Bitcoin's consolidation does not alter the dominant downtrend; HYPE repeatedly tests critical trendline support | Special Analysis

In last week's report, based on Bitcoin's daily-level trend structure, we explicitly proposed the core judgment that "the oversold rebound phase has begun, and the rebound height will determine the subsequent market direction." At the same time, we issued a warning for HYPE stating that "the probability of adjustment near endpoint 61 ($72.97) is significant." This week's market trajectory has further validated the effectiveness of the aforementioned analytical framework: Bitcoin completed its multi-segment rebound as expected and touched key resistance levels, while HYPE, as predicted, faced resistance and retreated near $72.97, with a maximum decline of 9.39%.

Building on this foundation, this week's report will provide a detailed breakdown of the BTC and HYPE market evolution paths and specific trading strategies, incorporating the latest 4-hour and daily-level trend structures and signals from our proprietary quantitative models.

Key Trading Views Summary for This Week:

• BTC multi-cycle trend structure analysis (detailed in Part One)

• BTC price prediction and medium/short-term trading strategy for this week (detailed in Part Two)

• HYPE hourly-level trend structure analysis (detailed in Part Three)

• HYPE price prediction and short-term trading strategy for this week (detailed in Part Four)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategy and Core Views:

• Validation of BTC Market Outlook Prediction: Last week's article clearly pointed out that Bitcoin had entered a daily-level oversold rebound phase and emphasized that the height of this rebound would determine the subsequent market direction. The current market trajectory is developing in the direction we predicted.

• Validation of HYPE Market Outlook Prediction: Last week's article indicated that the probability of HYPE undergoing an adjustment near "Endpoint 61" ($72.97) was significant. Currently, the market trend is highly consistent with our judgment.

1. Analysis of Bitcoin's Previous Cycle Trend Structure

1. Bitcoin daily-level trend structure analysis: (Based on market analysis after May 6)

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart

Figure 1

①, As shown in Figure 1: The adjustment that began from the high of $82,850 on May 6 has formed a four-segment adjustment structure on the daily chart: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).

②, Since hitting a low of $57,820 on July 1, the market is currently running the (3-4) rebound segment, and the price has broken through the $64,500 resistance level. Last week's report clearly stated that if this rebound first breaks through the $64,500 resistance and subsequently the $65,700 resistance (optimal), then when the (3-4) rebound segment completes and retraces, the probability of finding support above the low of $57,820 significantly increases, meaning a subsequent stabilization and rebound rally is expected.

③, On the daily timeframe, through the overlap of the three segments (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4), the price has tentatively formed a "declining consolidation range" (as shown in the chart). Based on the above analysis, the market is highly likely to enter a "range extension" phase, meaning this "range" will be formed by the overlap of five or even more segments. This suggests the short-term market is entering a sideways consolidation pattern.

2. In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's hourly-level trend structure: (Using the 4-hour chart as the analysis timeframe)

Bitcoin 4-Hour K-line Chart

Figure 2

①, On the 4-hour chart, the rebound that started from the low of $57,820 on July 1 has clearly formed a three-segment structure: (44-45), (45-46), (46-47).

②, According to the analysis of the current trend structure, the price is running the (46-47) rebound segment. As it creates a local high "Endpoint 47," our proprietary "Momentum Quantitative Model" shows a clear bearish divergence signal, and the "Spread Trading Model" triggered a top warning signal (white dot). Therefore, the probability of an hourly-level technical adjustment occurring here is very high. If the price corrects as expected, focus on the support effectiveness near "Endpoint 46." If a stabilization signal appears at this level, another rebound is likely, with the first upside target pointing to $65,700; if the rebound momentum is strong, the next important target is $67,300.

2. Bitcoin Price Prediction and Trading Strategy for This Week (07.13～07.19)

1. BTC Price Outlook for This Week:

Core View for This Week: Focus on the price performance near the key resistance level of $64,700. If an adjustment occurs as expected, closely observe the support effectiveness when the price retraces to around $61,500. The stabilization signal at this level will determine whether the subsequent rebound can continue.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $64,700 area (previous range upper boundary)

• Second Resistance Zone: $65,700～$67,300 area (previous key resistance zone)

• Third Resistance Zone: $69,500～$71,000 area (previous key resistance zone)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Zone: $60,950～$62,000 area (previous key support zone)

• Second Support Level: Around $57,820 (previous key support level)

• Third Support Level: Around $55,000 (previous key support level)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week (excluding sudden news impacts):

①, Medium-term Strategy: Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 3

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the current price has effectively broken below the "Long-Short Channel," confirming the market structure has shifted to a bearish-dominant pattern.

• Current medium-term short positions should be temporarily maintained at around 20%.

• If the price bounces to the $65,700～$67,300 zone and shows signs of stalling, combined with top signals from our proprietary quantitative models, consider increasing the medium-term short position to within 50%.

②, Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% of the position, set stop-losses, and look for "spread trading" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute charts as the operating timeframe).

③, For short-term trading, to dynamically respond to complex market developments, we have prepared three specific operation plans (A/B/C) in advance.

• Plan A: Tentatively go long if support holds in the $60,950～$62,000 zone. • Entry: If the price adjusts from around $64,700 and shows stabilization signals when falling to the $60,950～$62,000 zone, combined with bottom signals from quantitative models, aggressive investors can establish a long position of around 15%. • Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price rebounds near important resistance levels and combines with quantitative model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

• Plan B: Tentatively go short at the strong resistance zone. • Entry: If the price bounces to the $65,700～$67,300 zone and encounters resistance, combined with top signals from quantitative models, establish a short position of around 30%. • Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price adjusts near important support levels and combines with quantitative model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

• Plan C: Lightly go long at the strong support zone. • Entry: The price bounces, breaks $65,700, but then encounters resistance and retraces. If it finds support and shows stabilization signals above the previous low of $57,820, combined with bottom signals from quantitative models, establish a long position of around 30%. • Risk Control: Set an initial stop-loss. • Exit: When the price rebounds near important resistance levels and combines with model signals, gradually close the position to lock in profits.

3. HYPE Hourly-Level Trend Structure Analysis

HYPE 4-Hour K-line Chart

Figure 4

1, As shown in Figure 4, from the low of $58.5 on June 25 (Endpoint 54) to the high of $72.97 on July 7 (Endpoint 61), HYPE's 4-hour chart can be subdivided into a seven-segment upward structure. Among these, segments 55-56, 56-57, and 57-58 overlap, forming an "upward consolidation range."

2, Last week's report pointed out: Since the structure from "Endpoint 54 to Endpoint 61" is a complete seven-segment upward structure, and top warning signals were triggered at "Endpoint 59" and "Endpoint 61" respectively, be cautious of short-term adjustment risk. As expected last week, the market encountered resistance near $72.97 and began to adjust. During the (61-62) adjustment segment, the maximum decline was approximately 9.39%.

3, Based on the 4-hour chart analysis, the price is currently running the (61-62) adjustment segment. "Endpoint 62" has already broken below the previous low of "Endpoint 60" ($68.16), which initially disrupts the uptrend structure since "Endpoint 54." 

4. HYPE Price Prediction and Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week

1. HYPE Price Outlook for This Week:

①, Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: $68～$69.5 area

• Second Resistance Level: Around $72.97

• Third Resistance Level: Around $76.94

②, Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $65.5

• Second Support Zone: $60.5～$61.5 area

Core HYPE View for This Week: Focus on the termination point of the current adjustment "Endpoint 62" and whether the subsequent rebound can break through the $72.97 resistance level.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week: Short-term Trading This Week: Strategy 1: If after the (61-62) adjustment segment ends, the price rebounds and breaks through the $72.97 resistance, as it will be approaching the strong resistance zone near the all-time high of $76.94, it is recommended to stay out of the position and observe.

Strategy 2: Conversely, if after the (61-62) adjustment segment ends, the price rebounds but fails to reach $72.97, it is recommended to establish short positions on rallies. Strict stop-losses must be set, and position size should be controlled within 30%.

5. Special Reminders:

1. When opening a position: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the position where profit is 1%.
4. Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit in price, move the stop-loss by 1% simultaneously to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets change rapidly; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. The views, analysis models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are all derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely as a personal trading log, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market involves risk; invest with caution. Do not make decisions based solely on this content.