BTC rơi xuống dưới 60.000 USD, liệu có còn cơ hội vọt lên 100.000 USD?

Bitcoin has just emerged from its toughest period since 2026, with a cumulative decline of about 30% in the first half of the year, and may potentially close lower for the second consecutive quarter, a scenario that has only occurred twice before in Bitcoin's history.

BTC fell from approximately $65,800 at the beginning of June to below $60,000 at the start of July. Throughout most of June, it declined slowly rather than through a single-day crash.

However, amidst this downturn, Standard Chartered Bank made a rather unusual move.

Instead of lowering its Bitcoin price forecast for the third time this year, the bank maintained its year-end target of $100,000. Its chief analyst even described this decline as a buying opportunity rather than a warning signal.

On one side, prices are falling; on the other, a major bank refuses to waver. This contrast is at the heart of this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction article.

Below, we'll dissect the current signals from Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and ETF flow data, and outline the key price levels worth watching for the remainder of the month.

Key Takeaways

• As of July 1, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $59,000, down about 30% year-to-date.
• Despite BTC falling below $60,000, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick maintains a $100,000 year-end target for 2026, calling this pullback a buying opportunity.
• Bernstein holds a more optimistic target of $150,000 for 2026, last reaffirming this view on March 24, 2026.
• Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $4.06 billion in June 2026, the largest monthly redemption since the funds launched in January 2024.
• This outflow marks the third similar cycle in 2026, following similar reversals in February and April. This pattern is as noteworthy as any single price target.
• Support is roughly holding around the $58,000 level; a return above approximately $65,800 would signal that the downtrend may be ending.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction July 2026: Standard Chartered Refuses to Abandon the $100,000 Target

Heading into July, one of the most closely watched Bitcoin price predictions comes from Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, the bank's Head of Digital Assets Research.

Even after the recent price dip below $60,000, he maintains his year-end BTC target of $100,000, and his reasoning is far from vague optimism.

How the $300,000 Bitcoin Prediction Was Halved, Then Cut Again

Before directly looking at the $100,000 figure, it's important to understand that this target has already survived two rounds of downgrades this year.

Standard Chartered began 2026 with a bolder $150,000 prediction, which itself was a significant reduction from the bank's more aggressive $300,000 forecast proposed in 2025.

Kendrick's initial logic was built on two independent demand pillars: steady corporate treasury buying, following the model pioneered by Strategy, and accelerating inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs.

When corporate treasury buying noticeably slowed late last year, the bank lowered its target to $150,000, noting that future gains would effectively depend solely on ETF buying.

Then, in February 2026, as ETF outflows accumulated in the early part of the year, Kendrick reduced the target again to $100,000, simultaneously warning that Bitcoin might first fall towards $50,000 before a genuine recovery.

Therefore, when this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction mentions Standard Chartered's view, it's crucial to know that this figure has already withstood two market declines and, so far, hasn't required a third adjustment.

Standard Chartered Calls This Crash a Gift, Not a Warning

Kendrick's persistence with the target during the June crash is backed by quite specific reasons, not just general bullishness.

He points out that the decline truly originated from Bitcoin ETF outflows, forced liquidations related to over-leveraged positions, and a small-scale liquidation by one corporate holder, rather than a change in Bitcoin's underlying demand logic.

In his view, the combination of these factors looks more like a temporary setback than the start of a prolonged bear market; he has publicly described the dip below $60,000 as a buying opportunity.

Standard Chartered's long-term view has also hardly changed. The bank still expects Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2030, just via a slower path than originally envisioned.

Bitcoin's Current Position and Why It Just Experienced Its Worst Month of 2026

According to CoinMarketCap data, as of July 1, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at just under $59,500.

Based on CoinGecko historical price data, this means BTC has fallen over 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2025.

Looking strictly at the past month, the picture becomes even clearer.

BTC opened June near $65,800 and trended downwards consistently throughout the month. Multiple ETF flow reports indicate that for most of June, Bitcoin's price languished in the $58,000 to $60,000 range, ending closer to $59,000 as July began.

The primary driver of this decline wasn't a scandal specific to Bitcoin or a new regulatory shock, but a wave of outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs.

June recorded the worst month for ETF outflows since these products launched in the US in January 2024, continuing a redemption trend that had been forming since mid-May.

Some context is needed here: according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs since their launch in 2024 still stand at around $55 billion. While 2026 flows turned negative year-to-date due to the May and June outflow surge, this looks more like a difficult correction than an institutional exodus.

Compounding this, overall risk appetite in financial markets decreased as investors worried that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for longer, leaving BTC with little support for most of June.

None of this means Bitcoin's long-term trajectory has changed, but it does explain why so many traders are now eagerly searching for clear Bitcoin price predictions rather than staring silently at their charts.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case: How High or Low Could BTC Go Next?

Not all Wall Street institutions are as cautious as Standard Chartered.

Bernstein actually moved in the opposite direction this year, raising its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000, calling the 2026 downturn one of the mildest bear scenarios in Bitcoin's history. The firm last reiterated this view on March 24, 2026, arguing that this time lacks the systemic failures seen in past crypto winters.

Analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani, believe Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle linked to halving events may be beginning to unravel, replaced by a longer, institution-led bull run. They predict a potential cycle peak near $200,000 in 2027 and a long-term target around $1,000,000 by 2033.

Taking an even broader view, ARK Invest's own research estimates Bitcoin's market cap at roughly $16 trillion by 2030 in its base case. Based on current supply, this translates to approximately $750,000 to $800,000 per Bitcoin, driven primarily by what the firm describes as Bitcoin's expanding role as digital gold and increased institutional and sovereign adoption.

Simply put, the bull case is: a short-term range of $100,000 to $150,000 by year-end, followed by significantly higher numbers in the latter half of this decade.

The bear case relies more on the chart itself than any single analyst model.

Support sits roughly in the $58,000 to $60,000 range, consistent with the price zone where Bitcoin traded for most of June according to multiple ETF flow reports.

A confirmed break below this range could see prices fall further towards $55,000. Conversely, reclaiming the $65,800 level where Bitcoin started June would be the clearest signal yet that the downtrend has likely ended.

In short, this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction isn't about a single number, but a range: a downside anchor around $55,000 and an upside potentially at $150,000 or higher, depending on which set of analysts you find more convincing.

Why Two Banks Looking at the Same Bitcoin Chart Can Differ by $50,000

For those new to cryptocurrency, seeing two major banks look at the same Bitcoin chart yet arrive at conclusions differing by $50,000 for the December price can be confusing.

This discrepancy usually comes down to which piece of the puzzle each analyst prioritizes.

Standard Chartered's model leans heavily on ETF flow data, as Kendrick has stated that after the slowdown in corporate treasury buying, future Bitcoin price increases will effectively depend on this single channel.

Bernstein's model weighs a different perspective: that Bitcoin's past four-year boom-and-bust cycles, linked to halving schedules, are no longer applicable now that institutions, rather than retail, dominate most of the buying and selling.

Both frameworks aren't necessarily wrong; they simply measure different signals. This is precisely why this July 2026 Bitcoin price prediction references multiple sources rather than picking one number and presenting it as a definitive answer.

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