每周编辑精选 Weekly Editor's Picks（0530-0605）
- 核心的見解：ブロックチェーンと暗号資産市場は、ネイティブ資産のバブルから、インフラと伝統的資産の融合への構造的な転換を経験している。同時に、米国の規制緩和と分散型プラットフォームのコンプライアンス課題という二重の圧力に直面しており、AIと伝統的金融の参入が業界の構造を再形成しつつある。
- 重要な要素：
- 米国30年国債利回りが再び5%を突破し、低コストな資本、労働力、エネルギーの時代の終焉と、より持続的なインフレ圧力を示唆している。AIの方向性が、将来のインフレに影響を与える最大の変数となりつつある。
- 米CFTCが初めて暗号資産永久先物契約を承認し、これまで「禁断の市場」と見なされていた分野への門戸を開いた。Kalshi、Coinbase、CMEが直接的な受益者となり、米国のデリバティブ取引の爆発的拡大が予測される。
- トランプ氏の保有資産や公の発言と、政府政策および資金の流れが重なり、半導体、AIハードウェア、量子コンピューティング企業（IonQ、Rigettiなど）が、次の「買い推奨」対象となる可能性がある。
- Hyperliquidなどの分散型永久先物プラットフォームは、規制対象となる米国企業を通じた流動性販売が不足しており、分散型決済メカニズムが法的に責任追及されにくいことから、コンプライアンス上の課題に直面している。
- 資産発行能力は、ネイティブな暗号資産から伝統的資産（米国株、米国債など）へと移行しつつある。オンチェーンの永久先物は、所有権ではなくリスクエクスポージャーを提供することで最も成功したアプリケーションとなり、Alpacaがトークン化された米国株市場の94%のシェアを占めている。
- Anthropicが密かに米国IPOを申請し、OpenAIに先んじて公開市場への参入を目指している。両社の競争は、モデルの能力から財務諸表の信頼性へと広がり、AI業界に新たな価格決定圧力をもたらしている。
- 暗号資産市場は短期的に圧力を受けているが、Bitwiseはこれを逆張り投資の対象と見なしている。Strategyは初めて少量のBTCを売却したものの、長期的な積み立てモデルは継続しており、これは信念の揺らぎではなく、主に優先株の配当圧力によるものである。
The information flow is too fast; in-depth analysis articles can easily be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Pick" column retrieves these valuable pieces of content from the vast sea of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and gain inspiration.
Macro Situation
30-Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5% Again; The Era of "Everything is Cheap" is Over
The three pillars that supported low inflation and low interest rates in the US over the past 50 years – cheap capital, cheap labor, and cheap energy – are simultaneously unraveling. There are also several "slow variables": rising government debt, intensifying geopolitical friction, and the spread of populism.
The combined effect of these risks is that lenders demand a higher risk premium to lend out their money – especially for long-term loans. This directly pushes up long-end interest rates, i.e., the yield on 30-year US Treasuries.
The US is bidding farewell to the low-interest-rate era and entering a new phase where inflationary pressures are more persistent and diverse. The direction of AI will be the biggest unknown determining future inflation trends.
After Pointing the "Midas Touch" at IBM, President Trump's Next Target Surfaces
Over the past year, the publicly traded companies that Trump has specifically named and praised are showing increasingly clear overlaps with his holdings, government industrial policies, and federal fund flows.
Perhaps most impressive was when Trump turned the White House South Lawn into a Tesla product launch event last year. In front of the media cameras, he sat in a Model S, calling Tesla a "great product" and the Cybertruck the "coolest design."
Subsequently, a series of companies including Dell, Intel, Micron, NVIDIA, IBM, Apple, Thermo Fisher, and others entered his public commendation list.
Some companies saw notable stock price movements after being named; for some, Trump's account had already established positions before the praise; and still others simultaneously received government contracts, subsidies, export licenses, or other policy support.
The next batch most likely to receive a "Trump shout-out" are companies where the government has already invested: MP Materials (MP), Lithium Americas (LAC), IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), D-Wave (QBTS), among others. According to a Wall Street Journal report, multiple companies, including IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), and D-Wave (QBTS), are discussing securing at least $10 million in funding support through "government equity stakes or quasi-equity arrangements." Quantum Computing (QUBT) and Atom Computing are also being discussed within similar frameworks. These quantum computing sectors are currently in a very early stage, but their uniqueness lies in the fact that they almost inherently sit at the intersection of national security and fundamental scientific research.
President Q1 Holdings Disclosure: Is Trump's Money Accelerating Towards AI Infrastructure?
In the first quarter, the largest sales from Trump-related accounts were concentrated in Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. The money flowed into: semiconductors, AI hardware, enterprise software, consumer electronics, broad-based indices, and some bonds and preferred stocks.
Simply copying these trades isn't very meaningful for three reasons: the disclosure lag; disclosed amounts are only ranges; and the accounts might be independently managed by third-party institutions, making external observers unaware of whether each trade was an active decision, portfolio rebalancing, or model-driven allocation.
Its real value lies in indicating directional changes. Three structural clues are worth considering: AI trades are moving from models and applications towards infrastructure; semiconductors are no longer just about NVIDIA; and the AI-fication of enterprise software might be the most easily underestimated aspect.
Also recommended: "Four Valuation Anchors, One Musk Premium: The Real Disagreement in SpaceX's IPO."
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Crypto is Dead, Long Live Perps
Over the past decade, crypto's core competency has been asset issuance. Now, native assets are heading towards a slow death, with liquidity and attention being siphoned off by old-world assets: US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, crude oil, indices... "Crypto is dead" refers to the era of continuous expansion driven by native assets has exited the stage.
The reasons for Hyperliquid's rise: On-chain Perps becoming CEX-like + trust transfer post-FTX + volatility in macro assets like gold and crude oil + the explosion of US stock trading.
If doing US stock Perps, a platform only needs to establish a contract pool around the price. Liquidity can be provided by ecosystem partners. Users trade price exposure without directly holding the underlying equity. This bypasses the heaviest part and captures the part with the most trading demand. This is what makes Perps both fascinating and insidious.
Perps don't create new assets; they create new casinos. They don't provide ownership, but they provide risk exposure. Their goal isn't to restructure the financial world, but to turn every asset into a "price" that can be traded 24/7, creating unprecedented liquidity and price discovery efficiency.
Today, crypto's most successful currency is the US dollar, its most successful asset is Bitcoin, its most successful application is trading, and the "most anticipated new growth" is now coming from US stocks.
In the short term, the crypto market will continue to face pressure. The tug-of-war over the CLARITY Act approval continues, SpaceX is about to IPO, Anthropic has filed a prospectus, and AI-themed news keeps dominating financial headlines.
Adding to crypto positions now might feel unprofitable, but the essence of contrarian investing lies precisely in deploying capital to areas with little attention, making counter-intuitive decisions by defying the trend – anchoring to fundamentals and value to identify quality assets. The long-term returns can be substantial.
After MSTR Breaks Its "Never Sell BTC" Promise: Panic or Opportunity?
On May 29, 2026, Strategy deposited 411.48 BTC (worth approximately $30.3 million) to Coinbase Prime, its first such exchange transfer in nearly two years. The transfer amount was less than 0.05% of Strategy's total holdings (approximately 843,738 BTC as of mid-May 2026).
A transfer to an exchange doesn't necessarily mean a completed sale; institutional holders often move Bitcoin for custody adjustments, collateral management, or OTC trade settlement. Strategy's STRC preferred stock – with an annualized dividend yield of about 11.5% – generates reasonable cash flow obligations. This is the primary driver for potential BTC sales, not a weakening of conviction.
Just two weeks before the Coinbase Prime deposit, Strategy purchased 24,869 BTC for about $2.01 billion, confirming its long-term Bitcoin accumulation model is still ongoing.
Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory continues to rely on post-halving supply contraction, institutional ETF demand, and corporate treasury reserve activities – not individual wallet movements.
Institutional crypto activity in Korea has moved beyond the MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) stage into specific business operations and equity acquisitions of exchanges.
Institutions are quietly intensifying competition to secure key financial infrastructure, including STO standard-setting, stablecoin payment rails, and the custody market.
Domestic infrastructure builders are becoming the core pillars of institutional business, constructing localized Korean rails that comply with the Bank of Korea's CBDC framework and local regulatory requirements, reducing dependence on foreign technology.
The strategy for overseas Web3 foundations entering Korea has completely shifted from retail community building to partnering with large corporations and financial institutions, as traditional finance accelerates its takeover of the market.
My Nine Years as a Web3 VC: Asian Funds Are Experiencing 'Hell Mode'
Over 9 years and 3 cycles, the logic of Crypto VC has fundamentally changed. This cycle presents structural opportunities for research-driven funds. Good projects actively seek institutions that can provide genuine non-financial value, not just those blindly offering high valuations.
Capital across the entire industry is shrinking. US funds operate differently; many have a 10-year cycle mentality. During the post-bubble phase, well-capitalized US funds have plenty of options. However, after rising to the peak together with everyone else, Asian funds fell and found themselves with nowhere to go, entering an extremely painful 'hell mode'. This is why many Asian Crypto VCs have disappeared.
The biggest problem in the crypto industry is the decoupling of tokens from value.
Truly great projects are only born in the most pessimistic times of each cycle.
Also recommended: "DAT Failed? The Public Company Betting on HYPE Has an Unrealized Gain of $1.25 Billion" and "HYPE Spot ETF Accumulates 1% for 14 Consecutive Days; Is $75 Just the Start?".
Web3 & AI
Seeking to Beat OpenAI to IPO, Anthropic Aims to Seize AI 'Pricing Power'
Anthropic announced on Monday that it has confidentially submitted its US IPO application, beating its rival OpenAI to the listing process. OpenAI has yet to follow up with its own filing. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated he "doesn't focus on the potential IPO timeline" and that the company "will go public when the time is right."
Anthropic filed first, pushing the competition with OpenAI – previously centered on models, revenue, and valuation – to the public market pricing stage. For investors, this competition is no longer just about "whose model is smarter." Now, it's also about who can turn the AI narrative into financial statements that the public market is willing to buy.
In prediction markets, most participants previously expected OpenAI to file for IPO before Anthropic. Filing first is about capturing the narrative, but it's also about taking on the risk first. The public market will scrutinize: how fast is revenue growing, are compute costs rising faster or slower than revenue, what portion of total revenue ultimately goes to partners, and are enterprise customers genuinely retained or just boosted by short-term AI enthusiasm.
The AI PC War: Don't Bet on Sides, Bet on Toll Booths
The AI PC has three layers of opportunity:
The first layer is the advanced manufacturing toll booth. Regardless of who wins, TSMC makes it easier to collect toll fees.
The second layer is the spillover of computing power and platforms. AMD and NVDA represent the x86 offense and GPU software stack extension, respectively.
The third layer is architectural diffusion and turnaround plays. ARM and INTC both have potential, but position discipline must be stricter.
From 'Old Economy Stocks' to 'New Forces': How AI is Revaluing Old Infrastructure
As AI moves from model parameters to actual data centers, the market naturally refocuses on companies capable of delivery and possessing infrastructure capabilities. This is why Dell, HP, Nokia, etc., are being seen in a new light.
Not all data in the AI era needs to be stored in the most expensive high-speed storage. Large volumes of cold data, training data, log data, video data, and archival data still require cost-effective, high-capacity hard drives.
To judge if an old company is genuinely being revalued, at least three criteria need checking: Are there orders and realized revenue? Have future guidance estimates been raised? Can profit quality keep up?
Prediction Markets
Polymarket Tests, Kalshi Approved: The Perpetual Contracts of Prediction Market Giants Arrive
Last week, Polymarket and Kalshi saw key developments. Polymarket's perpetual contract Beta version was opened for testing to select users, with access gradually expanding over the next 4 weeks. Kalshi received CFTC approval to list a Bitcoin perpetual contract, BTCPERP. One focuses on small-scale product testing first, the other secures regulatory approval first. The paths differ, but the signal is the same: prediction market platforms are no longer content with just event trading; they are beginning to enter the higher-frequency, more standardized derivatives market.
For prediction markets, doing Perps isn't because prediction markets aren't profitable, but to build another, more mature contract business alongside event trading. However, when going up against established giants, the brand and traffic of prediction markets won't automatically translate into competitiveness in contract trading. It remains a difficult path.
Policy & Stablecoins
On May 29, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued regulatory guidelines for 24/7 trading, emphasizing that, due to their digital infrastructure and global continuous trading characteristics, crypto-related derivatives are more suitable for round-the-clock trading and clearing.
This means the US, previously considered a "no-go zone for crypto perpetual contracts," has been opened up for the first time. The US CFTC has formally opened this market, which previously had almost zero market share, to US citizens and some domestic crypto platforms and CEM exchanges.
Direct beneficiaries of the new policy: Kalshi, Coinbase, CME. The US market is poised for an explosion in derivatives trading.
CeFi & DeFi
Regulatory Relaxation: Is the Path Narrowing for Hyperliquid?
The CFTC granted a reprieve for contracts. However, Kyle, a vocal critic of Hyperliquid and former Multicoin partner, poured cold water on the Hyperliquid community: "What you have now is a guarantee that there will never be a regulated US company to distribute Hyperliquid's liquidity."
To legally operate a perpetual contract trading platform in the US, three types of businesses and licenses are needed: DCM (for the trading platform itself), DCO (for the clearinghouse, i.e., the centralized clearing counterparty), and FCM (for the intermediary broker). All three are indispensable. However, the entire regulatory framework for operating trading platforms was designed, from the outset, to exclude venues lacking DCO status – including Hyperliquid – from broker access lists. This is because such Perp DEXs fundamentally do not depend on a "clearinghouse."
Another persistent concern is the age-old question: "Who bears the responsibility?" The instinct of regulation is to find an accountable entity: if something goes wrong, whom to summon and penalize. In the traditional framework, the subjects of regulation are tangible intermediaries like FCM, DCO, and DCM. However, under the banner of "decentralization," "who bears responsibility" remains a legal blind spot.
Hyperliquid faces three paths: remain offshore; fully go onshore; or continue pursuing decentralization until it passes the '8-prong decentralization test' of the Clarity Act.
Commanding 94% Market Share: Who is the Real Winner in the Stock Token Race?
Whether in CeFi or DeFi, virtually any stock token trading service you see has Alpaca operating behind the scenes. According to data disclosed by Alpaca on December 4 last year, the company held a 94% market share in the tokenized US stock and ETF market.
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