Bitcoin's Five-Wave Adjustment Nears Completion, HYPE Support Zone Presents Opportunity | Special Analysis

This week, BTC is in the final stage of a five-wave corrective structure. The formation of "Endpoint 44" will determine the short-term direction — if it is above 58,110, the probability of a rebound is high; if it is below without a bullish divergence, caution is needed for a further breakdown. We have preset Plans A, B, and C. Medium-term short positions remain at 20%, while short-term positions are kept at 30% to seek spread opportunities.

Meanwhile, HYPE has entered a five-wave correction from its high of 76.94, currently in the 55-56 wave. If "Endpoint 56" forms a double bottom above the previous low, the likelihood of a rebound is significant; after stabilization in the support zone, long positions can be cautiously initiated, with position size strictly controlled below 30%.

For the complete structural analysis, quantitative model signal interpretation, and specific operational plans, please refer to the full text of this week's review.

Key Trading Insights for This Week

• BTC hourly trend structure analysis (detailed in Part 1)
• BTC weekly forecast and medium & short-term trading strategies (detailed in Part 2)
• HYPE hourly trend structure analysis (detailed in Part 3)
• HYPE weekly forecast and short-term trading strategy (detailed in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategy and Key Views

• BTC short-term trading results: Bitcoin completed two short-term short trades last week (1x leverage), successfully achieving a gain of approximately 6.21% (detailed in Part 5).
• Market validation of BTC trend forecast: In last week's review, we predicted (as shown in Figure 1) that if "Endpoint 41" failed to hold above the lower rail of the channel, the market would likely retest the previous support level of 59,100 USD. The overall market movement has validated this view.

I. In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly Trend Structure

Figure 1: Bitcoin _4-hour K-line chart

① As shown in Figure 1: Last week's review clearly pointed out that the (40-41) wave was a retest confirmation after breaking below the lower rail of the short-term ascending channel (blue channel). If "Endpoint 41" failed to stabilize back above the lower rail, the trend would weaken, increasing the probability of a retest of the previous low of 59,100 USD. The chart shows that last week's adjustment found short-term support only after hitting a low of 58,110 USD.

② Analyzing from the 4-hour timeframe, the oversold rebound that began from the June 6 low of 59,100 USD has confirmed its end at "Endpoint 39" (67,300 USD).

Figure 2: Bitcoin _4-hour chart

③ As shown in Figure 2: Starting from "Endpoint 39," the market has entered a clear 5-wave corrective structure (i.e., Endpoint 39 to Endpoint 44). The (43-44) corrective wave is currently underway.

The final position of "Endpoint 44" will be the key to short-term direction:

• If "Endpoint 44" is above 58,110 USD: A relatively strong technical rebound is expected to be triggered, likely followed by a wide-range box consolidation.
• If "Endpoint 44" is below 58,110 USD with a bullish momentum divergence: A rebound opportunity still exists, but its strength requires observation.
• If "Endpoint 44" is below 58,110 USD without a bullish momentum divergence: After a short-term adjustment, the price may break down further.

④ Summary: Based on our proprietary quantitative model analysis, the probability of the first two scenarios is relatively higher.

II. Bitcoin Weekly Forecast and Trading Strategy

1. BTC Weekly Trend Forecast

Core View for This Week: Focus on the formation of "Endpoint 44." If the first scenario mentioned above occurs, consider light short-term long positions.

2. Key Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Zone: 60,900 ~ 62,300 USD area (key previous high-low level)
• Second Resistance Zone: Near 65,500 USD (key previous resistance area)
• Third Resistance Zone: 67,300 ~ 69,500 USD area (key previous resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels

• First Support Level: Near 58,100 USD (key previous support level)
• Second Support Level: Near 55,000 USD (key previous support level)

4. This Week's Operational Strategy (Excluding Unexpected News Impact)

① Medium-term Strategy

Figure 3: Bitcoin _Daily K-line chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming a shift in market structure to a bearish dominance pattern. Medium-term short positions are tentatively kept at around 20%.

② Short-term Strategy

Utilize 30% of the position, set stop-loss orders, and seek "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using the 30-minute / 60-minute timeframe as the operating cycle).

③ Three Operational Plans (A / B / C)

To dynamically respond to complex market developments in short-term operations, we have pre-formulated three specific operational plans: A, B, and C.

Plan A: Tentative Long Position in Strong Support Zone (Endpoint 44 above 58,110 USD)

• Entry: If the scenario above occurs, combined with quantitative model signals, establish a long position of around 15%.
• Risk Control: Set the initial stop-loss level.
• Exit: When the rebound approaches a key resistance level, combined with quantitative model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

Plan B: Light Short Position in Resistance Zone

• Entry: If the price rebounds to the 60,900 ~ 62,300 USD area and shows signs of resistance, combined with a quantitative model top signal, establish an initial short position of around 15%.
• Risk Control: Set the initial stop-loss level.
• Exit: When the price adjusts near a key support level, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

Plan C: Increase Short Position in Strong Resistance Zone

• Add Position: If the price continues to rebound to near the 65,000 USD or even 67,300 USD resistance and shows signs of stalling, combined with a quantitative model top signal, consider adding to the short position, keeping total short positions within 30%.
• Risk Control: Set the initial stop-loss level.
• Exit: When the price falls to a key support level, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profits.

III. HYPE Hourly Trend Structure Analysis

Figure 4: HYPE_4-hour K-line chart

① As shown in Figure 4, HYPE began its correction from the June 16 high of 76.94 USD (Endpoint 51). On the 4-hour timeframe, it can be subdivided into a five-wave corrective structure: waves 51-52, 52-53, 53-54, 54-55, and 55-56. The price is currently undergoing the 55-56 corrective wave, and the position of "Endpoint 56" is the key to the near-term price trend.

② Scenarios for the End of the Short-term Correction:

• If "Endpoint 56" is higher than "Endpoint 54," it forms a "double bottom" pattern, likely ending the current correction, with a high probability of a rebound from "Endpoint 56."
• If "Endpoint 56" is lower than "Endpoint 54" but forms a bullish momentum divergence, the probability of the correction ending is also high, accompanied by a rebound.

③ Scenarios for the Continuation of the Short-term Correction:

• If "Endpoint 56" is lower than "Endpoint 54" without a bullish momentum divergence, the current correction may extend into a seven-wave corrective structure.

④ Based on our proprietary quantitative model analysis, the probability of the first scenario occurring is significant.

IV. HYPE Weekly Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy

1. HYPE Weekly Trend Forecast

Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: Near 65.5 USD
• Second Resistance Level: Near 71.5 USD

Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Near 58.5 USD
• Second Support Level: 52 ~ 54 USD area

HYPE Core View for This Week: Observe the final position and technical pattern of "Endpoint 56."

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week (Going Long at Support)

HYPE short-term trading this week should follow the strategy of "positioning on dips, avoiding chasing rallies."

Short-term Strategy: Tentatively go long after the support area stabilizes. When the HYPE price adjusts to above 58.8 USD, or deeper into the 52~54 USD support area, and shows signs of stabilization, combined with bottom signals triggered by the two major models, consider light long positions. Position size must be strictly controlled below 30%, and stop-loss discipline must be adhered to strictly.

V. Bitcoin Short-term Trade Review

Strictly following our operational plans, based on the trading signals generated by our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," we completed two short-term short trades last week, totaling a trading profit of approximately 6.21%.

1. Short-term Trade No. 1

Bitcoin Short-term Trade Details (1x Leverage):

Entry Strategy:

• When the price rebounded to near 65,500 USD and encountered resistance with signs of pressure, the K-line formed a bearish "Top Divergence" signal;
• The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a top warning signal (white dot), and the "Momentum Quantitative Model" formed a momentum top divergence signal.

Therefore, we established a 15% short position at 64,530 USD.

Exit Strategy:

• When the price fell to around 62,000 USD and stabilized, the K-line formed a "Bottom Divergence" signal;
• The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Therefore, we closed the entire position around 62,474 USD.

Summary: This trade was successful, yielding a profit of approximately 3.18%.

2. Short-term Trade No. 2

Bitcoin Short-term Trade Details (1x Leverage):

Entry Strategy:

• When the price moved to around 63,000 USD, the two momentum lines in the "Momentum Quantitative Model" approached the "zero line" and showed momentum exhaustion, followed by the first "Death Cross" pattern below the "zero line";
• Simultaneously, the "Spread Trading Model" also issued a top warning signal.

Therefore, we established a 15% short position at 62,679 USD.

Exit Strategy:

• When the price fell to around 59,000 USD and stabilized, the K-line formed a "Bottom Divergence" signal;
• The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Therefore, we closed the entire position around 60,775 USD.

Summary: This trade was successful, yielding a profit of approximately 3.03%.

Figure 5: Short-term Trade Illustration

VI. Special Notes

1. At entry: Set the initial stop-loss immediately.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous tracking: For every additional 1% profit, the stop-loss is moved up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Risk Disclaimer:

Financial markets are highly dynamic. All market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. The views, analytical models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article are solely based on personal technical analysis, intended as a personal trading journal, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market involves risks. Invest cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this content.