BIT 投研：2022年の再現なるか？ワールドカップがビットコインの弱気相場の終着点に
- 核心見解：現在のビットコイン市場は、今回の弱気相場の最終段階であるC波下落の中にあり、50,000～55,000ドルが中心的な底値圏と予想されます。インフレの天井打ちが、次の強気相場の重要なマクロ的触媒となる可能性があります。
- 重要要素：
- A-B-C調整構造は、A波の60,000～69,000ドルへの下落とB波の83,000ドルへの反発を完了しており、現在はC波の下落局面にあります。
- C波の目標エリアは50,000ドル付近で、安値は2026年6月から7月のFIFAワールドカップ期間中に出現すると予想されます。
- 「恐怖と貪欲指数」は歴史的な低水準まで低下しており、2022年の弱気相場の底値構造と類似していますが、サイクル指標はまだ最終的な反転シグナルを発していません。
- ビットコインの実現価格は54,591ドルで、市場が割安圏に入ったかどうかを判断する重要な指標であり、通常、価格がこの水準を長期間下回ることはありません。
- マクロ環境は2022年と類似しており、依然としてインフレがリスク資産を抑制する主な要因であり、インフレの天井打ちが市場の方向転換を促す可能性があります。
The market is currently in the final stages of this Bitcoin bear market. The A-B-C corrective structure proposed earlier in early 2026 is unfolding as expected: Wave A fell to the $60,000–$69,000 range, Wave B rebounded to the $80,000–$90,000 range, peaking around $83,000, and the market has now entered the Wave C decline phase.
From a sentiment indicator perspective, the Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to historically low levels, showing high similarity to the bear market bottom structure of 2022. Although we are currently closer to a "tradable bottom," the cyclical indicators have yet to issue a definitive reversal signal. During this process, market focus is shifting from short-term volatility to the conditions for forming a bottom and the potential macro catalysts for the next bull market.
The Bear Market Enters Its Final Stage: The $50,000–$55,000 Range May Be a Key Zone
From a technical structure perspective, the top formation in 2025 is highly similar to that of 2021. Both cycles experienced a rapid surge, a break below the 21-week moving average, a phase of rebound, and then a renewed weakening. Historical experience shows that true bottoms are often accompanied by declining volume and a narrowing consolidation range, rather than a rapid reversal.
Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is at historical lows, stochastic indicators are in deeply oversold territory, and Bitcoin's price is also approaching two standard deviations below the weekly moving average. The area around $61,576 may provide temporary support. According to the cyclical analysis framework, the final market low has not yet appeared.
Based on Elliott Wave theory, since the bear market began in October 2025, Bitcoin has been following a classic A-B-C corrective structure. With the Wave B rebound ending after rising to $83,000 in mid-May, the current Wave C decline is underway. The target area may be around $50,000, with the low expected around the time of the FIFA World Cup (June 11 to July 19, 2026). Overall, the $50,000–$55,000 range could become the core bottoming zone of this bear market.
Peak Inflation May Be a Key Catalyst for the Next Bull Market
From a macro perspective, the current market environment shows certain similarities to 2022, where inflation remains the primary factor suppressing risk asset performance. In the last cycle, peak inflation served as a crucial turning point for the market, and a similar macro path may emerge again in this cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin's realized price is approximately $54,591. This indicator is an important reference for determining when the market enters an undervalued zone. Historical experience suggests that while the price may temporarily dip below this level, it usually does not remain there for long. At the same time, cyclical indicators have not yet released a bottom confirmation signal, and the actual low may still require 1 to 3 more months to be confirmed.
If the price completes its bottoming process and reclaims the 21-week moving average, while monthly cyclical indicators show a positive reversal, it could confirm the start of a new uptrend. Until then, the market will remain in a bottom-building phase.
Overall, this bear market is drawing to a close. The A-B-C corrective structure, cyclical indicators, and the macro backdrop all point in the same direction: the $50,000–$55,000 range most likely corresponds to the value zone of this bear market, while the $54,591 realized price represents an important long-term reference level. Although the exact timing of the low depends on the inflation trajectory and cyclical indicator confirmation, historical experience shows that a true bottom often does not appear as an obvious buying opportunity. As inflationary pressures gradually ease and cyclical signals improve, the next bull market is likely to begin near the $50,000–$55,000 range.
Some of the above insights are from BIT on Target. Contact us to receive the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Markets are risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve extreme risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
