UNI đạt 100 đô la sau bốn năm, liệu dự đoán của Standard Chartered có thành hiện thực?
- Quan điểm cốt lõi: Standard Chartered dự đoán giá mục tiêu năm 2030 của token UNI là 100 đô la, với logic cốt lõi là tài sản token hóa sẽ thúc đẩy nhu cầu thanh khoản DeFi mở, Uniswap có khả năng hấp thụ khối lượng giao dịch lớn và thu phí. Tuy nhiên, dự đoán này phụ thuộc rất lớn vào việc liệu tài sản token hóa có thực sự phá vỡ được rào cản gia nhập của các tổ chức để đạt được lưu thông tự do hay không.
- Các yếu tố then chốt:
- Standard Chartered dự đoán đến năm 2030, quy mô tài sản token hóa mà thị trường DeFi nắm giữ sẽ vượt 2 nghìn tỷ đô la, tăng từ mức khoảng 3,5% hiện tại lên 30%, tạo nền tảng tăng trưởng cho Uniswap.
- Mặc dù quỹ BUIDL của BlackRock đã kết nối với công nghệ Uniswap, nhưng chỉ giới hạn cho 108 người nắm giữ đủ điều kiện, chứng minh thực trạng tài sản token hóa hiện tại vẫn tồn tại sự kiểm soát chặt chẽ về khả năng tiếp cận.
- Uniswap, với tư cách là cơ sở hạ tầng thanh khoản, hiện có tổng giá trị bị khóa (TVL) trên đa chuỗi khoảng 2,89 tỷ đô la, và thu nhập từ phí trong 30 ngày qua vượt quá 50 triệu đô la, sở hữu quy mô nền tảng để đáp ứng nhu cầu.
- Token UNI thiếu cơ chế thu giữ giá trị ổn định, việc phân bổ phí giao thức và cơ chế đốt token phụ thuộc vào quản trị cộng đồng, không thể đảm bảo người nắm giữ hưởng lợi trực tiếp từ sự tăng trưởng khối lượng giao dịch.
- Ủy ban Ổn định Tài chính chỉ ra rằng ngành token hóa tồn tại các vấn đề như khả năng tiếp cận khép kín, thiếu khả năng tương tác, và phân mảnh nền tảng giao dịch, cản trở tài sản trở thành công cụ thanh khoản phổ dụng cho DeFi.
Original Author: Liam Akiba Wright
Original Translation: Luffy, Foresight News
TL;DR:
- Standard Chartered Bank reportedly released a research report on Uniswap, setting a target price of $100 for the UNI token by 2030.
- The bank's core thesis is that tokenized assets will generate demand for open DeFi liquidity, with Uniswap poised to handle significant trading volume and earn fees.
- However, most institutional-grade tokenization products are permissioned, and BlackRock's BUIDL product demonstrates that barriers to entry still exist in the DeFi space.
Standard Chartered Bank has set a target price of $100 for the UNI token by the end of 2030, a prediction that would see the governance token of the leading decentralized exchange trade well above its current market price.
Standard Chartered's argument is that various tokenized assets will require decentralized trading platforms in the future to transform fragmented on-chain financial instruments into tradable liquidity.
The bank estimates that the total market size of global tokenized assets could reach $4 trillion by 2028, and the proportion of these assets flowing into the DeFi market will increase from the current ~3.5% to 30% by 2030. Based on this calculation, the DeFi market could host assets exceeding $2 trillion by 2030.
Currently, banks, asset managers, transfer agents, and compliance platforms are all positioning themselves in the asset tokenization sector. However, if such assets require 24/7 trading, flexible collateralization, and cross-product composability that a single institution's proprietary systems cannot support, open decentralized protocols will capture the liquidity benefits.
In the current market environment, a core question emerges: will on-chain assets like tokenized treasuries, tokenized funds, tokenized stocks, and stablecoins become liquid assets in open decentralized markets, or will they remain confined within closed systems with strict access controls and fully managed settlement and transfer processes?
Growth Prospects Depend on Open Liquidity
Standard Chartered's valuation target is built on a series of assumptions: first, a significant expansion of the tokenized asset market; second, a substantial portion of these tokenized assets moving beyond being mere compliant, on-chain wrappers for ownership registration to becoming truly active in DeFi markets; and third, Uniswap capturing a sufficient share of related trading volume to drive UNI token value. The core logic of this thesis shifts the focus from asset issuance to liquidity trading.
Standard Chartered has long defined asset tokenization as a major long-term opportunity. In 2024, the bank, in collaboration with consulting firm Synpulse, released a report predicting that the global market for real-world asset tokenization would reach $30.1 trillion by 2034, with trade finance being a key application sector. The report also mentioned that tokenization would give rise to new DeFi applications and business models.
A tokenization report by Citi from June 2026 offers a similar market size estimate but also highlights constraining factors: the bank's baseline scenario predicts a tokenized asset market size of $5.5 trillion by 2030, with an optimistic scenario of $8.2 trillion. The report also notes that a hybrid model might dominate, with institutions controlling issuance, distribution, and settlement channels.
The divergence between these two paths directly determines Uniswap's growth potential. If the scale of tokenized assets continues to grow but value remains locked within bank platforms, transfer agent systems, brokerage networks, and compliant trading markets, the growth space for open DeFi will be very limited.
Conversely, if various tokenized financial instruments, stablecoins, and collateral assets need to trade freely across categories, protocols like Uniswap will see their industry standing significantly enhanced.
Data from DeFiLlama confirms Uniswap's capability to handle such demand. As of writing, the protocol's Total Value Locked across multiple chains is approximately $2.89 billion, with fee income exceeding $50 million over the last 30 days.
The current data only represents baseline operational scale, but it sufficiently illustrates Uniswap's positioning as liquidity infrastructure.
For institutions, there is a clear operational difference between the two. Issuing a tokenized fund is one process; building a venue where the token can be freely exchanged with stablecoins, collateral, and other tokenized assets is a separate business.
The gap between these two determines whether the automated market maker Uniswap becomes essential infrastructure or remains a marginal supporting channel.
Thus, the choice of trading venue is as important as asset issuance. Liquidity determines whether tokenized products can form tradable markets, reusable collateral, and settled assets; otherwise, they risk becoming static ownership certificates within compliant systems.
BlackRock's BUIDL: Connected to DeFi, but Gated Access
BlackRock's BUIDL (BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund) is a real-world case study highlighting this tension. In February, Uniswap Labs and compliance platform Securitize jointly announced that BUIDL would be available via the UniswapX trading venue.
This integration uses a Request-for-Quote (RFQ) mechanism and is only open to whitelisted users and pre-approved qualified participants.
A previous CryptoSlate report on BUIDL highlighted the core contradiction: BUIDL holders could exchange it for USDC via UniswapX, but trading access had strict eligibility requirements.
The trading process leverages DeFi technology, yet asset circulation is restricted to approved institutional participants.
The initial issuance rules for BlackRock's BUIDL fully reflect this controlled model: the product is only available to qualified investors, with a minimum investment of $5 million. Assets can only be transferred to pre-approved parties and are not listed for trading on any exchange.
RWA.xyz data shows that as of June 16, BUIDL's total asset size was approximately $2.37 billion, held by only 108 entities.
This situation, combined with the access rules, clearly illustrates the current state of the tokenization industry. Large-scale tokenized products can exist on-chain, but participation is highly concentrated and subject to full access control throughout the process.
Standard Chartered's investor presentation materials from May 2026 also cited BUIDL's integration with Uniswap as a case study to demonstrate the use of decentralized platforms for asset distribution and trading.
Even though the full UNI valuation report has not been made public, this presentation material already categorizes Uniswap as supporting infrastructure for institutional digital assets, which forms the foundational support for the $100 price target.
The BlackRock BUIDL model sits somewhere in between, utilizing Uniswap technology at its core but retaining institutional access controls throughout the process. This design builds a bridge to DeFi infrastructure but does not fully place tokenized assets into a permissionless, open liquidity pool.
The liquidity solution accepted by institutional assets will likely first adopt this compromise model: leveraging DeFi infrastructure for trading and settlement, while imposing hard restrictions on user identity, asset transfers, and counterparties.
UNI Still Lacks a Value Capture Mechanism
Even if Uniswap handles more trading of real-world tokenized assets, it does not directly mean that UNI holders will benefit proportionally, as the protocol still lacks a stable value capture mechanism.
A previously passed proposal on the Tally platform regarding UNI tokenomics upgrades outlined plans for protocol fee distribution, UNI token burning, and positioning Uniswap as the default trading hub for tokenized assets.
This roadmap provides a concrete path for the valuation logic, but it depends on multiple prerequisites: community governance decisions, fee adjustments, institutional business partnerships, and genuine growth in trading volume—all are essential.
Standard Chartered's $100 target not only significantly exceeds the current price but also surpasses UNI's historical all-time high from 2021. Achieving this target cannot rely solely on asset issuance growth; it requires real, sustained transaction flow, stable fee income, and a clear mechanism linking the protocol's development to token value.
The core tension in the institutional tokenization space is that banks and asset managers need decentralized capabilities like on-chain settlement, 24/7 transfers, programmable collateral, and stablecoin payments, while simultaneously insisting on KYC identity verification, asset transfer restrictions, designated counterparties, and maintaining control over secondary market deployment.
The Financial Stability Board's research report on tokenization also confirms this cautious approach. The report notes that the overall scale of tokenization is currently small, and the industry faces multiple issues such as closed access, insufficient cross-platform interoperability, limited settlement assets, and fragmented trading venues.
These frictions are precisely the core obstacles preventing tokenized assets from becoming universal liquid instruments in DeFi.
If these industry barriers persist long-term, Uniswap will only become a marginal supporting channel in the institutional tokenization framework; if these pain points are gradually resolved, the protocol could become the core trading venue where tokenized funds, stablecoins, and native crypto assets converge.
Ultimately, Standard Chartered's valuation prediction hinges on where the liquidity from tokenization eventually flows. The $100 target represents significant upside potential, but the more critical signal is that a traditional Wall Street investment bank now recognizes the potential for DeFi protocols to participate in the wave of institutional tokenization.
BlackRock's BUIDL case has already demonstrated that asset managers can use DeFi technology while maintaining strict circulation controls; Citi's outlook on the tokenization industry suggests Wall Street will likely build a hybrid system, keeping issuance, distribution, and settlement firmly in institutional hands; and the various industry pain points highlighted by the Financial Stability Board underscore that interoperability and settlement infrastructure remain core challenges for the industry.
Future market signals will come from more examples of tokenized assets being integrated. If new assets all adopt isolated whitelist-based RFQ channels, open DeFi can only capture a small fraction of the market; if unified cross-asset liquidity pools gradually materialize and custom control rules decrease, Uniswap's role in the tokenization space will no longer be limited to native cryptocurrency exchange.
