How much longer until the end of the crypto bear market?

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010)

According to Coinglass data, from May 19 to today (July 3), the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in "negative" territory for 46 consecutive days, setting a record for the "longest consecutive negative streak." Previously, the index recorded a negative premium for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, which was the longest "consecutive negative" record since the indicator's launch, surpassing the approximately 30-day consecutive negative premium period during last year's "October 11 crash."

Looking at BTC and ETH, which have briefly fallen below key price points like $58,000 and $1,600, the exact timing for the end of the bear market remains unclear. For many, the waiting is particularly agonizing.

An Overview of the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index

The Biggest Trigger for BTC's Plunge: Strategy Sells BTC to Survive, Expanding the Loss-Making Group

In late May and early June, Strategy, the largest BTC treasury company and leading cryptocurrency concept stock, sold BTC for the first time in three years. This transaction, involving only 32 BTC, quickly sparked panic in the crypto market, acting like the straw that broke the camel's back. Prices of mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and SOL subsequently plummeted.

Compounded by factors like continuous net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and ongoing capital drain from the crypto market, the shadow of the crypto bear market once again hangs over everyone in the industry.

The Bear Market's Onset: BTC Records Worst Single Week Since 2022 in Early June

In the first week of June, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, recording its worst single-week performance since the FTX exchange collapse in 2022. In the nearly seven days leading up to June 7, Bitcoin accumulated a decline of 16%, retracing over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.

In terms of data at the time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with cumulative outflows totaling approximately $5.5 billion. Additionally, Bitcoin's price fell below the widely regarded key support level of the "200-week moving average," further weakening market confidence.

Paul Howard, Senior Director at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market conditions as a "silent bear market," believing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is a crucial confirmation signal that the market has entered a bearish phase.

Although BTC subsequently rebounded slightly to around $65,000, several market analysts warned at the time that the rebound might be unsustainable, and Bitcoin may not have hit the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market still has a considerable distance from the "true bottom."

From the author's perspective, if the market still held hope for a significant BTC rebound in May, Strategy's action of selling BTC to survive directly shattered people's last illusions, symbolically pulling back the curtain for the "bear market confirmation."

Bear Market Continues: Many Institutions Predicting the End of the Bear Market Are Proven Wrong

On June 11, crypto research institution CryptoQuant stated in a post that Bitcoin might form a bottom around $53,600, which is the current realized price of Bitcoin, representing the average on-chain cost basis for all market participants. The report pointed out that in previous major bear market cycles, Bitcoin typically bottoms out around or slightly below its realized price.

On June 12, BIT released its latest weekly report, "Will the FIFA World Cup Mark the End of the Bitcoin Bear Market?" It argued that Bitcoin's current bear market trajectory is broadly consistent with its outlook from early February 2026, and the previously predicted A-B-C corrective structure has entered its final phase: After the A-wave decline to the $60,000-$69,000 range, Bitcoin rebounded to the $80,000-$90,000 range before peaking around $83,000, with the rebound momentum gradually weakening.

BIT noted that the current Fear and Greed Index has approached historically low levels of significant reference value, still showing some similarity to the bear market bottom structure in 2022. It maintains its previous view that the quiet summer trading period during the 2026 World Cup could mark the final phase of this Bitcoin bear market.

On June 17, crypto research firm K33 stated that the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders reached an all-time high, suggesting the bear market may be nearing its end. It emphasized that the reactivation activity of old coins was notably subdued in 2026. As of June 6, only 218,421 Bitcoins had been reactivated, indicating a significant reduction in on-chain selling pressure. In contrast, 1.18 million Bitcoins had been reactivated by the same period in 2024. K33 believes that the decline in old coin activity suggests a reduced willingness of long-term holders to sell, with patient participants continuing to absorb supply.

However, the further decline in BTC soon shattered these illusions, and the bear market's march continued.

Bear Market Indicators: STRC De-pegs from $100, Losses Widen for Long-term BTC and ETH Holders

On June 18, after falling below $95 at the beginning of the month, the price of STRC, a preferred stock issued by Strategy, dropped below $90, closing at $89, recording its lowest daily closing price since its IPO and its lowest dividend-adjusted closing price since November of last year.

Subsequently, STRC continued to fall, persistently de-pegging.

On June 26, STRC’s pre-market price briefly fell to $73, hitting an all-time low. Market focus then shifted to two things: first, the ex-dividend date on June 30, where eligible holders would receive a dividend of $0.48 per share on July 15; second, the resetting of the monthly dividend rate, with STRC's effective yield near 15%, leading investors to expect Strategy to raise the dividend rate from 11.50% to at least 12% or 12.50%.

Three days later, on June 29, Strategy officially announced a $1 billion digital credit security buyback program and launched a board-approved "up to $1.25 billion BTC Realization Plan." Its dollar reserves also increased to $2.55 billion following the implementation of various funding plans, giving it the capacity to pay interest on preferred stocks like STRC. STRC's discount crisis was temporarily resolved for the time being, with its price recovering to above $80; it is currently reported at $87.87.

Source: Strategy Official Website

However, affected by the continued decline in BTC and ETH, losses for long-term holders have further expanded.

On June 25, Bitcoin briefly fell to about $59,100, with 10.83 million BTC in a loss-making state, a scale reaching an all-time high and exceeding the previous bear market bottom peak of about 10.5 million. Long-term holders (holding for at least 155 days) held a record 14.8 million BTC (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: the total circulating supply of Bitcoin is about 20 million), with 37% of their holdings in loss. Latest data shows that the number of BTC held long-term has increased to 16.61 million BTC today, while the average cost basis has dropped to around $49,700.

Data from June 26 shows that ETH whales have fallen into losses for the first time since 2019. Even during the 2022 bear market, the largest whale holding over 100,000 ETH remained profitable. The unrealized profit ratios for the three current categories of whale groups are all negative: -0.26 for the 1,000 to 10,000 ETH range, -0.21 for the 10,000 to 100,000 ETH range, and -0.05 for the over 100,000 ETH range. This state has persisted for several weeks.

Bitcoin UTXO data from June 28 shows that the ratio of loss-making transactions to profitable transactions in the current market has fallen to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear phase of "capitulation." A similar low last occurred during the deep phase of the mid-2023 bear market when Bitcoin's price briefly fell to around $26,000.

Earlier, due to the continuous price decline, ETH's market cap briefly fell below $185 billion, being overtaken by USDT. With the price rebounding above $1,700, ETH's market cap is currently reported at $207 billion.

In summary, events like STRC re-pegging to $100 and long-term BTC and ETH holders exiting loss-making states will be key indicators for the end of the bear market.

Predicting the End of the Bear Market: August or December?

Regarding the specific timing of the bear market's end, there is currently no mainstream consensus in the market. Here, we only use the views of some industry insiders as a reference.

Yi Lihua: July-August Might Be a Good Time to Buy the Dip

In late June, Yi Lihua, founder of TrendResearch, stated in a post that this is the third wave of decline since the October 11 crash. According to wave theory and cyclical patterns, this could be the last major drop for Bitcoin.

The market is most focused on Bitcoin's bottom price this time, with main factors being the U.S. stock market and MicroStrategy. The Fed's concerns about CPI could lead to changes in expectations for rate cuts or even rate hikes, thereby triggering a continued pullback in U.S. stocks. Secondly, past bear market tails often saw black swan events or implosions, which have not yet occurred in this cycle, and thus require close monitoring.

Based on Bitcoin's high of $126,000, a 60% decline corresponds to $51,000, and a 66% decline corresponds to $43,000. In any case, July to August should be the final window and the best time to buy the dip, potentially the most worthwhile opportunity in the next three years.

Jiang Zhuoer: BTC Will Bottom at $42,000-$44,000 Between October and December

On June 25, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of LakeBTC mining pool, posted predicting that this BTC bear market would bottom out at $44,016 on October 31. Integrating the pattern where mNAV leads coin prices by 6 months to the bottom, he adjusted the bottoming time window to October to December 2026, with a bottom price range of $42,000 to $44,000.

He pointed out that the logic behind this is that the mNAV (Market Cap / Net Asset Value, calculated as stock price over BTC value per share) of Strategy's common stock MSTR has dropped to 0.72, approaching the low of 0.7 seen on May 11, 2022, in the previous bull cycle. Based on recent market sentiment events like the significant de-pegging of STRC, this can currently be predicted as the lowest area for mNAV in this cycle. However, the price of BTC is not at its lowest when mNAV is at its lowest. In the previous cycle, when mNAV bottomed at 0.7 on May 11, 2022, BTC’s price was $31,017, while BTC bottomed at $15,476 on November 21, 2022, when mNAV was 1.2 – a gap of 6 months.

BTC Price Indicators: 4-Year Moving Average, 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap

According to Coinglass data, the BTC 4-Year Moving Average index showed that from June 25 to June 30, affected by BTC briefly falling below $59,000, the index briefly dropped to 0.95. It has since recovered to around 1 as BTC rebounded above $61,000.

According to the BTC 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap, the current BTC price is roughly flat with the 200-week moving average and has been consistently below it since June 23, potentially suggesting a price bottom.

Additionally, returning to the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index mentioned at the beginning of the article, it currently remains at -0.123%. Based on previous positive ranges, BTC’s price would need to rebound to around $77,000 for the index to have a chance of turning positive.

In summary, without strong external favorable stimuli, this bear market is expected to last at least another 2-3 months. Late September to early October will be the critical window period for determining whether BTC can rebound.

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