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Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

As "China's top storage stock," CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) finally landed on the STAR Market today, closing up 465.8% on its first day, with a total turnover exceeding 140 billion yuan and a market cap reaching 3.28 trillion yuan.

Simultaneously, on its debut day, it broke multiple records, including "first tech stock with an opening market cap exceeding 3 trillion yuan," "top of the STAR Market by market cap," "first individual stock with daily turnover exceeding 100 billion yuan," and "first new stock with over 100 billion yuan turnover combined with over 50% turnover rate," setting multiple A-share historical records.

With the first-day market performance now settled, the next question arises: can CXMT's stock price continue to rise? What is the target price? Currently, there is still some divergence in the market.

Debate on CXMT's Future Stock Direction: Nomura Bullish on 116 Yuan, Northeast Securities Gives 10-15x PE Estimate

As the "world's fourth-largest, China's largest" storage giant, CXMT's market position is beyond doubt.

According to data disclosed in CXMT's IPO prospectus, the company expects revenue of 110 billion to 120 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 612.53% to 677.31%; net profit attributable to parent company is expected to be 50 billion to 57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2244.03% to 2544.19%. In light of this, many institutions have given their own post-IPO assessments.

Viewpoint 1: Nomura Gives Buy Rating, Bullish on 116 Yuan, Market Cap Exceeds 7.7 Trillion RMB

This morning, international investment bank Nomura released a report giving CXMT (CXMT) a "Buy" rating with a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a 20x P/E ratio, implying an upside of 1239.5%. This valuation is twice that of US memory giant Micron (MU), meaning CXMT's stock price would be about 13.4 times the IPO price, corresponding to a market cap of approximately 7.76 trillion yuan.

Notably, in the report title, Nomura likened the industrial value of CXMT's DRAM chips to "the pearl in China's crown." According to their model projections, CXMT's revenue will surge from 61.8 billion yuan in 2025 to 290.7 billion yuan in 2026, 560.8 billion yuan in 2027, and 773.3 billion yuan in 2028; Nomura also expects CXMT's net profit attributable to parent company to rise from less than 1.9 billion yuan to 130.3 billion yuan in 2026, 277.2 billion yuan in 2027, and 393.1 billion yuan in 2028. The compound annual growth rates for these two indicators are projected at 63% for revenue and 74% for net profit.

It's worth mentioning that Nomura's assessment, which is nearly 2.4 times the current market cap, is not unfounded. It is based on a comprehensive judgment of dimensions including capacity expansion, technology upgrades, and price increases, and is also related to CXMT's current product structure, the memory super cycle, and the intended use of subsequent fundraising proceeds. For more logic behind this judgment, we recommend reading "Thirteen Times Bullish on CXMT?"

According to CXMT's prospectus, of the 57.9 billion yuan raised in this IPO, 7.5 billion yuan will be used for technical upgrades to the volume production line of memory wafer manufacturing, 13 billion yuan for core process technology upgrades for DRAM memory, and 9 billion yuan for forward-looking technology research and development. The market generally believes the final 9 billion yuan is earmarked for HBM direction R&D, the core business of memory giants like SK Hynix and Micron – high-bandwidth memory for AI chips.

In other words, CXMT is not satisfied with its current main DRAM business line but is also actively expanding into high-profit, high-demand sectors like HBM.

Viewpoint 2: Northeast Securities Estimates Valuation Range Converges to 3.2-5.7 Trillion RMB

Compared to Nomura's extreme optimism, Northeast Securities' bullish range is relatively conservative, but still implies over 42% upside from the current market cap.

To provide a reasonable valuation for CXMT, Northeast Securities offered market cap references from the following three aspects:

• Market Share Relative Valuation Perspective: Using US stocks as a valuation reference, analyzing the DRAM and NAND market shares of Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and SanDisk, splitting their valuations by different businesses, and considering CXMT's future market share, target market cap is 3.49 trillion yuan.
• Profitability Breakdown Perspective: By deconstructing CXMT's historical revenue and cost structure, using price and capacity as core variables, forecasting profits for this year and next. Net profit attributable to parent company in 2027 is 284.8 billion yuan, corresponding to a target market cap of 2.85-4.27 trillion yuan based on a 10-15x P/E ratio.
• Unit Capacity Market Cap Perspective: Calculating the unit capacity market cap of overseas listed storage companies in the DRAM business and using that as a basis, calculating a target market cap of 3.22-3.99 trillion yuan.

For detailed calculations and the reasoning process, we recommend reading "A New 'King of Stocks' Born in A-Shares, How to Reasonably Value CXMT?".

Viewpoint 3: Multiple ETF Funds Warn That CXMT's Debut Day ETF NAV May Deviate from IOPV

This morning, on the eve of CXMT's listing, several ETF fund managers, including China Asset Management and Harvest Fund, issued reminder notices. Some of their ETFs participated in the IPO of CXMT and valued it at the issuance price. However, the ETF's Indicative Optimized Portfolio Value (IOPV) only includes CXMT's issuance price and does not include its market price fluctuations. Therefore, the IOPV of the ETFs on CXMT's first trading day may differ from the fund's net asset value (NAV). Investors are advised to pay attention to related investment risks.

In this regard, a source from an ETF fund manager said that ETF IPO subscriptions are generally done together with active equity funds. The ETF's IOPV is strictly calculated based on the PCF list, and restricted non-component stocks like new shares are not included. CXMT's surge on its first day would cause the actual NAV of the participating ETFs to be slightly higher than the IOPV, a real deviation. In this scenario, potential arbitrage strategies could include buying the ETF while hedging with derivatives, retaining only the deviation's excess exposure.

In simpler terms, the IOPV (reference NAV) that investors see is calculated based on CXMT's issuance price of 8.66 yuan, but the actual fund NAV is calculated at the market price. Therefore, the IOPV would severely "underestimate" the fund's true value, making it appear as a discount. Essentially, this is due to CXMT's price surge at the open, while the investment system display interface has a delay, preventing investors from buying ETF shares at inflated prices due to market volatility and thus incurring investment losses.

Viewpoint 4: Analyst Believes CXMT's Surge Still Won't Change the Global DRAM Shortage

Today, Milk Road AI analyst Melvin published an analysis on CXMT's stock price surge.

He stated that in the past year, CXMT's global DRAM market share has risen from below 4% to approximately 7.7%-8%, and Q1 revenue this year increased by 719% year-on-year to 50.8 billion yuan. This growth is primarily due to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron shifting more capacity towards AI server memory (especially HBM), creating a supply gap in the traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5 markets, which CXMT has exploited to fill mid-to-low-end DRAM demand.

However, CXMT's current production capacity is far from sufficient to meet global demand. Its current monthly wafer capacity is approximately 290,000-320,000 wafers, lower than Samsung's ~630,000 wafers and SK Hynix's ~500,000 wafers. Additionally, US export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment are also limiting CXMT's rate of further expansion.

He believes that CXMT will still find it difficult to enter the HBM market in the short term, so it will not change the AI memory supply-demand landscape. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will maintain their advantages in high-margin products like HBM, server DRAM, and LPDDR5X, and the global memory shortage cycle may persist.

Simply put, the analyst believes that CXMT's listing surge will not directly translate into a linear increase in market share or a surge in supply in the storage industry, offering a relatively neutral expectation of price and market performance from a rational perspective.

Viewpoint 5: On-Chain Bullish-Bearish Divergence, Chinese/US Addresses Bullish, Korean Addresses Bearish

Beyond institutions and analysts, there is also a clear divergence in bullish and bearish sentiment for CXMT in pre-market on-chain trading.

According to monitoring by HyperInsight, on the night before CXMT's listing, attributable CXMT wallets on Hyperliquid showed: wallets labeled US, Hong Kong, and Mainland China were predominantly bullish, while wallets labeled Korea were the main bearish force in this sample.

Specifically, Korean wallets held approximately $760,000 in short positions, about 38 times the size of their long positions; wallets labeled Taiwan, China were also bearish, with net shorts of about $329,000.

On the bullish side:

• Wallets labeled US held $1.6 million in long positions and $345,000 in short positions, net long ~$1.255 million;
• Wallets labeled Hong Kong held $1.3 million in long positions and $431,000 in short positions, net long ~$869,000;
• Wallets labeled Mainland China only held $83,000 in long positions and $16,000 in short positions, net long ~$67,000.

Assuming the $760,000 short positions from Korean wallets were all opened pre-market at a uniform price of $6.48 without subsequent adjustments, and all at 1x leverage, the theoretical floating loss on the shorts is approximately $48,500, a loss rate of about 6.4%. Combined with today's closing data, the bulls came out loaded.

Viewpoint 6: CXMT's Upward Momentum Expected to Last for Days, Low Float, High Market Cap Will Continue to Fuel FOMO

Beyond the above information, the mainstream view within the crypto market still holds some confidence in CXMT's subsequent upward trend.

Key points include:

First, CXMT's current circulating stock float is only 6.63%, highly similar to the initial performance of SpaceX (SPCX) upon listing;

Second, the memory super cycle remains a market theme, with memory manufacturers like SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology continuing to expand production and advance chip collaborations and new fab construction. Analysts also expect SK Hynix's Q2 earnings to significantly beat market expectations, with positive industry news directly fueling bullish sentiment for CXMT;

Third, CXMT's unique status as "China's leading domestic storage stock" makes it a highly watched speculative target in A-shares and other capital markets. Combined with the previous "A-share premium effect," a 15-20x P/E ratio expectation is not unrealistic;

Fourth, despite "rumors" that some brokerages have internally banned speculation on CXMT, market performance shows that while institutions maintain some restraint, they still pay close attention. This suggests institutional buying interest for CXMT persists, thereby reserving some momentum for subsequent rises.

Finally, as a side note, according to Bloomberg Billionaires Index data, since CXMT's listing, the wealth of its founder, Zhu Yiming's family, has surged nearly 300% to $13.9 billion. He is now preparing to distribute 40% of this as bonuses to employees. This move, perhaps emulating SK Hynix's distribution of 10% of its annual net profit to all employees, might also, to some extent, slow down the pace of equity monetization.

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