Trump's remarks sparked market volatility, with crypto-related stocks and BTC surging in response

After the U.S. stock market closed this morning, cryptocurrency-related stocks collectively strengthened. Circle (CRCL) rose 6.24%, Bitmine gained 8.29%, but Strategy (MSTR) saw its share price remain virtually flat due to news of another "coin sale."

At the same time, Bitcoin's own performance was equally impressive—rallying from around $62,000 to briefly approach the $65,000 mark.

The person behind this broad rally in crypto-related concepts is once again the U.S. president who frequently influences the market with his remarks: Donald Trump.

1. A Single Statement Triggers a Broad Rally

The cause of the event is quite simple.

With the recent official launch of the "Trump Accounts," market sentiment regarding a prolonged bull run in U.S. stocks has once again heated up. When a reporter asked whether the Trump Accounts might potentially include Bitcoin in the future, Trump replied:

"It could happen."

This one vague statement, devoid of any specific policy commitments, was enough to send the Bitcoin market and U.S. crypto-concept stocks soaring instantly. This reflects the direct impact of Trump's public remarks on market sentiment—there is no need for concrete policy implementation; a mere statement can trigger a market repricing. BTC rapidly climbed from around $62,000 to nearly $65,000, and crypto-concept stocks rose in tandem. The market is extremely sensitive to any signal related to "officially recognized cryptocurrencies," and Trump is precisely the one who knows how to push this button most effectively.

But while the rally is certainly exciting, the more pertinent question is: How long can such a speech-driven market trend last?

2. On-Chain Data Indicates: The Money Hasn't Arrived Yet

Although the rally is gratifying, we should also observe whether there is any genuine capital inflow. The reality is: the president's remarks have not yet translated into real money.

According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's capital flow over the past 30 days remains in a net outflow state. While market sentiment has warmed somewhat due to Trump's statement, capital has not yet entered the market on a large scale. The price increase is more driven by the redeployment of funds already within the market and short covering, rather than new long-term capital building positions at lower levels.

This is an important distinction. A rally driven by capital inflows is usually more sustained and healthier; a rally driven by sentiment and presidential remarks tends to come quickly and fade just as fast. The current situation appears closer to the latter.

3. The Four-Year Cycle Law: How Far to the Bear Market Bottom?

Besides the lack of on-chain capital inflow, another indicator warranting caution is the MVRV ratio.

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is one of the most commonly used cycle judgment tools in the crypto space. Simply put, it measures the multiple of Bitcoin's current market price relative to its "realized value" (the average price of all Bitcoins at the time of their last movement). When MVRV falls below 1, it means the overall market price of Bitcoin has dropped below its average cost basis—entering the "below fair value" zone. Historically, during the bottom of every major bear market for Bitcoin, MVRV has dipped below 1.

Just last Tuesday, Bitcoin's MVRV briefly fell to its lowest point this year, near 1.1. This indicates the market is very close to the cycle bottom range, but has not yet truly "broken below 1." With the price rebound in recent days, MVRV has recovered to around 1.2.

From the perspective of cyclical laws, it is currently impossible to conclude whether this price rebound is a technical recovery during the bear market bottom-building phase, or the start of a trend reversal. If MVRV subsequently declines again and breaks below 1, historical patterns suggest this often corresponds to a clearer cycle bottom signal; however, as of now, this signal has not yet appeared.

4. Remarks Being Institutionalized: More of an Alarm in the Short Term

Finally, let's discuss a deeper issue—Trump's "speech-driven market pump" is transitioning from a personal behavior into an institutionalized market force.

The launch of the "Trump Accounts" marks the first direct connection between the White House and a public policy tool explicitly linked to U.S. stock prices. This account ties the U.S. government, newborn welfare benefits, the S&P 500 index, and the entire U.S. stock market together. Now, Trump is adding a hint of cryptocurrency to this mix.

What does this mean? It means that high-level statements' impact on market pricing is becoming more normalized. A single sentence from the president can directly influence the pricing of U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, and he happens to be someone who knows this well and takes delight in it.

For retail investors, this is not necessarily a "buy stocks/crypto with the president to make money" entry signal. On the contrary, it looks more like a sign requiring high alert: in a mechanism where others are responsible for pumping the market, and you are responsible for taking the other side, you need to clarify whether you are a shareholder or the fuel providing liquidity for others.

Short-term rhetoric can create temporary euphoria, but it cannot replace fundamental repairs and genuine capital inflows. When the fervor fades, those who chased prices at the highs often find themselves the ones paying for others' profits.

5. Final Thoughts

Trump's one sentence—"It could happen"—pushed BTC close to $65,000 overnight. This kind of market action is thrilling, but also very dangerous.

Considering on-chain data, cycle indicators, and the trend of institutionalizing speech's impact on the market, the current market still harbors uncertainty.

For investors looking to participate in Bitcoin and crypto-concept stock trading, the BIT platform offers genuine trading channels covering cryptocurrencies like BTC as well as crypto-concept stocks like CRCL and MSTR. You can use USDT for nearly instant deposits 24/7, enabling prompt execution during market volatility. But no matter which tool you use to trade, remember one principle: in a market where others are responsible for the pump, don't easily turn yourself into someone else's liquidity.

Disclaimer

This article is a contributed piece from a guest author. The market observations, data analysis, and judgments contained herein represent the personal views of the author and do not constitute the official stance or research opinion of the BIT platform, nor do they constitute any investment advice or solicitation for investment. BIT makes no express or implied guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of this article's content. Prices and data mentioned herein are as of the time of publication and may become invalid due to market changes. Cryptocurrencies and related securities are highly volatile assets, and investment involves the risk of principal loss; past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should independently determine whether to participate in trading and should consult independent professional advisors when necessary.