenue, But AI Costs Drag Down Stock
Odaily News: Meta Platforms (META.O) reported record Q2 revenue, but an update on its AI spending plans raised investor concerns about infrastructure construction costs. Meta slightly raised the lower end of its annual capital expenditure guidance from $125 billion to $130 billion, keeping the upper end at $145 billion unchanged. Its Q2 revenue was $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, but net income was $15.8 billion, below analyst estimates. Consequently, Meta shares fell over 6% in after-hours trading. To keep pace in the AI race, Meta has invested tens of billions of dollars in chip procurement, data center construction, and top talent recruitment. Recently, it partnered with BlackRock to raise at least $12 billion for a data center in Texas. Meta's Q2 free cash flow was $784 million. (Jin Shi)
CME Plans to Launch Futures Linked to Sports Events as New Hedging Tool
Odaily News: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is planning to launch futures and options contracts linked to professional and college sports events. The exchange is partnering with emerging index provider FutureSports, whose products will provide the underlying support for these new CME instruments. The statement noted that the first series of sports futures contracts will be cash-settled, available on a monthly and quarterly expiration cycle, and could begin trading as early as this summer, pending regulatory approval.
CME CEO Terry Duffy said in the statement, "This is not just a new product. It's about introducing true price discovery mechanisms and risk management standards to an industry in dire need of change." Futures contracts are common in global financial markets, with underlying assets including stock indices and commodities. If approved, this would be a first for the sports industry. (Jin Shi)
Odaily News: Benchmark partner Chetan Puttagunta posted on X, expressing confusion over Anthropic's public call for stricter regulations on AI model distillation. He noted that Anthropic is currently a company valued at around $1 trillion with vast technical and financial resources. At the scale they describe, a so-called "large-scale distillation attack" should, in theory, be relatively easy to identify and trace. If Anthropic chooses to restrict such behavior, the real cost might not be a lack of technical capability but forgoing some API revenue. "The only cost seems to be reducing related API business revenue."
Previously, Anthropic and other AI companies have been closely focused on the issue of model distillation. Model distillation typically involves using the output of a large model (the teacher model) to train another model (the student model) to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Some AI companies worry that competitors could potentially obtain model outputs by extensively calling APIs to train their own models, bypassing original R&D investment. Puttagunta's view suggests that the controversy around model distillation in the AI industry is fundamentally about balancing commercial interests, open competition, and intellectual property protection. For leading AI companies, finding a balance between protecting core technology and maintaining an open ecosystem will be a key competitive issue in the future.
Robinhood Q2 Net Revenue $1.31B Beats Expectations, Full-Year Expense Guidance Lowered
Odaily News: Robinhood reported Q2 2026 earnings with net revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year-over-year and above the analyst estimate of $1.28 billion. Net income was $573 million, up 48% year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share were $0.62, up 48% year-over-year.
The report showed Robinhood's adjusted EBITDA was $741 million, up 35% year-over-year and above the market estimate of $629 million. Net deposits reached $21.7 billion, an all-time high. Gold subscribers grew to 4.8 million, up 39% year-over-year.
By business line, Robinhood's cryptocurrency revenue was $100 million, above the market estimate of $86.6 million. Options revenue was $342 million, up 29% year-over-year. Average revenue per user (ARPU) reached $187, up 24% year-over-year.
The company expects full-year 2026 adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation to be between $2.675 billion and $2.775 billion, below previous guidance and market expectations. During the period, Trump account registrations exceeded 7 million, with deposits nearing $1.5 billion. Robinhood Chain mainnet launched, the company obtained a Singapore Capital Markets Services license, and completed the acquisition of WonderFi.
Binance.US to Apply for CFTC License Next Month, Plans to Launch Prediction Market
Odaily News: A Fox Business crypto reporter posted on X that Binance.US CEO Stevie Satoshi stated the exchange plans to apply for a Designated Contract Market license from the CFTC next month, aiming to offer prediction markets to its customers.
Project News
Bernstein Adjusts Circle Price Target from $190 to $140, Judges Open USD Threat to Weaken
Odaily News: Bernstein lowered its price target for Circle from $190 to $140 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that the threat from the Open USD alliance, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, is lower than market expectations. As of July 28, Circle closed at $64.32.
In Q2, the end-of-period USDC supply was approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in Q1, while the average supply rose to about $76 billion. The average SOFR rate in Q2 fell to 3.62%, and the reserve return rate dropped to 3.46%, with reserve income rising to approximately $655 million. USDC balances on Hyperliquid increased from $5 billion in mid-May to over $6 billion, generating an annualized gross reserve income of about $210 million, with approximately $190 million directed to the exchange under a revenue-sharing agreement.
Bernstein lowered its year-end 2026 USDC supply forecast by 37% to $83 billion, and its 2028 forecast to $170 billion. It cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 12% to $602 million and its earnings per share (EPS) forecast from $1.98 to $0.92. However, the firm estimates the total stablecoin supply will reach $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle holding approximately 30% market share. Additionally, Circle received final OCC approval in July to establish Circle National Trust. (The Block)
Binance bStocks Total AUM Surpasses $590 Million, Overtaking xStocks
Odaily News: Dune data shows that the total Assets Under Management (AUM) for bStocks has reached approximately $599 million, surpassing the xStocks AUM of approximately $589 million. The data indicates that bStocks' footprint in the on-chain stock asset sector has further expanded, demonstrating sustained market demand and user engagement.
