每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0711-0717）
- 核心观点：本周市场焦点在于宏观政策、科技公司估值波动及加密货币市场与股市的跷跷板效应。特朗普的政策试图将美股与美国国运深度绑定，而韩国股市的暴跌则促使资金回流加密市场，同时AI和半导体行业面临盈利验证与结构性风险。
- 关键要素：
- 特朗普通过政府入股、开设投资账户等方式，将美国国债焦虑转化为“美国增长”信仰，改变传统化债方式。
- 韩国股市单日暴跌逾8%，监管层考虑提高保证金、限制涨停板等措施，但散户资金已大量回流加密市场。
- SK海力士ADR溢价达50%，源于美国市场需求旺盛但初始供应有限，套利渠道无法短期平衡价格。
- SpaceX股价跌破135美元发行价，面临技术挑战和解禁压力，BIT融券服务提供做空工具。
- 贝莱德指出AI行情比互联网泡沫更克制，但风险在于盈利增长能否兑现，避免泡沫破裂。
- American Bitcoin持有8000枚BTC，但反向拆股能否拯救股价取决于流动性和后续融资不稀释股份。
- 韩国股市暴跌期间，约41亿美元资金回流加密市场，验证了“股市与币圈跷跷板”交易逻辑。
The information flow is too fast, making it easy for in-depth analytical articles to be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Pick" column sifts through the vast sea of information to pick out content with real judgment value, helping you filter out the noise, capture insights, and gain inspiration.
Macro Landscape
US Stocks Equal National Destiny: Trump Is Turning America into a Fund
Over the past 18 months, the president, a former real estate mogul, has done three seemingly unrelated things: having the government directly take equity stakes in companies, opening investment accounts for newborns, and vying for equity in AI companies. But they all point to the same goal: deeply binding the fate of US stocks to that of the nation.
Traditionally, there are three ways to address the anxiety over US national debt: raising taxes, cutting spending, and inflating away the debt (i.e., letting price rises dilute the real debt value). Trump's solution, however, is to first wield the government's powers—subsidies, grants, government contracts, export controls, and regulatory authority—as costs and bargaining chips to demand low-priced shares from large corporations.
The shell of a US sovereign wealth fund wasn't 'created under a pretext,' but 'the bullets have already been fired.' The US government has effectively acquired shares in at least 20 companies for free. OpenAI even voluntarily offered $42.6 billion in shares. This is because AI companies' dependence on national-level infrastructure is structural, not temporary. Being a government shareholder is not a cost; it is the strongest backing.
The Trump Account will significantly cultivate a generation's faith in 'American growth.'
KOSPI plummeted over 8% in a single day this Monday, triggering its seventh circuit breaker of the year. The market pointed fingers directly at single-stock leveraged ETFs. By amplifying the daily price movements of individual stocks, these products accelerate price deviations during volatile markets, creating a 'magnifying effect' that fuels rallies and deepens sell-offs.
The regulator's language has escalated, with the rare use of the word 'regret.' Three paths might be pursued simultaneously: raising margin requirements, imposing daily price limits, and adjusting the upper limit of leverage ratios. However, these may only be temporary fixes, not solutions to the structural root causes of market volatility.
Wolves of Wall Street, Stop Rushing into 2x, 3x SK Hynix ETFs
The risks of single-stock leveraged ETFs are becoming apparent, and the South Korean government is getting nervous.
Retail Investor Exodus? South Korean Stocks Plunge 9%, $4.1 Billion Flows Back to Crypto Market
The nearly week-long crash in the South Korean stock market is driving retail funds towards the crypto market. The seesaw effect between the South Korean stock market and the crypto space is becoming a continuously validated trading thesis.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Why is SK Hynix's US ADR Premium at 50%? A Stress Test of Market Structure
Strong US market demand met the limited initial supply of SKHY shares, while arbitrage channels couldn't immediately create enough new securities or short exposure to keep prices aligned between the two markets. In other words, SK Hynix's fundamentals created the demand, but the structure of the ADR market determined how far the price could deviate from the Seoul market in the short term.
SpaceX Drops Below $135 IPO Price: Is the Bottom Here?
$135 is just the underwriter's pricing, not the market's value floor. SpaceX recently faces challenges to its technological position and trust concerns following a launch failure. In terms of capital structure, a 5% free float and the August lock-up expiry are swords hanging overhead.
The BIT short-selling function allows shorting an equivalent number of SpaceX shares, providing a hedging tool for long holders.
Related reading: 'Stock Price Breaks Below IPO, First Post-IPO Flight Stalls – Where is SpaceX Headed?'.
'Sell the News' or Cycle Top? The Real Logic Behind the Plunge in Samsung and SK Hynix Stocks
The stock price decline is a combination of 'sell the news' events and cyclical panic; fundamentals haven't changed.
Also recommended: 'The Nuclear Energy Sector Justin Sun is Bullish On Quietly Sees IPO Wave' 'In Conversation with Robinhood Founder: The Will of Retail Investors Trumps All 'Smart Money''.
Web3 & AI
AI is not a bubble, but that premise depends on earnings growth materializing.
Prediction Markets
Western markets have integrated prediction markets into the formal financial system, while Asia's limited participation is leading to capital outflows, loss of information sovereignty, and lack of user protection. Asia's current task is not to block these markets, but to think about how to responsibly utilize this data within a regulated framework. By avoiding the discussion, leadership is effectively being ceded to foreign entities.
CeFi & DeFi
8000 BTC Can't Prop Up the Stock Price: Can a Reverse Stock Split Save American Bitcoin?
American Bitcoin's core differentiating advantage is its ability for large-scale mining and low-cost bitcoin accumulation; the core pressure point is whether this model can continuously increase holdings without issuing new shares, thereby diluting existing shareholders.
The upcoming tests are: first, whether the stock's trading volume and liquidity can stabilize; second, whether the company will release detailed documents explaining the custody and holding method of its 8,000 Bitcoin; third, whether subsequent financing actions can increase Bitcoin holdings per share, rather than simply buying assets with proceeds from share issuance.
Staking ETH Earns a Stable $46 Million – Why is BitMine Still Plagued by Huge Losses?
A $92.1 million loss from derivatives options completely offset the staking yield. Combined with continuously rising asset management costs and the company's aggressive share issuance, the profit margin for existing shareholders has been severely compressed.
Bitcoin & Ecosystem
Support Below 1%: Can BIP-110 Still Push Bitcoin Towards a Soft Fork?
Ethereum & Scaling
Robinhood Chain's Success Proves Ethereum is Not Dead
Multi-Chain & Cross-Chain
Revenue Surpasses Pump.fun for 5 Consecutive Days: The 'Lone Wolf' Developer Behind NOXA's Upset
NOXA Exits, Who Claims the Crown of Token Issuance on Robinhood Chain?
Week in Review: Hot Topics Catch-Up
Policy & Macro Markets
Iran states the US has entered a formal state of war;
US CFTC Chairman supports the CLARITY Act: Legislation is necessary;
US CFTC investigates Trump staff for allegedly using insider information from a teleprompter in prediction market trades;
Views & Voices
The Big Short: Is a 'Lehman Moment' Approaching? (Ed Zitron's Long Read) OpenAI is Doomed to Collapse, Global Stock Markets Risk Liquidation, Now is the Perfect Time to Buy the Dip in Hong Kong Stocks;
David Sacks responds to Chinese AI model Kimi K3 topping code benchmarks: US regulatory constraints may weaken competitiveness;
Serenity: Institutions are repricing humanoid robot businesses; overall Chinese manufacturer capacity may reach 100,000 units by year-end;
JPMorgan: Tencent remains the highest quality compound growth stock in Chinese internet, reiterating 'Overweight' rating;
Coinbase Stock down 30% this year, Wall Street believes it's near the bottom;
Bitwise: RWA and prediction markets hit new highs, crypto is forming a bottom;
a16z: Traditional finance doesn't want DeFi, it only wants the blockchain infrastructure layer;
Institutions, Major Companies & Leading Projects
DeepSeek advances IPO preparations, plans to file for IPO as early as year-end;
Coinbase opens registration to Chinese users (Analysis);
Uniswap initiates governance proposal to activate protocol fees on Robinhood Chain and burn UNI;
Base abandons social direction, founder admits strategic failure (Analysis);
Data
Actual cost of the US war with Iran reportedly reaches hundreds of billions of dollars;
CXMT pre-IPO market cap on Hyperliquid reaches $540 billion, surpassing Tencent;
Over 6,000 employees receive shares; CXMT IPO set to create mass wealth; CXMT online issuance final lottery rate is approximately 0.4714%; Profit potential for one CXMT 'allotment' is roughly between 3,000 yuan and 26,000 yuan;
SpaceX breaks below its $135 IPO price for the first time;
SK Hynix stock continues to rally, up 22%, hitting an all-time high;
Exchange stablecoin reserves rise to $93 billion, with Binance holding 57% share;
10 days after launch, Robinhood Chain total transactions exceed 38.72 million...
Attached is the portal for the 'Weekly Editor's Pick' series here. See you in the next edition~
