Bitcoin Monthly Adjustment Structure Confirmed, HYPE Presents Entry Opportunity | Special Analysis

In last week's report, we clearly stated that $60,000 was a relay node in this adjustment, not the bottom—a judgment directly validated by the market on June 5th when the price broke below this level, hitting a low of $59,100. This confirms the monthly-level a-b-c three-wave adjustment structure that began from the October 2025 high of $126,200, with the market currently in the C-wave decline phase. The cumulative adjustment time is less than 35 days, indicating the structure is far from complete.

This week, we will focus on tracking the rebound height and resistance levels. The two key pressure zones of $65,000 and $69,500~$70,500 will serve as core observation windows for judging subsequent trends.

For HYPE, the top signal warned about last week was also confirmed, with the price retracing a maximum of 27% from $75.87. This week, it enters a short-term layout phase within the support zone. Strategically, the medium-term outlook remains bearish, awaiting an opportunity to add positions after a rebound.

Summary of Core Trading Views for This Week:

• Multi-timeframe structure analysis of BTC (details in Part 1)

• Price forecast and medium/short-term trading strategies for BTC this week (details in Part 2)

• Hourly-level structure analysis of HYPE (details in Part 3)

• Price forecast and short-term trading strategies for HYPE this week (details in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:

• BTC Price Forecast Validation: Last week's article pointed out that Bitcoin would maintain a volatile downward trend after a weak rebound, with the short-term strategy focused on "selling on rallies." Current market movements have validated our previous forecast.

• HYPE Price Forecast Validation: Last week's article indicated that HYPE faced multiple resistances near $75.87, making it highly probable to form a short-term top there. Current market movements are highly consistent with our forecast.

1. Bitcoin Multi-Timeframe Structure Analysis

BTC Daily Level Structure Analysis (Based on Price Action After the February 6, 2026 Low)

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 1

1. Dynamic Analysis of Bitcoin Market Structure Based on Elliott Wave Theory (Revisiting Key Turning Points Since the October 2025 High Adjustment):

As shown in Figure 1, after Bitcoin hit an all-time high of approximately $126,200 in October 2025, the market entered a deep adjustment phase. By early February 2026, the price touched a low of $60,000 on February 6th, initiating a rebound lasting about 90 days. During this period, the market engaged in intense debate over whether $60,000 was the end of this adjustment or a relay low. Our analysis consistently leaned towards the latter, viewing it as an intermediate low, not the finish line. The rally starting from the February 6th low was considered a rebound within a larger correction, not a trend reversal, and subsequent adjustments would still breach the $60,000 level.

Below is a review of the evolution based on the technical analysis framework:

① Initial Classification (Mid-February): Corrective Rebound within Wave C (i.e., C-2 Rebound Wave)

In the weekly review on February 16th, we explicitly stated that the rally from the February 6th low was, by nature, a "C-2 wave" oversold rebound within the larger "Wave C" correction. This would be followed by a "C-3 wave" decline, where breaking below $60,000 was highly likely.

② Mid-term Correction (Late April): Re-classification of Wave Structure

In the weekly review on April 20th, we argued that with the extension of time and space in the rebound, by April 19th, this rally had lasted about 73 days, far exceeding the 54-day "Wave B" rebound. Therefore, we reclassified this rally as a larger "Wave D Rebound." This would subsequently lead to a "Wave E" decline, which would very likely break the $60,000 support.

③ Late-Stage Upgrade (Mid-May): Re-examination of Adjustment Degree

In the weekly review on May 18th, we reiterated that by May 17th, this rebound had run for about 100 days, approaching the cycle length from the $126,200 peak to the $60,000 low (approximately 122 days). This led us to conclude that the entire correction had a high probability of upgrading to a monthly-level adjustment. Consequently, we re-divided the wave structure.

④ Summary: The entire analytical process was a dynamic tracking of market structure evolution. Throughout this period, we consistently maintained that $60,000 was an important relay point in the larger correction, not the ultimate bottom of this bear market cycle. As of now, with the price breaking the key $60,000 support on June 5th and hitting a low near $59,100, the overall market movement has validated our previous judgment regarding the price breaching this level.

2. Wave Classification of BTC Based on Monthly-Level Structure

Bitcoin Monthly K-line Chart:

Figure 2

① Bitcoin's monthly chart shows: from January 1, 2017, to the present (only this complete dataset is considered), the structure can be divided into four segments:

• Segment 0-1 (Uptrend): From $751 (2017-01-01) to $69,000 (2021-11-10), lasting approximately 59 months (about 1,774 days).

• Segment 1-2 (Correction): From $69,000 (2021-11-10) to $15,476 (2022-11-21), lasting approximately 13 months (about 376 days). The maximum drawdown during this period was approximately 77.57%.

• Segment 2-3 (Uptrend): From $15,476 (2022-11-21) to $126,200 (2025-10-06), lasting approximately 35 months (1,050 days). This was the main impulsive wave creating a new all-time high, with a maximum gain of approximately 715.46%.

• Segment 3-4 (Correction): From $126,200 (2025-10-06) to the present, running for about 8 months (approximately 243 days), with a maximum drawdown of 53.17% during this period.

② As shown in Figure 2, the correction starting from the previous high of $126,200 (Segment 3-4) can be preliminarily identified as a monthly a-b-c three-wave adjustment structure. The market is currently in the C-wave decline phase.

• Wave A (Decline): From $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $60,000 (2026-02-06), lasted about 4 months (approx. 122 days), with a maximum decline of approximately 52.5%.

• Wave B (Rebound): From $60,000 (2026-02-06) to $82,850 (2026-05-06), lasted 3 months (approx. 90 days), with a maximum gain of approximately 38.1%.

• Wave C (Decline): From $82,850 (2026-05-06) to the present, has been running for 33 days. During this period, on June 5th, the price broke below the $60,000 support, hitting a low near $59,100. This breakdown confirms the validity of Wave C (decline).

In-depth Analysis of BTC Hourly Level Structure (Based on 4-hour Chart)

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 3

① As shown in Figure 3, the correction starting from the May 6th high of $82,850 can be subdivided into a 10-segment structure on the 4-hour chart. This includes two descending consolidation zones: Zone D and Zone E. The overall structure is clear, exhibiting a typical complex adjustment pattern.

② From the 4-hour structure perspective, the market is currently undergoing the 36-37 segment rebound. The first upside resistance is near the $65,000 level; the significant resistance lies in the $69,500~$70,500 zone.

2. Current Operational Judgment for Bitcoin

1. BTC Price Forecast for This Week:

Core Views for the Week:

• Monitor the test results of the $65,000 resistance and the $69,500~$70,500 resistance zone by both bulls and bears.

• Also, monitor the support effect when the price retraces to the $59,000~$60,000 zone.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: Around $65,000 (previous important low)

• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500~$70,500 area (previous high-volume consolidation zone)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Zone: $59,000~$60,000 area (previous important support)

• Second Support Zone: Around $55,000 (previous important support)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week (Excluding Black Swan Events)

① Medium-term Strategy:

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart (Position Monitoring Model):

Figure 4

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 4, the price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," technically confirming a transition to a bearish-dominated pattern. Last week, the market experienced a unilateral, sharp decline without resistance, and intraday rebound momentum was lacking. This market condition does not meet our established medium-term trend-following position-building principles, so we maintain a medium-term cash position and wait for clearer signals.

If a technical rebound occurs this week, short positions can be built according to the following three-level strategy:

• Weak Rebound Short: If the price rebounds to near $65,000 and shows signs of stalling, initiate a 20% medium-term short position.

• Strong Resistance Zone Add: If the price rebounds further to the $69,500~$70,500 zone and shows clear signs of resistance, increase the medium-term short position to 60%.

• Breakdown Chase Short: If the price fails to sustain the rebound near $65,000 and falls back, effectively breaking the $59,000~$60,000 support zone, opportunistically add to the short position up to 60%.

② Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% of capital. Set stop-loss levels and seek "spread trading" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using the 30-minute/60-minute chart as the operating timeframe).

③ For short-term operations, to dynamically respond to complex market developments, we have prepared two specific operational plans in advance: Plan A and Plan B.

• Plan A: Sell on Rally with Resistance.

• Entry: If the price rebounds to near $65,000 and shows signs of stalling, combine with the quantitative model's top signal, establish a 15% short position.

• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price corrects to key support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.

• Plan B: Add Positions in Strong Resistance Zone.

• Add Position: If the price rebounds further to near $69,500~$70,500 and shows signs of stalling, combine with the quantitative model's top signal, increase the short position to 30%.

• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price corrects to key support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.

• Plan C: Short on Effective Support Breakdown.

• Entry: If the price fails to rebound near $65,000 and falls back, effectively breaking the $59,000~$60,000 support zone, and combine with the model's top signal, increase the short position to 30%.

• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price declines to key support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.

3. HYPE Hourly Level Structure Analysis:

HYPE 4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 5

1. As shown in Figure 5, on the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE's rise from the May 14th low of $38.14 to the June 2nd high of $75.87 has clearly formed a seven-segment structure containing an "upward consolidation zone."

2. Last week's review had already warned: due to the momentum divergence at "Endpoint 47" coupled with the top warning signal from the "spread trading model," creating a resonance effect, the probability of forming a short-term high here was high. Market movements have confirmed this judgment: the price adjusted from "Endpoint 47" ($75.87) to "Endpoint 48" ($55.47), a maximum decline of 26.89%.

3. Currently, HYPE's price has stabilized and risen from the $55 support zone, and is in the process of the 48-49 rebound. The upside resistance lies in the $62.5 to $64.57 zone. If the price stalls and falls back upon reaching this resistance, it will continue to seek stronger support lower down.

4. HYPE Price Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week (06.08 ~ 06.14)

1. HYPE Price Forecast for This Week:

① Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance: $62.5 - $64.57 zone;

• Second Resistance: $68 - $70 zone;

② Key Support Levels:

• First Support: $55 - $57 zone;

• Second Support: $47 - $49 zone;

Core View for HYPE this Week:

• Observe the test results of price against resistance and support levels.

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week (Buy on Support):

This week's short-term trading for HYPE should follow the strategy of "positioning on dips, avoiding chasing rallies."

Short-term Strategy: Go long for a trial when the support zone stabilizes.

When the HYPE price retests the key support zone of $55-$57, or the deeper zone of $47-$49, and shows signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing, simultaneously combined with bottom signals triggered by the two models, consider a small trial long position. The position size must be controlled below 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

5. Special Notes:

1. Upon entry: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure principal safety.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit in the price, move the stop-loss correspondingly by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

The financial market changes rapidly. All market analysis and trading strategies need dynamic adjustment. All viewpoints, analytical models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and serve solely as personal trading logs. They do not constitute any investment advice or trading basis. The market involves risk, and investment requires caution. Please do not make decisions based on this information.