Nếu cuối cùng Đạo luật CLARITY không được thông qua thì sao?

Original Article by Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author: jk

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), which passed the House of Representatives by a vote of 294 to 134 on July 17, 2025, has been stalled in the Senate for over a year. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill to the legislative calendar by a vote of 15 to 9 on May 14, 2026, but to date, it has not received a full Senate vote nor been signed by the President.

So, what's the hold-up? Odaily has conducted a detailed analysis on this matter. Interested readers can refer to "So Close Yet So Far: What’s Blocking the CLARITY Act?"

The core of this bill is to classify and define crypto assets: clarify whether tokens are securities or commodities, and accordingly delineate the regulatory authority between the SEC and the CFTC. It also covers provisions for user self-custody of private keys, stablecoin yield mechanisms, and registration of foreign exchanges. The main dispute currently hindering a Senate vote revolves around a proposed ethics review clause concerning conflicts of interest involving senior government officials' crypto asset holdings.

On July 27, Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that the Senate will prioritize sanctions legislation against Russia and personnel appointments in the near term. Consequently, the voting window for the CLARITY Act may be pushed back to September. Industry participants and congressional negotiators had generally viewed August 7 as the last realistic window for the bill to pass in 2026. If this window is missed, most analysts believe the prospects for the bill becoming law this year will significantly diminish.

Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law within the year is only 35%. In February, this figure was 82%.

Probability of Clarity passing within the year continues to decline. Source: Polymarket

So, if the Clarity Act fails to pass, how will the crypto market react? What will happen to Bitcoin? How will related US stock market targets be impacted? What political shifts might occur in Washington? Odaily examines the potential scenarios the industry might face if the CLARITY Act ultimately fails to pass the Senate, from these three perspectives.

1. Crypto Market: Analysts Generally Believe the Impact is Limited, and Markets Have Already Priced It In

Based on current price action, the market's pessimism regarding the CLARITY Act is already gradually being reflected. The most prominent indicator is the decline in probability on Polymarket from 82% to the current 35%. Looking at the trend, this probability rose above 70% multiple times between February and May but has consistently declined since June, indicating a clear weakening of confidence. Cumulative trading volume has now reached $2.845 million.

Bitcoin's price has recently been under pressure, fluctuating around the $65,000 to $66,000 range in late July. Market interpretations generally link this to macroeconomic liquidity factors rather than the bill itself.

On the institutional side, most analysts are skeptical of the view that “failure of the bill equals an industry crisis.” Ed Engel, an analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading, maintains a sell rating on Coinbase. However, he also points out that even if the CLARITY Act fails, there are enough industry events in the second half of the year to sustain market attention, and the blockchain sector still has an opportunity to prove its practical value proposition over the next two to three years.

It's worth noting that the specific provisions within the bill are themselves highly contentious, and their potential impact varies significantly across different industry segments. Take the stablecoin yield clause, for example. A March draft of the CLARITY Act proposed prohibiting any stablecoin holding yield arrangements “substantially equivalent to interest.” This news caused Circle's stock price to plummet 20% in a single day, with Coinbase shares also falling nearly 10% on the same day. In other words, the market impact of the bill's failure largely depends on the final specifics of the provisions, rather than the passage or failure of the bill itself.

2. US Stock Market: Will Coinbase and Circle Plummet?

Coinbase

Coinbase's performance over the past week. Source: Google

Coinbase's stock price has recently come under pressure alongside the declining probability of the bill's passage. On July 28, COIN closed at $165, down 3.8% over the past five days, with the decline attributed to selling pressure stemming from the weakening prospects of the bill. Earlier in the week of July 24, COIN had fallen from its ~$169 quote level. Raymond James set a price target of $158, approximately 6.5% below the stock price at the time. Oppenheimer previously lowered its price target to $209. Baird cut its target from $160 to $142, maintaining a neutral rating.

In essence, institutions believe that if CLARITY fails to pass, we will likely see Coinbase trading in the $140 - $160 range.

At the same time, most analysts do not directly link Coinbase's long-term investment thesis to the success or failure of the CLARITY Act. Analysis cited by TipRanks suggests that even if the bill doesn't pass before August, the Wall Street trend towards institutional allocation to crypto assets will continue to support Coinbase's long-term growth. Coinbase is set to report its second quarter earnings on July 30. The market expects earnings per share of $0.19, a significant improvement from the loss per share of $1.49 in the first quarter. In the long run, if CLARITY doesn't pass, long-term growth could potentially offset this setback.

Circle

Circle's performance over the past week. Source: Google

Circle's situation is more complex. Some analysts believe that the failure of the bill might not necessarily be bad for Circle. Analysts at Mizuho Securities point out that if the CLARITY Act passes smoothly and brings a clearer regulatory framework, it could instead attract more competitors into the stablecoin space, accelerating homogenous competition in the stablecoin business and potentially reducing Circle's revenue in the long run. The stablecoin sector has already seen the launch of the Open USD project, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and BlackRock, posing direct competition to Circle's USDC. Mizuho had previously downgraded Circle partly due to this project.

On the other hand, if the CLARITY Act’s provisions limiting stablecoin yields are ultimately enacted, they would weaken the high-margin revenue Coinbase generates through its USDC distribution agreement. This could tilt bargaining power towards Circle in the renegotiation of their commercial agreement, scheduled for August 2026. Morgan Stanley analyst Thielen believes that a stricter federal regulatory framework generally favors licensed issuers with strong compliance capabilities, asset scale, and credit backing, making Circle a relative beneficiary in this landscape. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argues that the recent stock sell-off for Circle triggered by the draft bill was “overinterpreted” and that the bill itself does not change Circle's long-term investment thesis.

In other words, if CLARITY truly fails to pass, it might be good news for Circle's long-term price. If sentiment continues to weaken in the short term, several repeatedly cited support levels are around $61.70. In a more extreme scenario, some market participants mention a potential pullback to its February low of $49.

Crypto Treasury Companies

For crypto treasury companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker MSTR), their stock prices are far more correlated with Bitcoin's price movements than directly with the CLARITY Act itself. MSTR can be viewed as a leveraged play on Bitcoin.

As of July 1, impacted by Bitcoin's price dropping below $59,000, MSTR's stock price slid to the $85 to $86 range, marking its eleventh consecutive month of decline. This represents a drawdown of approximately 84% from its all-time high of around $540 in November 2024. Citi analysts linked their base-case forecast of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 to the expectation of CLARITY's passage. They believe that if the bill is smoothly enacted, pushing Bitcoin to $100,000, the value of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings would correspondingly rise to approximately $84 billion.

Strategy recently disclosed that its model calculates a lower bound for Bitcoin's annualized return at negative 11.34%. If actual returns fall below this level, the company may need to consider restructuring its debt. Notably, two publicly traded companies have collectively sold 511 Bitcoins within 24 hours to repay approximately $31.7 million in debt. Such financial pressures are somewhat independent of the CLARITY Act's legislative progress but can be amplified in an environment where the bill is delayed and market sentiment is weak. Strategy is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings during the week of July 30-31, and the market expects its stock price volatility to increase further during this period.

3. Washington Political Landscape: Future Legislation Will Be Much Tougher

Looking at the Senate voting structure, the bill's passage depends on securing support from 7 to 9 Democratic senators to overcome the 60-vote threshold. On the Republican side, Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul are expected to vote against it based on substantive grounds. This means that even if all 53 Republican senators are present, they would still be insufficient to pass the bill on their own. On the Democratic side, Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona is considered a relatively reliable source of support.

It's important to note that Democratic opposition to the bill isn't solely focused on the crypto regulatory framework itself. It is significantly tied to President Trump's and his family's disclosed crypto asset investments, totaling over $1 billion. Several Democratic senators view the ethics clause as a necessary check on potential presidential conflicts of interest. Senator Angela Alsobrooks previously described a compromise proposal put forth by the White House as a “non-serious offer.” This has, to some extent, tied the legislative progress of the CLARITY Act to the broader goal of opposing Trump, rather than being a purely technical debate over industry regulation.

If the bill ultimately fails to pass in 2026, most analysts believe this would not lead to a regulatory vacuum. Instead, the crypto industry would continue to rely on two existing pathways for the near term: First, the GENIUS Act, which took effect in July 2025, which currently specifically governs payment stablecoins and their issuers. Second, the respective regulatory agendas of the SEC and CFTC. The SEC's “Regulation Crypto” proposal is expected to formally enter the rulemaking process in the second half of 2026.

Regarding the timeline, the November 2026 midterm elections are a key variable influencing the bill's subsequent progress. Most analysts believe that if the window before the August recess is missed, the likelihood of resuming consideration in the fall is significantly compressed due to appropriations bill disputes and the approaching election cycle. Substantive progress would likely have to wait until 2027. However, 2027 itself falls into a phase of political realignment post-midterms, significantly lowering the chances of carrying forward the previous bipartisan consensus on this bill. An alternative path suggested by some industry lobbyists is to attach the core provisions of the CLARITY Act to a must-pass omnibus bill at year's end. However, as of now, no senator has publicly confirmed that this strategy is being seriously considered.