For those still holding onto altcoins, just go for HOOD

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Recently, Robinhood (HOOD) stock has shown strong performance. Last night, it briefly surpassed the $100 mark, though it unfortunately failed to hold that level by the close. Nonetheless, I remain relatively optimistic about HOOD's future outlook.

During this recent downtrend, HOOD has been one of the few assets I have consistently been building a position in (including through swaps). So, I've long wanted to write an article about HOOD. In a previous Odaily Roundtable, I briefly shared my rationale for building the position. Today, I want to delve deeper into the topic while the stock price is performing well. A disclaimer is necessary: this is not investment advice, nor does it represent the platform's views. These are simply my personal thoughts when building my position in HOOD.

Multi-Faceted Bull Case Analysis

Regarding the reasons behind HOOD's recent rally, you can find many bullish explanations across different dimensions.

Let's start with the fundamentals. Robinhood released its operating data for May last week. Details are as follows.

• Total Assets: $377 billion, an all-time high;
• Funded Customers: 27.7 million, an all-time high;
• Margin Book: $19.5 billion, an all-time high;
• Event Contracts Volume: 3.9 billion contracts, an all-time high;
• Cash & Deposits: $18.6 billion, an all-time high;
• Options ADV: 11.6 million contracts, tying an all-time record;
• Equity Volume: $315 billion, second-highest ever;
• Options Contracts: 231 million contracts, second-highest ever;
• The only relatively weak data point is Crypto Volume: $12.2 billion, ranking only 16th in historical monthly data...

Positive factors on the news front might be more effective at stirring investor sentiment.

• Firstly, in the fastest-growing prediction market sector, Robinhood has started using its self-built prediction market, Rothera, to intercept volume from Kalshi. Going forward, related revenue is expected to no longer need to be shared with Kalshi. For details, please refer to our yesterday's article: "The First Prediction Market Concept Stock Has Arrived!".
• Secondly, in the IPO arena, SpaceX's historic IPO brought record-breaking traffic to Robinhood. More importantly, Robinhood's brokerage and clearing business unit, Robinhood Securities, received approval last week to act as an IPO underwriter. This means Robinhood is poised to play a more central role in future IPO activities (e.g., Anthropic, OpenAI).
• Then, Robinhood was selected by the U.S. Treasury to act as the broker and initial trustee for the "Trump Account". The so-called "Trump Account" is a tax-deferred investment account plan authorized by President Donald Trump on June 9, 2025, under the "Great and Beautiful" Act. It aims to establish government-funded savings accounts for the children of U.S. citizens born between January 1, 2025, and January 1, 2029. This means that in the coming years, millions of newborns in the U.S. will default to using Robinhood as their brokerage platform. For details, see "Robinhood Gains a New Batch of Investors, the Oldest is 1, the Youngest is -3".

On the market dynamics front, there are some more direct signals.

• Robinhood director Meyer Malka has been continuously increasing his HOOD holdings recently. Over the past week or two, Malka has accumulated over $50 million worth of HOOD.
• Institutions are also offering more positive price targets for HOOD. Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating and has raised its price target from $105 to $108. Mizuho's target is $115. Piper Sandler is the most optimistic, with a price target of $135.

Personally, my initial reason for building a position in HOOD was optimism about its Q2 earnings report. First, I anticipated a surge in equity trading-related revenue this quarter given the epic bull run in U.S. stocks. Second, I expected a significant spike in prediction market trading volume due to the World Cup, coupled with Rothera's revenue interception effect.

However, the reason I subsequently swapped a larger portion of my portfolio (mainly some remaining crypto assets) into HOOD stemmed from a different logic, which is the real core of this article.

An Alternative to Altcoins

In early May, a friend asked me what I had been buying recently. I mentioned HOOD. But at that time, HOOD had just dropped from above $90 due to a disappointing Q1 earnings report (mainly due to an unexpected $100 million "Trump Account" related expense), and its short-term chart looked quite poor.

My friend asked why. I briefly explained the reasons above. After thinking, he said it was a pity his positions were tied up, leaving him with little ammunition. I asked what he was holding. Predictably, it was mostly altcoins.

I told him then: "Instead of clinging to altcoins, you might be better off swapping into HOOD."

The background for this judgment is that, while cryptocurrency-related revenue has long been a significant part of Robinhood's total revenue, and HOOD's stock price has historically shown a strong correlation with cryptocurrencies, there have been recent signs that Robinhood is breaking free from its reliance on its crypto business and positively decoupling from this correlation.

Firstly, let's look at Robinhood's cryptocurrency-related revenue over the past five quarters. It's easy to see that the proportion of this revenue has been trending downward overall, and in Q1 it fell to a new low since 2025.

• 2025 Q1: Total revenue $927 million, crypto-related revenue $329 million, proportion 35%;
• 2025 Q2: Total revenue $989 million, crypto-related revenue $160 million, proportion 16%;
• 2025 Q3: Total revenue $1.274 billion, crypto-related revenue $268 million, proportion 21%;
• 2025 Q4: Total revenue $1.283 billion, crypto-related revenue $221 million, proportion 17%;
• 2026 Q1: Total revenue $1.067 billion, crypto-related revenue $134 million, proportion 13%.

Next, consider the direct price comparison between HOOD and BTC. Since the start of the year, HOOD has mostly maintained a similar trend to BTC, but a notable divergence has emerged recently.

Emphasizing these two points is mainly to illustrate that the valuation logic surrounding HOOD has begun to change. In the past, HOOD was often viewed as a "proxy stock" for the crypto market. Its business performance exhibited clear cyclicality in line with crypto bull and bear markets – boom times saw retail traders flood into Robinhood to trade altcoins, boosting fee revenue and sending the stock price higher; downturns saw retail exit, leading to a rapid decline in Robinhood's revenue.

But now, Robinhood is no longer as heavily dependent on its crypto business as before. Even if the crypto market continues its current sluggish state, its stock trading, prediction markets, Pre-IPO, and newly added underwriting businesses are still expected to support its earnings growth.

This doesn't mean the crypto market will no longer affect HOOD. Quite the opposite; if the crypto market returns to a bull run in the future, Robinhood's crypto trading revenue will likely explode in tandem, and HOOD will still benefit from the industry's growth dividends.

In simpler terms, the crypto industry can still influence HOOD, but HOOD no longer depends on it – if the crypto bull market returns, HOOD will rise along with it; if the crypto market remains sluggish, HOOD can manage just fine.

For anyone who still holds expectations for altcoins but is increasingly worried about liquidity drying up, narrative failure, and value capture issues, instead of continuing to pin hopes on a token whose next narrative catalyst is uncertain, HOOD might currently be a higher safety-margin option.