The market will focus on whether AI investments can translate into actual profitability, as well as the impact of inflation, employment and other data on interest rate expectations.

US September CPI rose to 3.7% year-over-year, with inflation pressure pushing up rate expectations, weighing on both US stocks and Bitcoin simultaneously. This article combines BiyaPay's multi-asset observation framework to analyze the different transmission mechanisms across the two markets: US stocks face valuation and earnings scrutiny, while the crypto market relies more on spot absorption, ETF fund flows, and leverage adjustments.

The market's focus has shifted from the inflation data itself to its implications for the Fed's policy path and asset pricing.

The market's core focus is not the model's capabilities themselves, but whether AI technology can truly translate into revenue growth and long-term cash returns.

Last week, major U.S. stock indices strengthened overall, but chip stocks pulled back, with the market keeping a close eye on the AI supply chain's ability to deliver on earnings. This week (October 12–16), U.S. CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be released in succession. Combined with earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, ASML, and TSMC, these could further shape the market's assessment of inflation, interest rates, and the profit outlook for tech stocks. TSMC's September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year, and whether AI demand can continue to translate into earnings growth will become a key focus for the market.

According to reports, SpaceX is in talks with banks and asset management institutions for approximately $40 billion in financing to procure Nvidia AI chips. The proposed plan includes roughly $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade debt. The financing is still in the negotiation stage, which does not mean the funds are in place or that Nvidia's revenue has been realized. This financing plan reflects that AI compute competition is extending from chip supply to funding capacity and return potential. Going forward, the market will focus on the progress of the financing, the pace of chip deliveries, and whether compute operation revenue can cover equipment investment and financing costs.

Nvidia is reportedly in talks to further invest in or acquire Reflection AI, extending its footprint from computing power into the model ecosystem. Following the news, its pre-market shares rose slightly, though the market has yet to meaningfully reassess its valuation.

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On October 2, U.S. September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, yet the Nasdaq rose 1.2%. The cooling in employment eased expectations of a Fed rate hike, but long-end U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, indicating that funding cost pressures have not disappeared. Whether the U.S. stock rebound can continue will depend on the alignment of inflation and corporate earnings, especially whether AI investment can continue to translate into revenue, profit, and cash flow.

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After the crypto regulatory bill was blocked and the Fed's rate hike landed, Bitcoin still climbed back above $80,000. Over the past week, BTC rose about 4.9%, but is this rally driven by fresh spot capital, or by short covering and position repair? As of the week ending September 18, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw only about $6.2 million in net inflows, with a single-day inflow of $433 million concentrated mainly on Friday, indicating that funding pressure has eased somewhat but has not yet formed a full-scale return. Whether it can hold above $80,000 going forward still depends on whether ETF inflows continue and how the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and the overall liquidity environment evolve.

At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise rates by 25 basis points, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4%, the first hike since July 2023. What the market is really watching is not the rate hike itself, but the dot plot and Warsh's remarks on the future rate path. This article analyzes the market reactions of US stocks, the dollar, gold, BTC, and ETH, and, in light of inflation, employment, oil prices, and US Treasury yields, outlines the key observations for global assets going forward.

As the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting approaches, market expectations for interest rate policy are heating up once again. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke above 5%, the dollar strengthened, and gold came under pressure. Rising oil prices, inflationary pressures, and the U.S. fiscal situation have become important factors influencing long-end rates. High interest rates and a strong dollar are also affecting U.S. equities, Hong Kong stocks, and digital assets through channels such as valuations, liquidity, and risk appetite. The market will next focus on the Fed's rate decision and policy statements, as well as upcoming inflation and employment data.

The U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a procedural motion by a vote of 49 to 50, falling 11 votes short of the 60-vote threshold. Following the bill's setback, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $76,000, and crypto-related stocks came under pressure in tandem. This vote does not constitute a final rejection, and the CLARITY Act may still be renegotiated and advanced. However, significant uncertainty remains regarding the timeline for regulatory implementation and the specific provisions. Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations and dollar liquidity will continue to influence Bitcoin's subsequent performance.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5%, hitting its highest level since 2007, as persistently rising long-end rates have once again become a focal point for global markets. Factors including rising oil prices, the U.S. fiscal deficit, and pressure from Treasury supply are collectively driving market concerns about how long elevated interest rates will persist. Rising Treasury yields will exert valuation pressure on high-valued tech stocks while also influencing capital flows into assets such as gold and BTC. The core variable in the current market is shifting from a singular rate-cut expectation to a tug-of-war among inflation, fiscal policy, and liquidity.