Bitcoin's Five-Wave Adjustment Nearing Its End, HYPE Support Zone Presents Opportunity | Special Analysis

This week, BTC is currently in the final stage of a five-wave corrective structure. The formation level of "Endpoint 44" will determine the short-term direction — if it forms above 58,110, the probability of a rebound is high; if below without a bullish divergence, caution is needed for a potential breakdown. We have prepared three sets of operation plans (A/B/C). Maintain a medium-term short position of 20%, and retain 30% of the short-term position to seek spread opportunities.

Meanwhile, HYPE has initiated a five-wave correction from its high of 76.94, currently running in wave 55-56. If "Endpoint 56" forms a double bottom above the previous low, the probability of a rebound is significant; once the support zone stabilizes, consider opening a light long position, strictly controlling the position to under 30%.

For the complete structural analysis, quantitative model signal interpretation, and specific operation plans, please refer to the full text of this week's review.

Summary of Key Trading Views for This Week

• Analysis of the BTC hourly level trend structure (details in Part 1)
• BTC price outlook and medium & short-term trading strategies for this week (details in Part 2)
• Analysis of the HYPE hourly level trend structure (details in Part 3)
• HYPE price outlook and short-term trading strategy for this week (details in Part 4)

Market Verification of Last Week's Trading Strategy and Key Views

• BTC Short-term Trading Results: Bitcoin completed two short-term short trades last week (1x leverage), yielding a profit of approximately 6.21%. (Details in Part 5)
• Market Verification of BTC Price Trend Forecast: In last week's review, we forecasted (as shown in Figure 1) that if "Endpoint 41" could not stabilize above the lower rail of the channel, the market would likely retest the previous support level of $59,100. The current market movement has validated this view.

I. In-depth Analysis of the Bitcoin Hourly Level Trend Structure

Figure 1 Bitcoin _ 4-hour K-line Chart

① As shown in Figure 1: Last week's review clearly stated that the (40-41) wave was a retracement confirmation of breaking below the lower rail of the short-term ascending channel (blue channel). If "Endpoint 41" could not stabilize above the lower rail of the channel, the trend weakens, increasing the probability of retesting the $59,100 support level. The chart shows that the adjustment last week found short-term support only after dipping to a low of $58,110.

② From a 4-hour cycle perspective, the oversold rebound that started from the June 6 low of $59,100 has been confirmed to have ended at "Endpoint 39" ($67,300).

Figure 2 Bitcoin _ 4-hour Chart

③ As shown in Figure 2: Starting from "Endpoint 39", the market has entered a clear 5-wave corrective structure (Endpoint 39 to Endpoint 44), and is currently running the (43-44) corrective wave.

The final location of "Endpoint 44" will be key to the short-term direction:

• If "Endpoint 44" is above $58,110: It is expected to trigger a relatively strong technical rebound, likely leading to a wide-range consolidation/shock pattern.
• If "Endpoint 44" is below $58,110 but shows a bullish momentum divergence: There is still a rebound opportunity, but the strength of the rebound needs observation.
• If "Endpoint 44" is below $58,110 without a bullish momentum divergence: After a short-term adjustment, the price may break down further.

④ Summary: Based on our proprietary quantitative model analysis, the probability of the first two scenarios occurring is relatively higher.

II. Bitcoin Price Forecast and Trading Strategy for This Week

1. BTC Price Trend Forecast for This Week

Core View: Focus on the formation of "Endpoint 44." If the first scenario mentioned above occurs, consider opening a light short-term long position.

2. Key Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Zone: $60,900 ~ $62,300 area (previous key high/low level)
• Second Resistance Zone: Around $65,500 (previous key resistance area)
• Third Resistance Zone: $67,300 ~ $69,500 area (previous key resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels

• First Support Level: Around $58,100 (previous key support level)
• Second Support Level: Around $55,000 (previous key support level)

4. Operation Strategy for This Week (Excluding Sudden News Impact)

① Medium-term Strategy

Figure 3 Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the current price has effectively broken below the "Long/Short Channel," confirming a shift to a bearish dominant market structure. Maintain the medium-term short position at around 20% for now.

② Short-term Strategy

Utilize 30% of the position, set stop-losses, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using the 30-minute / 60-minute timeframe as the operation cycle).

③ A/B/C Three Operation Plans

To dynamically adapt to complex market evolution in short-term trading, we have pre-defined three specific operation plans: A/B/C.

Plan A: Tentative Long in Strong Support Zone (Endpoint 44 Above $58,110)

• Entry: If the price hits the above scenario, combined with quantitative model signals, establish a long position of around 15%.
• Risk Control: Set the initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price rebounds near a key resistance level, combined with quantitative model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

Plan B: Light Short in Resistance Zone

• Entry: If the price rebounds to the $60,900 ~ $62,300 area and shows signs of rejection, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, establish an initial short position of around 15%.
• Risk Control: Set the initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price adjusts near a key support level, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

Plan C: Add to Short in Strong Resistance Zone

• Add Position: If the price continues to rebound towards the $65,000 or even $67,300 resistance area and shows signs of weakening/stalling, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, consider adding to the short position, keeping the total within 30%.
• Risk Control: Set the initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price declines to a key support level, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

III. Analysis of the HYPE Hourly Level Trend Structure

Figure 4 HYPE_4 hour K-line Chart

① As shown in Figure 4, HYPE started its correction from the June 16 high of $76.94 (Endpoint 51). On the 4-hour timeframe, it can be broken down into a five-wave corrective structure: waves 51-52, 52-53, 53-54, 54-55, 55-56. The price is currently running in the 55-56 corrective wave. The position and status of "Endpoint 56" will be key to the near-term price movement.

② Scenarios for Short-term Correction Conclusion:

• If "Endpoint 56" is higher than "Endpoint 54", a "double bottom" pattern forms, this correction is likely over, and a rebound from "Endpoint 56" is highly probable.
• If "Endpoint 56" is lower than "Endpoint 54" but forms a bullish momentum divergence, the probability of the correction ending is also relatively high, potentially leading to a rebound.

③ Scenarios for Short-term Correction Continuation:

• If "Endpoint 56" is lower than "Endpoint 54" without a bullish momentum divergence, the correction might extend into a seven-wave structure.

④ According to our proprietary quantitative model analysis, the probability of the first scenario (double bottom) is significantly higher.

IV. HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week

1. HYPE Price Trend Forecast for This Week

Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: Around $65.5
• Second Resistance Level: Around $71.5

Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $58.5
• Second Support Level: $52 ~ $54 zone

Core View for HYPE This Week: Observe the final position and technical pattern formed by "Endpoint 56".

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week (Buy on Support)

Short-term HYPE trading this week should follow the strategy of "accumulate on dips, avoid chasing rallies."

Short-term Strategy: Try going long after stabilization in the support zone. When the HYPE price adjusts above $58.8, or deeper into the $52 ~ $54 support zone, and shows signs of stabilizing, combined with bottom signals triggered by the two models, consider opening a light long position. The position must be strictly controlled to under 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

V. Review of Bitcoin Short-term Trades

Strictly following the operation plan and trading signals generated by our self-built "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quant Model," we executed two short-term short trades last week, achieving a total trading profit of approximately 6.21%.

1. Short-term Trade 1

Bitcoin Short-term Trade Details (Leverage: 1x):

Entry Strategy:

• When the price rebounded to around $65,500, encountered resistance, and showed rejection signals, the K-line formed a bearish "top divergence" signal.
• The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a top warning signal (white dot), and the "Momentum Quant Model" formed a bearish momentum divergence signal.

Therefore, we established a 15% short position at $64,530.

Exit Strategy:

• When the price fell to around $62,000 and found support, the K-line formed a bullish "bottom divergence" signal.
• The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "Momentum Quant Model."

Therefore, we closed the entire position around $62,474.

Summary: This trade yielded a profit of approximately 3.18%.

2. Short-term Trade 2

Bitcoin Short-term Trade Details (Leverage: 1x):

Entry Strategy:

• When the price moved to around $63,000, the two momentum lines in the "Momentum Quant Model" approached the "zero axis" and showed a state of momentum exhaustion, subsequently forming the first "death cross" (bearish crossover) below the "zero axis."
• Simultaneously, the "Spread Trading Model" also issued a top warning signal.

Therefore, we established a 15% short position at $62,679.

Exit Strategy:

• When the price fell to around $59,000 and found support, the K-line formed a bullish "bottom divergence" signal.
• The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "Momentum Quant Model."

Therefore, we closed the entire position around $60,775.

Summary: This trade yielded a profit of approximately 3.03%.

Figure 5·Short-term Trade Illustration

VI. Special Reminders

1. Upon opening a position: Set the initial stop-loss immediately.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to protect capital.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the profit 1% level.
4. Continuous tracking: Subsequently, for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Risk Disclaimer:

Financial markets change rapidly. All market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. The views, analytical models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, serve solely as a personal trading journal, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market involves high risk. Please invest with caution and do not make decisions based solely on this content.