CLARITY法案倒计时25天：若8月休会前未通关，加密市场将如何？
Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: 秦晓峰 (@QinXiaofeng 888 )
The highly anticipated CLARITY (Digital Asset Market Transparency Act) has, unsurprisingly, been further delayed. Senator Cynthia Lummis previously stated that negotiators expected to finalize a compromise text around July 4 (US Independence Day) and "advance in July," but progress has been significantly lagging.
Now, with the Senate's August 10 recess approaching, the window is rapidly closing: the bill must clear a 60-vote threshold in the Senate (requiring at least 7 Democratic defections), reconcile with the Senate Agriculture Committee's version, merge with the House bill, and receive the President's signature—all within the next 25 working days. The timeline is extremely tight.
If this pre-August recess window is missed, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year will further decrease. In fact, data from the prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of passage this year is only 40%; Galaxy Digital has also lowered its 2026 passage probability to 50%.
1. Latest Review of CLARITY Act Progress
The CLARITY Act is a landmark cryptocurrency market structure legislation pushed by the US Congress. It aims to define the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, provide a non-security path for decentralized tokens, and require registration and anti-money laundering obligations for digital commodity intermediaries.
On July 17, 2025, the House passed HR 3633, introduced by French Hill, with 294 votes in favor and 134 against, including over 70 Democratic votes. On May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill with a 15-9 vote (13 Republicans + 2 Democrats supporting). On June 1, 2026, the CLARITY Act was officially placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar (Calendar No. 423), qualifying for full consideration.
However, progress on the CLARITY Act in June was not smooth. On June 9, negotiations broke down over ethics provisions related to the President's crypto holdings, directly causing some Democratic lawmakers to soften their stance or impose additional conditions, slowing the bill's momentum toward floor debate. On June 10, the White House met with police and prosecutor groups. Subsequently, a stalemate emerged in the enforcement battle around Section 604 (developer protection provision) of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. If unresolved, law enforcement groups may lobby against the bill, and Democratic lawmakers could vote no on the grounds of "insufficient consumer protection/crime fighting."
Simply put, the former is a "political/ethics hurdle," and the latter is an "enforcement/security red line." Together, they represent the final two major obstacles for the CLARITY Act before "clearing" the Senate. If they cannot be resolved, it will be difficult to secure 60 votes and a final text, making it impossible to complete the legislation before the August 10 recess. These two negotiations directly impeded the CLARITY Act's final advancement, leading to the failure to meet the July 4 target and causing the overall progress to stall. Negotiations are ongoing, but time is extremely short.
Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel, stated that for the bill to pass in 2026, "it likely needs Senate passage by the end of July, ideally in June," and warned that if the Senate misses the recess, the outlook will deteriorate significantly.
However, the market holds little hope for the bill passing this year. Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn lowered his prediction for the bill's passage in 2026 from 75% to 60% on June 5, citing increasing time constraints on the Senate agenda. Data from the prediction market Polymarket shows the probability of passage this year is only 40%.
2. What Happens to Crypto if the CLARITY Act Fails to Pass on Time?
According to CCN analysis, if the CLARITY Act cannot pass before the August recess, the market's most likely reaction is not a crash but a "slow bleed through premium products." In fact, underperformance in cryptocurrencies throughout June already indicates the market is repricing legislative uncertainty. (Odaily note: 'Premium products' here mainly refer to various spot ETFs.)
Data shows that in June, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of approximately $4.5 billion, equivalent to about 77,000 BTC redeemed. This marks the largest single-month net outflow since the product's launch in January 2024, surpassing the previous record from February 2025 (about $3.56 billion), setting an all-time worst monthly record.
In fact, XRP is likely one of the most directly and significantly impacted assets, as the bill would permanently solidify its commodity classification, eliminating the risk of reversible institutional interpretations. A prolonged delay or failure could see XRP lose some of its "regulatory clarity premium."
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, expects an XRP target price of $8, contingent on the Senate fully passing the relevant bill and ETF inflows of $4 billion to $8 billion. JPMorgan predicts that if the bill passes, XRP ETFs could see inflows of $4.3 billion to $8.4 billion in their first year. Data indicates that since the launch of the XRP spot ETF in November 2025, cumulative net inflows are about $1.41 billion, with 84% from retail investors; institutional inflows are still awaiting clear regulatory signals.
For Bitcoin, which was classified as a commodity via a joint SEC/CFTC interpretation in March 2026, the CLARITY Act's primary role is to permanently codify this reversible decision into federal law. Even if the bill fails or is significantly delayed, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative remains relatively robust, and it is less directly impacted.
The impact on ETH is similar to Bitcoin. Ethereum was also classified as a commodity under the joint interpretation. Failure of the bill could lead to prolonged regulatory ambiguity for DeFi protocols, stifling innovation and capital inflows. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick estimated an ETH year-end 2026 target of $7,500 (later revised down to $4,000), contingent on the bill's passage.
Kristin Smith, Executive Director of the Solana Policy Institute, stated that many asset allocators are actively exploring digital asset investments but are holding back capital until regulatory guidelines are clarified. The same principle applies to institutional DeFi, where projects are currently on hold awaiting the enactment of Section 604.
3. What Lies Ahead?
Time is running out for the CLARITY Act to pass. The following scenarios are possible:
- Scenario 1: Passage before the August recess. This would be the biggest catalyst, potentially leading to a significant price rebound, especially for XRP and related ETFs.
- Scenario 2: Delay to 2027. This is the least desirable outcome for the market. The "slow bleed" process would lengthen, and institutional capital would remain on the sidelines.
- Scenario 3: Failure and deferral to the next Congress. The CLARITY Act is currently in the 119th Congress. If it fails to complete Senate floor votes, reconciliation, and final passage before the August 2026 recess, the entire process cannot conclude within this congressional term. When the new Congress (the 120th, 2027-2028) begins, the bill must be re-introduced and go through the entire process again, including committee review and floor debate.
The CLARITY Act is at a critical "stalled at the goal line" stage. Technically, it is on the Senate calendar, but political negotiations, the time window, and cross-party support remain the biggest hurdles.
However, as Vincent Chok, CEO of First Digital, stated: "The very fact that the CLARITY Act has reached the Senate floor vote demonstrates the US is closer than ever to resolving regulatory ambiguity... A successful vote will accelerate this process, but failure won't necessarily stop it. In fact, a delay in the US framework would create a sense of urgency and extend the window for setting global standards, positioning the US as a de facto global digital asset hub."
