加密熊市创业指南第三弹：预测市场AI跟单Bot
- Core Insight: With the surge in prediction market trading volume (exceeding $25.7 billion in March) and platforms like Polymarket opening their APIs, AI-powered copy trading bots for prediction markets are emerging as a new entrepreneurial track. By following high-win-rate players to bet on event outcomes, they profit differently from the zero-sum game of Meme coins.
- Key Elements:
- Approximately 31% of Polymarket players are profitable, among which skilled winners account for 3.14%. For instance, user Theo4 tops the list with a profit of $22.05 million, indicating a clear path to monetizing expertise.
- The core competitiveness of AI copy trading bots for prediction markets lies in three major functions: screening high-win-rate addresses, quickly executing follow-up strategies, and efficiently filtering betting events to meet user copy-trading needs.
- Existing products include Polybot (automated airdrop betting), Kreo (individually developed, with over 13,000 users), and Chance (aggregating platforms like Kalshi), though users should be mindful of usage risks.
- The objective risks of prediction market copy trading exist, including event reversals and upsets. Unlike the capital gaming of Meme coins, the counterparties here are opposing users rather than project teams.
- With the approaching World Cup and other sports events as well as political events, prediction market copy trading bots may experience a surge, creating a "selling shovels" profit model.
Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )
The Meme coin craze is gradually fading, and in its place comes the wave of prediction market trading.
In March this year, prediction market trading volume grew over 10% year-on-year, surpassing $25.7 billion. Besides geopolitical bets driven by the US-Iran situation, sports events like the NCAA and cryptocurrency price fluctuation bets have also contributed significantly to this track. Meanwhile, Polymarket's open CLI, Skill, AI Agent payments and other applications and API interfaces have also paved the way for AI Agents to operate in prediction markets. Thanks to Polymarket's currently open frontend interface, its recently updated V2 API, and various profit rankings, perhaps the next hot entrepreneurial track in the market will be Prediction Market AI Copy Trading Bots.
Odaily Planet Daily reminds users that the following content is only for sharing opinions and does not constitute investment advice or endorsements. Please be aware of the risks associated with using tools or the risk of losing principal from copied trading investments.
Why Do We Need Prediction Market AI Copy Trading Bots?
From a profitability perspective, according to research data from a previous article "10 Truths About Prediction Markets: Only 3.14% of Polymarket's 1.72 Million Addresses Are 'Real Winners'", as of last December, among 1.72 million Polymarket addresses, profitable players accounted for over 32%. By April this year, a survey by prediction market data platform Parity showed that Polymarket's user count increased to 2.43 million, but the proportion of profitable players remained as high as 31%, among which:
- Accounts profiting over $1 million accounted for 0.0043%, totaling 104 people;
- Accounts profiting between $100,000 and $1 million accounted for 0.05%, totaling 1,165 people;
- Accounts profiting between $10,000 and $100,000 accounted for 0.4%, totaling 9,654 people;
- Accounts profiting between $1,000 and $10,000 accounted for 2.23%, totaling 54,127 people;
- Accounts profiting between $100 and $1,000 accounted for 5.24%, totaling 127,342 people;
- Accounts profiting between $0 and $100 accounted for 23.09%, totaling 561,422 people.
According to Polymarket's official leaderboard, user Theo4 tops the all-time profit list with $22.05 million in profits. Previously, he had bet $8.5 million aggressively on the 2024 election, earning over $13.7 million in profits.
It's clear that although the wealth-generating effect isn't as staggering as the Meme coin craze, prediction markets are indeed a path to gold.
As the research conclusion from the article "10 Truths About Prediction Markets: Only 3.14% of Polymarket's 1.72 Million Addresses Are 'Real Winners'" states, there are about 3.14% "skill-based winners" in prediction markets. Relying on their professional skills, news sensitivity, and other abilities, they repeatedly select the final factual outcome in betting events, earning direct rewards for their cognition.
Fengdubiying, previously interviewed by us and dubbed "the first person in the Polymarket Chinese community," who achieved over 220x returns in 25 days, once said, "Polymarket doesn't restrict copy trading. You can clearly see the final winners and top holders in betting events."
Moreover, unlike Meme coins which emphasize "copy fast, sell smart," betting copy trading in projects like Polymarket doesn't require worrying about becoming "exit liquidity" for whales or leaders. Everyone is betting on accurate predictions of event outcomes, and the counterparty isn't the event initiator or the prediction market platform, but rather the "opponents holding Yes/No chips" with opposing views.
Of course, unlike the risk of Dev rug pulls in Meme coins, the risks associated with prediction market copy trading are also objective. A game, an event, a political election can be filled with many probability fluctuations, and upsets, event reversals, or dark horse victories are all possible. A high profit volume and win rate do not mean every copy trade is a guaranteed win.
What is the Core Competitiveness of Prediction Market AI Copy Trading Bots?
Having discussed the possibilities and market demand for Prediction Market AI Copy Trading Bots, the next step is to evaluate the specific functions of the tools and the criteria for judging their pros and cons.
In the author's view, the core functions of a Prediction Market AI Copy Trading Bot lie in the following three aspects:
First, a sufficient pool of "high-win-rate addresses." Aside from profit rankings across different timeframes (monthly, weekly) and different tracks (politics, sports, esports), Prediction Market AI Copy Trading Bots are not much different from Meme coin copy trading bots. The key remains a set of cross-verified, high-win-rate prediction market addresses or professional players. "If you lack the insight, you must follow." The prerequisite for this saying is that there is someone worthy of following. In this regard, data filtering is paramount, and accurately tagging these high-win-rate players with referenceable labels is indispensable.
Second, a fast copy trading strategy. Whether it's mirroring a high-win-rate player's bottom-fishing buys, their timely sells, or waiting for event outcome determination, there are still cost differences in prediction market copy trading. Therefore, copy trading speed is also a core function of the tool. However, Prediction Market AI Copy Trading Bots can also formulate different sell strategies for users to choose from.
Third, efficient betting event screening. Just as the key to succeeding in the complex Meme coin market is picking the "golden dog," the essential skill in prediction markets is the ability to screen through a multitude of events to select targets with short timeframes, moderate odds, and sufficient liquidity. This is a function that copy trading tools must consider. Of course, being able to filter by total bet amount, high-win-rate player tags, settlement rule explanations, and more would be even better.
Brief Overview of Existing Prediction Market Copy Trading Products: Polybot, Kreo, Chance
Polybot: An Automated Betting Tool Born for Airdrops
Official Account: https://x.com/TradePolyBot
This tool's main concept is "serving Polymarket token POLY airdrop interactions," allowing users to set up automated trading via the Bot, achieving the effect of "configure an arbitrage strategy in one minute, run automatically 24/7."
Official promotional image
Kreo: A Copy Trading Tool from an Individual Developer
Official Account: https://x.com/kreoapp
Launched by wuli, a former Xiaomi engineer and independent developer wuli, it boasts speed and multiple features. According to the latest tweets from the official account, the current version includes features such as: a copy trade task manager; customizable profit/loss sharing materials in video and image format; batch editing of copy trade tasks; real-time display of crypto up/down markets; prevention of duplicate copy trades; automatic copy trade filtering for league sports events; viewing the top 50 bettors for crypto up/down events. According to information on the official Bot interface, the tool has already surpassed 13,000 users.
Official Bot Page
Chance: A Prediction Market Aggregation Platform
Official Account: https://x.com/Chance_
The main advantage of this platform is that it aggregates multiple prediction market platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun, and also offers some analysis features like smart money tracking and a calendar. Notably, this platform is currently in an early test version and may contain bugs or other risks. Odaily Planet Daily reminds users to use it cautiously, avoid investing excessive funds, and be mindful of security risks.
Official website trading tool page
Official website page
Conclusion: In Both Bull and Bear Markets, Those Selling Shovels Always Make Money
Once upon a time, under the Meme coin craze driven by pump.fun, copy trading bots like gmgn.ai, abot, and Axiom made a killing. Now, in the context of the "big year" for prediction markets, prediction market copy trading bots are poised to experience a surge driven by a series of popular sports events like the World Cup and political events. If any project teams need media publicity or business cooperation, feel free to contact Odaily Planet Daily. Let's all contribute to building the crypto world together.
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