The World Cup quarter-finals are about to begin – who are the AIs tipping to advance?

Original Article: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)

Now that the World Cup quarterfinalists are set, the real knockout stage has just begun.

France has maintained a strong presence throughout, with consistent attacking firepower and someone always stepping up in key moments. Morocco continues its dark horse run, eliminating Canada 3-0 in the Round of 16 and proving they are no flash in the pan. Spain has played the most steadily, with solid defensive discipline and control-based pressure, edging out Portugal in the Round of 16 to keep Cristiano Ronaldo out of the quarterfinals. Belgium, meanwhile, reasserted their attacking threat with a dominant 4-1 victory over the United States.

On the other side, Norway has been the biggest surprise of the tournament. Led by Haaland, they knocked out Brazil 2-1, creating the most significant upset of the knockout stage so far. England, despite a bumpy ride, relied on their squad depth to narrowly beat Mexico 3-2. Argentina's progression was the most dramatic, coming back from 2-0 down against Egypt to win 3-2. Switzerland dragged Colombia into a penalty shootout, securing their quarterfinal spot in typical "tough-as-nails" fashion.

To provide reference points for predictions related to the upcoming four quarterfinal matches, I asked ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok to predict the winner, exact score, and whether each game would go into extra time or penalties.

Looking at the results, the AIs agreed on the advancing teams for all four quarterfinals, giving a semifinal lineup of France, Spain, England, and Argentina. The real divergence came in the details—specific scores, extra time, and penalty predictions.

AI Unanimously Predicts France to Advance; Morocco's Dark Horse Run Unlikely to Continue

The first quarterfinal match of this World Cup is France vs. Morocco, scheduled for July 10th at 4:00 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, France has a 63% chance of winning in regular time; a draw is at 25%; Morocco's win probability is 14%. Including extra time and penalties, France's advancement probability is 79%, while Morocco's is 22%.

This is also the match where the AI models showed the least disagreement among the four quarterfinals. ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok all favored France to advance, with the only differences being whether France wins 2-0 or 2-1, and whether Morocco can find the back of the net.

Claude and Qwen both predicted a 2-0 win for France. They believe France is the team closest to a championship template in this tournament, with Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise consistently posing threats upfront, and a midfield anchored by Kanté, Tchouaméni, and Rabiot, making them more complete than Morocco on both ends. While Morocco has proven they are no ordinary dark horse, their squad depth and individual talent still make a direct confrontation with France very difficult.

DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT leaned more towards a 2-1 French victory. Their assessment is that Morocco won't be easily broken down and still has opportunities via counter-attacks, set pieces, or wide play. However, the problem lies in Morocco's ability to consistently contain France's explosive frontline for the full 90 minutes. As the game progresses into the second half, France's individual quality and substitute depth are likely to become increasingly apparent.

Overall, the AI models unanimously believe France will advance in regular time, with extra time or penalties unlikely.

AI Favors Spain; Belgium's Counter-Attack Poses the Only Variable

The second quarterfinal match is Spain vs. Belgium, scheduled for July 11th at 3:00 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, Spain has a 61% chance of winning in regular time; a draw is at 25%; Belgium's win probability is 17%. Including extra time and penalties, Spain's advancement probability is 79%, while Belgium's is 22%.

All six AI models also favor Spain to advance in this match, but the divergence in predicting the match process is more pronounced than the France vs. Morocco game.

Claude, Qwen, DeepSeek, and Grok all believe Spain is likely to finish the game in regular time, with predicted scores concentrated around 2-0 or 2-1. Their core reasoning is that Spain currently boasts superior overall cohesion, with stable control, pressing, and defensive discipline, suggesting the tempo will largely be dictated by Spain.

ChatGPT's prediction is more conservative, favoring a narrow 1-0 win for Spain. It believes this won't be an open, end-to-end game but rather a contest of "system stability" versus "attacking explosiveness." Spain may not blow the score open but is more likely to secure the win through possession control, wide-play variations, or a single set-piece opportunity.

The only model predicting extra time and penalties is Gemini. It forecasts a 1-1 draw in regular time, no change in extra time, and Spain advancing via penalties. The key to this prediction is that if Belgium can score first on a counter-attack, Spain could be dragged into a more grueling, tightly contested battle.

The Match with the Most AI Divergence; Haaland is England's Biggest Problem

The third quarterfinal match is Norway vs. England, scheduled for July 12th at 5:00 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, Norway has a 23% chance of winning in regular time; a draw is at 27%; England's win probability is 53%. Including extra time and penalties, Norway's advancement probability is 36%, while England's is 66%.

Haaland's presence makes this knockout match the one most likely to produce an upset among the four quarterfinals. Although all six AIs ultimately cast their advancement votes for England, the predictions were noticeably less certain than the previous two matches. Norway's 2-1 victory over Brazil in the last round means it's no longer a question of "if they can cause an upset," but rather that they just completed one. More importantly, a player like Haaland doesn't need his team to dominate the game; just one chance could be enough to put England in trouble.

Qwen, DeepSeek, and Grok believe England can likely win 2-1 in regular time. England has better squad depth, with Bellingham, Kane, Saka, and Foden all capable of deciding a game. In contrast, Norway's attack relies more heavily on the connection between Haaland and Ødegaard. Once that link is cut, Norway's attacking threat diminishes significantly.

However, Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT clearly hedged their bets with extra time. Claude sees England potentially winning narrowly in regular time or being dragged into extra time by Norway. Gemini predicts a 2-2 draw in regular time, with England securing a dramatic extra-time winner thanks to their bench depth. ChatGPT predicts a 1-1 draw in 90 minutes, followed by a 2-1 England win in extra time.

AI Favors Argentina to Advance; Switzerland Could Drag the Match to Penalties

The fourth quarterfinal match is Argentina vs. Switzerland, scheduled for July 12th at 9:00 AM Beijing time. According to predict.fun data, Argentina has a 58% chance of winning in regular time; a draw is at 28%; Switzerland's win probability is 17%. Including extra time and penalties, Argentina's advancement probability is 74%, while Switzerland's is 27%.

The AIs unanimously agree that Argentina will advance in this match. Unlike the predictions for France and Spain, which leaned more towards "superior team dominance," Argentina vs. Switzerland is seen more as a game of patience.

Qwen and Gemini offered the most optimistic predictions, both favoring a 2-0 win for Argentina in regular time. Argentina's comeback from 2-0 down against Egypt to win 3-2 in the last round seems to have revitalized the team's form and morale. Against a Swiss side not known for explosive attacking power, Argentina has a chance to settle the match within 90 minutes if they minimize defensive errors.

DeepSeek and Grok are more cautious, leaning towards a 2-1 victory for Argentina. Switzerland has a solid defensive organization and strong game discipline, making them difficult to break down easily. However, their lack of sustained attacking pressure means that if Argentina scores first, Switzerland will find it hard to drag the game back into their preferred rhythm for an extended period.

Claude and ChatGPT are the ones anticipating extra time and penalties. Claude believes opponents like Switzerland can easily force Argentina into a tough battle, with the game potentially ending 1-1 and being decided by penalties. ChatGPT directly predicts an Argentine penalty shootout victory, suggesting Switzerland has the capability to turn the match into a low-scoring, attritional affair, forcing a final showdown over goalkeeper saves and spot-kick quality.

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