NVIDIA Earnings Preview: $108 Billion Revenue Guidance, So Why Is the Stock Still Under Pressure?

Nvidia's next earnings report is about to be released, and one of the numbers the market is watching most closely is the company's previously issued quarterly revenue guidance of $108 billion.

What does this number mean? If Nvidia once again delivers revenue growth that beats expectations, will the stock price regain momentum? If revenue hits the target but gross margin declines somewhat, how will the market price that in?

BiyaPay market data shows that as of the close on November 10, US Eastern Time, Nvidia (NVDA) was at $168.89, down 5.47%. From $186.64 on November 6 to $168.89 on November 10, the stock pulled back about 9.51% cumulatively over two trading days. Against the backdrop of consecutive stock price corrections and a shift toward cautious market sentiment, the next earnings report will not only be a disclosure of results but also an important moment for the market to reassess the profitability of the AI leader.

$108 Billion Revenue Guidance: Can Nvidia's Growth Continue?

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, Nvidia reported revenue of $96.221 billion, up 106% year-over-year and 18% quarter-over-quarter. Among that, data center business revenue was approximately $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, continuing to be the company's most important growth engine.

In the same period, the company's GAAP gross margin was 75%, and non-GAAP gross margin was also 75%. In terms of revenue scale and profitability, Nvidia remains in a phase of rapid growth. More importantly, the company provided third-quarter revenue guidance of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%.

Based on that guidance, the revenue range is approximately $105.84 billion to $110.16 billion. Using the midpoint of $108 billion, that represents quarter-over-quarter growth of about 12.2% from $96.221 billion in the previous quarter. This means the company expects to still achieve relatively large-scale revenue growth next quarter.

But there is one point that is easy to confuse: $108 billion is the company revenue guidance Nvidia provided. It is not revenue that has already been realized, nor is it the analyst consensus estimate. Investors need to compare company guidance, market consensus expectations, and final actual results separately.

Why does this distinction matter?

Because stock prices trade on expectations. If the market already expected Nvidia to deliver $108 billion, then even if actual revenue reaches that number, it may not be enough to push the stock higher. Conversely, if the market expects more, and actual results reach the midpoint of guidance but do not exceed market expectations, the stock price may also come under pressure.

For investors watching US tech stocks, beyond earnings analysis, preparing trading funds in advance is also worth considering. BiyaPay supports US and Hong Kong stock trading, allowing users to convert USDT into US dollars or Hong Kong dollars before participating in the relevant markets, or to directly deposit US dollars to trade US stocks. It connects currency conversion and securities trading within a single account system, reducing the need to switch between different platforms.

Therefore, to judge whether this earnings report is favorable, one cannot look only at the $108 billion figure, but must look at where actual performance stands relative to market expectations.

Revenue Continues to Grow, but Can Gross Margin Hold?

If revenue reflects Nvidia's business scale, then gross margin better reflects the company's profitability and pricing power.

Nvidia's GAAP gross margin in the previous quarter was 75%. However, in its outlook for the third quarter, both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin are 74%, plus or minus 50 basis points, which is approximately 73.5% to 74.5%.

This means the company expects gross margin may decline somewhat compared with the previous quarter.

Why will the market focus on this change?

First, Nvidia's product mix is constantly changing. As new-generation products and system-level solutions advance, the product portfolio, manufacturing costs, supply chain, and system delivery methods may all affect gross margin.

Second, competition may also affect pricing power. As customers have more chip suppliers and in-house solutions, suppliers need to continuously prove their advantages in performance, efficiency, and overall cost.

Third, AI infrastructure construction is becoming increasingly complex. What customers purchase is not just a single GPU, but also CPUs, networking, racks, and complete systems. Changes in the sales mix of different products may affect overall profitability.

We can do a simple calculation: if Nvidia's third-quarter revenue reaches $108 billion, then every 1 percentage point change in gross margin corresponds to a gross profit difference of about $1.08 billion.

This is only a static calculation, not an actual profit forecast, but it is enough to show how important gross margin is for a company of Nvidia's size.

What investors need to watch closely is whether the gross margin decline is a temporary effect brought by new products and changes in product mix, or whether factors such as intensifying competition and rising costs are beginning to persistently erode profit space.

If revenue growth remains strong and gross margin only fluctuates slightly, the market may find it easier to accept; if revenue growth slows while gross margin continues to decline, the market may reassess Nvidia's future earnings elasticity.

AI Demand Remains Strong, but Can Compute Investment Really Translate Into Profit?

Nvidia's growth over the past few years has been inseparable from large technology companies' continued construction of AI data centers.

In the early stage, the market focused more on how many GPUs large model training required and how large the clusters needed to be. As AI applications gradually enter enterprise operations, inference demand, AI agents, and long-running complex tasks have also begun to become new sources of compute demand.

Nvidia continues to build its position in this direction.

In its second-quarter fiscal year 2027 results disclosure, the company mentioned that the Vera Rubin platform is entering full-scale mass production and disclosed deployment progress with relevant partners. At the same time, the company launched the Vera CPU for AI agents and continued to expand networking, storage, and system-level products.

This shows that what Nvidia hopes to provide is not just GPUs for training models, but a complete computing platform covering training, inference, agents, and data center infrastructure.

But investors need to note: a platform entering mass production does not mean all customers have completed deployment, still less does it mean the related revenue has all been realized. From mass production to delivery, and then to customer deployment and revenue recognition, it still takes time.

What is truly worth watching here is the commercial return on AI investment.

Large cloud service providers' continued investment in data centers will of course generate demand for chips and infrastructure. But customers ultimately need to generate revenue through cloud computing services, model invocation, enterprise AI applications, and other means to support the next round of investment.

If AI applications continue to grow and enterprises are willing to pay for compute, cloud service providers will have the incentive to continue expanding data centers; if compute utilization is insufficient, or AI service revenue cannot cover investment, customers may adjust their capital expenditure plans.

Therefore, investors cannot just look at how hot the AI industry is; they also need to see whether customers are willing to keep paying and whether compute investment can generate stable commercial returns.

Earnings Reports Are Not Just About Revenue; Cash Flow and Operating Quality Matter Too

For a high-growth company like Nvidia, revenue and gross margin are only part of the analysis.

I believe this earnings report also requires close attention to three operating indicators.

First, accounts receivable and collection status

Revenue growth does not mean cash has already arrived. As business scale expands, customer payment cycles, changes in accounts receivable, and actual collection status are all worth observing alongside revenue growth.

If accounts receivable grow significantly faster than revenue while revenue is growing, it is necessary to further understand customer structure, payment cycles, and revenue recognition.

This does not mean that an increase in accounts receivable necessarily indicates a problem, but it is an important auxiliary indicator for judging revenue quality.

Second, inventory changes

The chip industry involves product iteration, supply chain stocking, and delivery cycles. An increase in inventory may be to meet future orders, or it may be related to product mix adjustments and changes in delivery pace.

Therefore, one cannot isolatedly interpret an inventory increase as negative, nor can one completely ignore inventory changes. A comprehensive judgment should be made in light of orders, deliveries, and subsequent revenue.

Third, operating cash flow

Whether profit can ultimately be converted into cash flow is an important criterion for judging the company's operating quality.

If revenue, profit, and operating cash flow grow in sync, it shows that the quality of the company's growth is relatively better supported; if profit grows quickly but cash flow performance clearly lags, the reasons behind it need further analysis.

For investors, earnings analysis should not just chase a beautiful revenue number; more importantly, it is about confirming whether growth can continue, whether profit can be realized, and whether cash can truly be collected.

If Earnings Performance Is Good, Will the Stock Price Definitely Rise?

The answer is not necessarily.

This is the most common misunderstanding during earnings season.

Many investors are used to dividing earnings reports into two categories: beating expectations is positive, and missing expectations is negative. But for a company like Nvidia, which has extremely high market attention and whose future growth expectations have already been fully discussed, the stock price reaction is often more complicated.

For example:

If Nvidia's actual revenue reaches $108 billion, but the market had already expected the company to reach or even exceed that level, then after the earnings release, investors may believe the positive news has already been reflected in the stock price in advance.

If revenue meets expectations, but gross margin is below market expectations, or next-quarter guidance is not raised further, the stock price may also correct.

Conversely, even if a certain indicator is slightly below the market's most optimistic forecast, as long as the company's subsequent outlook is positive enough, the market may reassess future growth space.

Therefore, the stock price performance after the earnings release depends on the difference between actual data and market expectations, not just the company's operating data itself.

In addition, Nvidia currently also faces uncertainty related to a management investigation. Operating data and governance events belong to two different dimensions. A beautiful earnings report cannot replace judgment on the progress of the investigation, nor can short-term events cause one to ignore the company's actual operating performance.

Earnings Release Time and What Investors Should Focus on Next

Nvidia plans to report third-quarter fiscal year 2027 results on November 17, US Eastern Time. According to the company's arrangements, the earnings release is expected around 13:20 US Eastern Time that day, and the conference call is expected around 14:00, corresponding to about 5:20 and 6:00 Beijing time on November 18.

After the earnings release, investors can focus on the following questions:

• Did actual revenue reach the $108 billion guidance range, and where does it stand compared with market consensus expectations?

• Did the data center business continue to grow, and are the sources of growth becoming more diversified?

• Is GAAP gross margin within the previously provided range of 73.5% to 74.5%?

• Do next-quarter revenue and gross margin guidance continue the growth trend?

• Do accounts receivable, inventory, and operating cash flow match business expansion?

• How does management explain AI demand, customer capital expenditures, and new product delivery progress?

For users following the US stock market through BiyaPay, before earnings they can also learn in advance about the tradable instruments supported by their accounts, US dollar funding arrangements, and related fees. BiyaPay supports conversion between digital assets and US dollars or Hong Kong dollars and can provide eligible users with corresponding funding conversion and trading paths. Specific operations remain subject to the platform's actual support scope and account rules.

$108 Billion Is Just the Starting Point; Growth Quality Is the Key

Nvidia's $108 billion revenue guidance shows that the company still expects its business scale to continue expanding. But for investors, this number is not the complete answer for judging the company's value.

What truly determines how the market reprices Nvidia is whether revenue can be realized, whether gross margin can remain competitive, whether AI infrastructure investment can translate into sustained revenue, and whether profit can ultimately translate into cash flow.

Before the earnings release, the market trades on expectations; after the earnings release, investors must face actual data.

For Nvidia, the market has already witnessed its rapid growth over the past few years. The more important question for the next stage is: against the backdrop of intensifying competition, expanding capital expenditures, and higher valuation requirements, can it continue to deliver sufficiently convincing profitability?

That is what truly deserves investors' attention behind the $108 billion guidance.