On November 2, US tech stocks were sold off again: the Nasdaq fell 1.07% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.37%, while Marvell plunged 12.72% after its $115 billion acquisition of Lumentum, fueling growing concerns over AI capital expenditure; the Dow rose 0.41%. Expectations of US-Iran peace talks pushed the WTI settlement price down 7.5% to $96.33. In crypto-related US stocks, Strategy added 811 BTC to bring its holdings to 849,327 BTC, with market cap at 0.85x the value of its holdings. The next day, focus will be on the midterm elections, AMD's earnings, and nonfarm payrolls.

The deal is scheduled to close in the first half of 2028—too long a timeline, with too many variables.

CZ: Binance covered theft losses with its own balance sheet, without borrowing, selling assets, or raising financing.

Trump: If we win, we'll give the American people a $1.2 trillion red envelope; if we lose, there could be large-scale attacks on Iran.

Last week, U.S. tech stocks came under pressure, with the Nasdaq falling 2% for the week, while the Russell 2000 rose about 1.3% against the trend, underscoring deepening market divergence. This week, earnings reports from Apple, Palantir, and AMD, along with U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, will take center stage. Returns on AI investments, corporate profitability, and employment performance could further shape market expectations.

Deleveraging Is Far From Over — "We just need to get through 2026 first."

On Friday, October 30 (US Eastern Time), all three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 2.86% to 25,437 points, recording its worst monthly performance since March 2025. The core driver of this sell-off was anxiety over AI infrastructure capital expenditures—Amazon's Q3 capital expenditure reached $75.9 billion with full-year guidance raised to approximately $220 billion, compounded by Alphabet's search advertising miss and Intel's Q4 guidance falling significantly below market expectations, sending the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 7.20%. Crypto-related US stocks declined across the board, with Bitcoin ETFs recording cumulative net outflows of approximately $111 million in October. Next week, focus will be on Apple's earnings report, October nonfarm payroll data, and the evolution of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The market is already repricing by order of verification: Vertiv is up 25% (orders verified), while Nvidia is up only 2% (share being diverted). Over the next nine months, the two hardest checkpoints are the January 2027 SpaceXAI cancellation window and Broadcom's December 9 earnings report along with SPV bond pricing.

Intel is still racing against time, while the market is already pressing it to deliver returns.

The core shift in this market cycle is that investors are raising their demands for AI commercial returns—capital has not abandoned AI. As long as computing demand continues to grow, the long-term investment opportunity in the AI industry will not disappear because of one or two earnings reports. But for companies whose capital expenditures continue to expand while cash flow has yet to improve, the market may no longer be willing to grant high valuations based solely on distant growth stories. Conversely, sectors with relatively clear profitability paths, such as healthcare, financials, and energy, may continue to attract capital attention.

After getting the performance right, what is truly difficult is seeing clearly: which good news has already been priced in, and which changes are actually worth repricing.

Capital expenditure, capacity bottlenecks, and geopolitical risks have all been placed on the table of AI infrastructure.

Alphabet's Q3 revenue miss triggered concerns over AI capital expenditure, with shares plunging 12.64% in a single day and market cap evaporating by $482 billion—the largest single-day decline in history. The Nasdaq closed down 1.38% at 26,184.73 points. After hours, Amazon and Intel earnings again fell below expectations, and Nasdaq futures extended losses by 1.88%. Strategy recorded $20.9 billion in operating profit for Q3 due to fair value changes in Bitcoin, but its average holding cost of $75,446 is now approaching the current price, with mNAV dropping to 0.82x; Binance disclosed that approximately $6.3 billion in assets were affected by an attack. Tomorrow, focus on the preliminary reading of US Q3 GDP and September PCE.

今晚的三季度GDP初值和9月PCE，检验的正是市场刚完成的这笔账，高利率要留多久。

A Google that doesn't like to overpromise, with a rising "full-stack AI," has run into "bad timing"—a market that only recognizes numbers and doesn't look at the future.

DTCC turns custodied securities into on-chain entitlement copies; the $30 trillion figure is the eligible universe, not the on-chain scale