博弈关键周：BTC回抽确认与HYPE支撑争夺 | 特邀分析

This week, the market has entered a critical phase of contention.

At the macro level, marginal changes in Fed policy expectations continue to dictate the pricing rhythm of risk assets; in the crypto market, following the period of consolidation and correction, the divergence between bulls and bears is becoming apparent at key price levels.

This week's review continues with our established framework: based on multi-cycle trend structure analysis, combined with quantitative model signals, we analyze the weekly trends for both BTC and HYPE, and formulate specific short-to-medium-term trading plans.

It is important to note that all content in this article represents personal technical analysis records, serving solely as a reference framework and review basis for my own trading decisions, and does not constitute any form of investment advice. The market is always more complex than forecasts; strictly adhering to risk management and stop-loss discipline remains the top priority.

Key Trading Views Summary for This Week:

• BTC hourly level trend structure analysis (detailed in Part 1)
• BTC weekly trend forecast and medium/short-term trading strategy (detailed in Part 2)
• HYPE hourly level trend structure analysis (detailed in Part 3)
• HYPE weekly trend forecast and short-term trading strategy (detailed in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategy and Core Views:

• BTC Trend Forecast Validation: Last week, we strictly adhered to trading discipline. When the market presented an entry opportunity, we decisively established a short position of approximately 20%. The medium-term trading plan outlined in the weekly review was executed.

1. In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Hourly Trend Structure

Bitcoin _ 4H K-line Chart

Figure 1

① As shown in (Figure 1): From the 4-hour trend structure perspective, since the rebound started from the low of $59,100 on June 5th, the price action can be subdivided into a five-wave structure, corresponding to waves 36-37, 37-38, 38-39, 39-40, and 40-41.

② The overall trend displays a short-term ascending channel pattern (blue channel in the chart): its upper boundary is formed by connecting the rebound highs (point 37) and (point 39), and its lower boundary is established by connecting the correction lows (point 36) and (point 38). The chart shows that the price has broken below the channel's lower boundary at (point 40). The current rebound leg (40-41) can be seen as a retest phase to confirm the breakdown of the channel's lower boundary. If (point 41) fails to reclaim the area above the channel's lower boundary, the probability of the price retesting the previous low support at $59,100 will significantly increase.

2. Bitcoin Weekly Trend Forecast and Trading Strategy

1. BTC Weekly Trend Forecast:

Core view for this week: Focus on the result of the price retesting the short-term channel's lower boundary.

• If it holds effectively, the price is likely to continue its rebound within the short-term ascending channel, potentially challenging the key resistance area of $69,500 ~ $70,500.
• If the breakdown is confirmed, the market may revisit the core support zone of $59,000 ~ $60,000.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $64,500 ~ $65,000 (Near the lower boundary of the short-term ascending channel)
• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500 ~ $70,500 (Previous dense trading volume area)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Zone: $59,000 ~ $60,000 (Previous key support level)
• Second Support Zone: Around $55,000 (Previous key support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding Unexpected News Impact)

① Medium-term Strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 2

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 2), the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel", confirming the market structure has shifted to a bearish dominance. Following the plan last week, we entered a short position near $64,500, with the initial medium-term position controlled at around 20% of total capital. Subsequently, we will adhere to stop-loss discipline and wait for the next opportunity to add to the position.

② Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss orders, and look for spread trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using the 30-minute / 60-minute timeframe).

③ To dynamically adapt to the complex market evolution in short-term trading, we have prepared three specific operational plans (A/B/C) in advance.

Plan A: Tentative Position Building at Resistance Zone

• Entry: If the price rallies to the $64,500 ~ $65,000 zone and shows signs of exhaustion, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, an initial short position of about 15% can be established.
• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price corrects near a major support level and aligns with model signals, the position can be gradually closed to lock in profits.

Plan B: Adding to Position at Strong Resistance Zone

• Add to Position: If the price breaks the $65,000 resistance and continues to rally into the $69,500 ~ $70,500 zone showing signs of pressure, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, the short position can be increased to within 30%.
• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price corrects near a major support level and aligns with model signals, the position can be gradually closed to lock in profits.

Plan C: Effective Breakdown of Support, Follow-through Shorting

• Add to Position: If the price effectively breaks below the $65,000 support, continues to correct, and loses the $59,000 ~ $60,000 support zone, we can consider adding to the short position to within 30% when the pullback retest shows signs of weakness.
• Risk Management: Set an initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price falls to a major support level and aligns with model signals, the position can be gradually closed to lock in profits.

3. HYPE Hourly Level Trend Structure Analysis

HYPE_4H K-line Chart

Figure 3

① As shown in (Figure 3), on the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE has been in a correction since its high of $75.87 (Point 47) on June 2nd, finding support near $52.62 (Point 50) on June 10th, with the correction lasting about 9 trading days. Subsequently, the market initiated a strong upward leg (wave 50-51), breaking the previous high in 6 trading days and reaching a new high of $76.94 since the rally starting in January, indicating that bullish momentum remains strong.

② The decline from the new high has formed a clear three-wave corrective structure (51-52, 52-53, 53-54). The price is currently retracing to the key support zone of $64 ~ $66.

• Bullish Scenario: If the price finds effective support in this zone, the uptrend since (Point 50) is likely to continue, and the price will challenge new highs subsequently.
• Bearish Scenario: If this level is lost, the correction period will extend. The price may retest the core support zone of $52 ~ $54, which was the starting point of the previous uptrend.

4. HYPE Weekly Trend Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy

1. HYPE Weekly Trend Forecast:

① Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: Around $77
• Second Resistance Zone: $80 ~ $82

② Key Support Levels:

• First Support Zone: $64 ~ $66
• Second Support Zone: $52 ~ $54

Core View for HYPE This Week:

• Observe the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears over the $64 ~ $66 zone.

2. HYPE This Week's Short-term Trading Strategy (Buying on Support)

Short-term trading for HYPE this week should follow a strategy of "positioning on dips, avoiding chasing rallies".

Short-term Strategy: Test Longs on Support Zone Stabilization

When the HYPE price retests the key support zone of $64 ~ $66 or the deeper $52 ~ $54 zone and shows signs of stabilization and bottoming, combined with bottom signals triggered by the two models, consider testing a long position with a small size. The position must be controlled under 30%, and stop-loss discipline must be strictly followed.

5. Special Reminders:

1. Upon Entry: Immediately set an initial stop-loss.
2. When Profit Reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When Profit Reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous Tracking: For every subsequent 1% increase in profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% correspondingly to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets change rapidly. All market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article originate from personal technical analysis and are solely intended as personal trading logs. They do not constitute any form of investment advice or operational basis. The market involves risk; invest with caution. Please do not make decisions based solely on this.